2016年-世界发展银行全球_Fifth_Ethiopia_Economic_Update___Why_So_Idle__Wages_and_Employment_in_a_Crowded_Labor_Market_79页_7mb

Ethiopia Economic Update: Why so Idle? Wages and Employment in a Crowded Labor Market

Core Content

This report analyzes recent economic developments and the state of urban labor markets in Ethiopia, focusing on the reasons behind high unemployment and the role of wages and productivity in shaping the labor market outcomes. It also draws lessons from China's monetary policy experience (1987-2006) to inform Ethiopia's strategy for achieving a low inflation environment and enhancing competitiveness.

Main Points

1. Recent Economic Developments

• Economic Growth: Ethiopia experienced strong growth in 2014/15 (double-digit), but this slowed to 8% in 2015/16 due to the effects of the recent drought.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation was temporarily above 10% in 2015 but has since declined to 5.6% in October 2016. The decline is attributed to high cereal reserves and increased wheat imports.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit remained modest at 2.4% of GDP in 2015/16, with non-tax revenues compensating for increased spending on drought relief.
• Export Performance: Goods exports declined again in 2015/16, and the current account deficit worsened to 10.4% of GDP. The real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated significantly since 2010, affecting export competitiveness.
• Sectoral Contributions: Construction and services sectors were the main contributors to GDP growth in 2015/16. Investment and private consumption also played significant roles in demand-side growth.

2. Urban Labor Market Trends

• Unemployment: Urban unemployment in the formal sector has decreased from 23% in 2004 to 17% in 2015, but it remains high compared to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) averages.
• Wage Trends: Wages have increased with higher education levels, but returns on education have declined over the past decade.
• Labor Productivity: Low productivity in unskilled labor is a major constraint, keeping wages low and preventing market clearance.
• Job Search Costs: High costs of job search, especially transportation, contribute to unemployment. Technology can help reduce these costs.
• Sectoral Employment: The service sector is the largest employer in urban areas, while manufacturing and construction are more important in larger cities.

3. Structural Challenges

• Inclusiveness of Growth: While structural change has driven growth, it has not been sufficiently inclusive, especially for non-graduates.
• Education and Employment: There is a lack of sufficient job opportunities for those with primary and secondary education.
• Private Sector Constraints: Low productivity in the private sector limits wage adjustments and job creation for less-skilled workers.
• Migration Impact: Rural-urban migration has increased pressure on urban labor markets, contributing to unemployment.

Key Information

Economic Growth and Inflation

• Ethiopia's economy grew at 8% in 2015/16, below the government's target of 11.4% under GTP II.
• Inflation remained stable at 5.6% in October 2016, down from 11.8% in October 2015.
• Food inflation, which constitutes about 53% of the household consumption basket, declined sharply from 16.2% in 2015 to 3.4% in 2016.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy

• Fiscal deficit was modest, supported by increased non-tax revenues from state-owned enterprises and windfall gains.
• The monetary policy stance remained tight, keeping non-food price inflation in single digits.
• The real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated by 84% since 2010, hurting export competitiveness.

Employment and Unemployment

• Urban unemployment has decreased over the past decade but remains high.
• Unemployment is particularly pronounced among the young and moderately educated.
• Temporary employment and job queuing are common among educated workers, but this does not fully explain the high unemployment rate.

Labor Market Efficiency

• Urban labor markets are dominated by wage employment, with the public sector accounting for almost half of all wage jobs.
• Low productivity in the private sector limits wage adjustments and job creation.
• There is a need for improved labor productivity in low-skill jobs to increase real wages and reduce unemployment.

Policy Recommendations

1. Encourage Firm Creation: Promote job creation in sectors like construction, manufacturing, and services that are more likely to employ non-graduates.
2. Enhance Labor Productivity: Address constraints in accessing capital to improve productivity in the low-skill segment.
3. Invest in Job Training: Expand both formal and on-the-job training programs to improve the skill base of workers.
4. Implement Targeted Safety Nets: Provide financial support and skills training to the unemployed to improve their employability.
5. Leverage ICT: Use technology to improve access to job information and reduce search costs.

Conclusion

Despite strong economic growth, Ethiopia faces significant challenges in its urban labor markets, including high unemployment and low productivity in unskilled labor. The report highlights the need for structural reforms, skill development, and a more competitive exchange rate to ensure inclusive growth and reduce poverty. Lessons from China's monetary policy experience are used to guide Ethiopia's strategy for maintaining low inflation and fostering economic stability.