Tuhu Car (9690 HK) Summary
Core Content
Tuhu Car is a company that has been identified as a beneficiary of industry consolidation and is expected to gain market share in the coming years. The report maintains a BUY rating but has trimmed the target price from HK$23.00 to HK$19.00, based on a 20x adjusted FY26E P/E ratio. Despite a lower-than-expected gross margin in 2H25 due to aggressive pricing, the company's strong store expansion and improved franchise profitability are seen as positive indicators for future growth.
Main Points
- Market Share Strategy: Tuhu is focusing on increasing its market share through accelerated store openings and improved franchise profitability, which is considered a right strategy amid industry consolidation and evolving after-sales service landscape.
- Store Expansion: The company plans to add over 1,000 new stores in FY26E, with more than 90% of stores with 6+ months being profitable and an average payback period of 30 months.
- Projected Store Growth: The store count is expected to reach 10,000 by FY27E, driven by industry consolidation and after-sales service trends.
- Financial Performance in 2H25:
- Revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB8.6bn, exceeding the forecast.
- Gross margin fell to 21.3%, below expectations due to aggressive pricing.
- Adjusted net profit rose 9% YoY to RMB290mn but fell 29% HoH, lower than the prior forecast.
- Earnings Projections:
- FY26E revenue is projected to grow 11% YoY to RMB18.3bn.
- Adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 5% YoY to RMB738mn, though this is 16% lower than the prior forecast.
- Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow 27% YoY in FY27E, with a projected revenue growth of 9% YoY and a gross margin of 24.5%.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric |
FY23A |
FY24A |
FY25A |
FY26E |
FY27E |
| Revenue (RMB mn) |
13,601 |
14,759 |
16,462 |
18,285 |
19,992 |
| YoY Growth (%) |
17.8 |
8.5 |
11.5 |
11.1 |
9.3 |
| Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) |
481.3 |
624.1 |
700.1 |
738.5 |
940 |
| EPS (Reported) (RMB) |
20.80 |
0.60 |
0.53 |
0.59 |
0.83 |
| P/E (Adjusted) (x) |
8.0 |
15.5 |
13.7 |
12.9 |
10.0 |
| P/B (x) |
0.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
| ROE (%) |
na |
10.4 |
8.5 |
7.7 |
8.4 |
Key Risks
- Slower network expansion
- Lower-than-expected revenue or margins
- Sector de-rating
Analysts
Stock Data
| Metric |
Value (HK$) |
| Market Cap (mn) |
11,283.1 |
| Avg 3 mths t/o (mn) |
14.4 |
| 52w High/Low |
20.90/13.51 |
| Total Issued Shares (mn) |
826.6 |
Shareholding Structure
| Shareholder |
Percentage |
| Tencent Holdings |
19.2% |
| Mr. Chen Min |
10.0% |
Share Performance (12-mth)
| Period |
Absolute |
Relative |
| 1-mth |
-10.8% |
-6.8% |
| 3-mth |
-14.5% |
-13.1% |
| 6-mth |
-32.8% |
-29.5% |
Earnings Revision
| Metric |
New (RMB mn) |
Old (RMB mn) |
Diff (%) |
| Revenue (FY25A) |
16,462 |
16,263 |
1.2% |
| Gross Profit (FY25A) |
3,968 |
4,109 |
-3.4% |
| Operating Profit (FY25A) |
252 |
413 |
-38.9% |
| Net Profit (FY25A) |
420 |
560 |
-24.9% |
| Adjusted Net Profit (FY25A) |
700 |
761 |
-7.9% |
| Gross Margin (FY25A) |
24.1% |
25.3% |
-1.2 ppts |
| Operating Margin (FY25A) |
1.5% |
3.1% |
-1.6 ppts |
| Net Margin (FY25A) |
4.3% |
5.5% |
-0.9 ppts |
| Adjusted Net Margin (FY25A) |
4.3% |
4.7% |
-0.4 ppts |
CMBIGM vs Consensus
| Metric |
CMBIGM (RMB mn) |
Consensus (RMB mn) |
Diff (%) |
| Revenue (FY25A) |
16,462 |
16,347 |
0.7% |
| Gross Profit (FY25A) |
3,968 |
4,156 |
-4.5% |
| Operating Profit (FY25A) |
252 |
513 |
-50.9% |
| Net Profit (FY25A) |
420 |
560 |
-24.9% |
| Adjusted Net Profit (FY25A) |
700 |
764 |
-8.4% |
| Gross Margin (FY25A) |
24.1% |
25.4% |
-1.3 ppts |
| Operating Margin (FY25A) |
1.5% |
3.1% |
-1.6 ppts |
| Net Margin (FY25A) |
4.3% |
4.7% |
-0.4 ppts |
| Adjusted Net Margin (FY25A) |
4.3% |
5.5% |
-0.9 ppts |
Analyst Certification
The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation is related to the specific views expressed.
CMBIG Ratings
- BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
- HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
- SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
- OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
- MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
- UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
Important Disclosures
- There are risks involved in transacting in any securities.
- The report is not tailored for all investors.
- Past performance does not indicate future performance.
- CMBIGM recommends independent evaluation and professional financial advice.
Legal Restrictions
- UK: Only for persons falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
- US: Only for "major US institutional investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6.
- Singapore: Distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an Exempt Financial Adviser.
