2025-06-09-Jefferies-今日JEDI_-交易_Saipem7_美国天然气_航运_EE_GPRK_9页_133kb

Key Summary of Jefferies Global Energy Equity Research Report

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Event: Weekly Global Energy Team Discussion – Covers energy macro environment, sector developments, recently published research, expert events, investor marketing, roadshows, and a poll question.
• Next Call: Scheduled for June 9, 2025, at 10:00 AM EDT / 3:00 PM BST / 4:00 PM CEST (30 minutes). Attendees can register for updates.
• Recent Research Highlights:
  • "Not Acting Like Most Expected…" discussing OPEC+ decisions and sector performance.
  • "Refining Margins Down": Analysis of current margins.
  • "Natural Gas Inventory Build Above Expectations": Feedback on inventory levels.
  • "EE - Excelerating LNG": Initiation at Buy with price target $39.
  • "GPRK – First Take": Discusses the company's valuation based on net asset value under Brent oil price assumptions.
• Company Valuations and Price Targets:
  • Excelerate Energy Inc (EE): Target price based on 7.0x forward EBITDA on '27 EBITDA of $525mn. Risks include FSRU contracting and LNG demand issues; run rate E$ average price achieved is ~$42.30 WTI.
  • Geopark Limited (GPRK): Price target aligned with NAV under $70/bbl Brent, with risks related to oil price drops, currency, fiscal changes, infrastructure access, and political risks in Latin America.
  • Saipem SpA (SPM IM): Average price target of €3.30, with risks from unsuccessful project execution and macro slowdown.
  • Subsea 7 S.A. (SUBC NO): Average price target of NOK220, risks include project execution and deeper water subsea growth.
• Key Risks Discussed:
  • General: Global macro slowdown potential impact; commodity price volatility.
  • Energy-Specific: Transition risks, geopolitical factors, environmental concerns.
  • Company-Specific Risks: Lowered FCF estimates for EE, financial health and debt management for EE and GPRK.
• Franchise Picks: Buy-rated stocks including Excelerate Energy, Geopark Limited, Saipem SpA, and Subsea 7 S.A., with focus on growth potential and return projections.
• Analyst Certifications: All views reflect personal opinions, and disclosures adhere to regulatory standards, including compensation links to investment banking incomes.
• Rating Summary: Recommendations consist of Buy, Hold, Underperform, or suspended ratings, with price targets normalized to local currencies based on prior day's exchange rates.