2018年-ECB欧洲央行_ESS_–_ESCB_quality_assessment_report_on_statistics_underlying_the_Macroeconomic_Imbalance_Procedure_annual_report_for_2017_31页_631kb

ESS-ESCB Quality Assessment Report on MIP Statistics (2018)

I. Executive Summary

I.1 2017 Annual Report on MIP Statistics

The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) is part of the European Semester, a framework for coordinating economic policies in the EU. The European Statistical System (ESS), particularly Eurostat, and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), including the European Central Bank (ECB), provide harmonised and high-quality macroeconomic statistics essential for the MIP. These statistics ensure effective macroeconomic surveillance and support the MIP process by being reliable, timely, and comprehensive.

I.2 European Law and Quality Assurance

The quality of macroeconomic and financial statistics is ensured by European law and quality assurance processes. Both ESS and ESCB follow similar principles, which are aligned with global standards from the UN, IMF, and OECD. These principles are embedded in the European Statistics Code of Practice and the ESCB Public Commitment on European Statistics. Legal frameworks also regulate the quality assurance and monitoring procedures for most MIP statistics, ensuring independence from adjustments in the scoreboard indicators.

I.3 High Quality and Cost-Effectiveness

Macroeconomic statistics must be reliable and timely while being cost-effective. The ESS and ESCB aim to balance timeliness, accuracy, reliability, detail, and cost. Quality improvements are evaluated based on these trade-offs. The ESA 2010 and BPM6 frameworks contribute significantly to the comparability of statistics across EU Member States, though some countries still face challenges in full implementation.

I.4 Main Observations and Recommendations

The MIP statistics are largely based on ESA 2010 and BPM6 standards, ensuring comparability and consistency. However, there are areas for improvement:

• GDP statistics are crucial for many MIP indicators, but some countries (e.g., Croatia, Greece) have reservations on GNI data.
• Balance of Payments (BoP) and International Investment Position (IIP) data show differences in some countries, requiring further work.
• Nominal Unit Labour Costs (NULC) are robust and harmonised, but detailed industry-level data is less complete.
• Housing price and government finance statistics have improved with legal frameworks and quality assurance mechanisms.
• Labour market statistics are highly comparable across Member States.

II. Introduction

The MIP is governed by Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011, part of the 2011 "six-pack" legislation, and includes a scoreboard of 14 headline indicators and 28 auxiliary indicators. The ESS and ESCB have been working together to ensure the quality and reliability of these statistics for years. The ECOFIN Council has consistently emphasized the importance of cooperation between ESS and ESCB for improving the quality of MIP statistics.

The report is structured into two parts:

• Section I: General considerations on the quality framework for MIP statistics.
• Section II: Detailed analysis of the quality assessment for each statistical domain.

III. General Considerations on MIP Statistics Quality

III.1 Macroeconomic Statistics at the Core of MIP

The MIP indicators are derived from macroeconomic and financial statistics produced by ESS and ESCB. These statistics are collected under Union legislation and are used for economic and monetary policy decisions. They are also referenced by international organizations like the IMF and OECD.

III.2 Quality Assurance Framework

The quality assurance of MIP statistics is ensured by both ESS and ESCB, which share similar principles on data quality. These principles are reflected in the European Statistics Code of Practice and the ESCB Public Commitment. The legal basis and data collection methods are central to the quality of the statistics.

III.3 Implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)

In November 2016, Eurostat and ECB/DG Statistics signed an MoU to enhance the quality assurance of MIP statistics. The MoU includes two datasets:

• Balance of Payments and IIP
• Financial Accounts

The MoU promotes mutual recognition of quality frameworks and establishes a three-level quality reporting system. It also supports joint visits to Member States to assess data quality and consistency.

III.4 High Quality and Cost-Effectiveness

The ESS and ESCB aim to produce cost-effective statistics that are fit for purpose. They balance timeliness and detail in data collection. The use of surveys, administrative data, and estimations allows for a comprehensive yet efficient statistical process. Expert judgment plays a significant role, but it must be supported by qualified human and financial resources.

IV. Key Features of Quality Assessment

IV.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

• Institutional Issues: Governed by ESA 2010 and legal frameworks.
• Compilation Process: Based on national accounts and GNI.
• Quality Assessment: High quality and comparability, though reservations exist for some countries.

IV.2 External Imbalances and Competitiveness

• Balance of Payments (BoP) and IIP: Based on BPM6, with incomplete implementation in some countries.
• Real Effective Exchange Rate: Harmonised but with methodological challenges.
• Nominal Unit Labour Costs (NULC): Robust and harmonised at the aggregate level, but less detailed data is incomplete.

IV.3 Internal Imbalances

• Housing Price Statistics: Improved by a 2013 legal framework, but Greece still has data gaps.
• Financial Accounts: Enhanced by ESA 2010, but implementation is incomplete in some countries.
• Government Finance Statistics: Strengthened by EDP processes and legal frameworks, with reservations for France, Belgium, and Hungary.
• Labour Market Statistics: Based on EU Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS), with high accuracy and comparability.

V. Annex - MIP Scoreboard Indicators

• A list of 14 headline indicators used for early identification and monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances.
• These indicators support multilateral policy recommendations.

VI. Annex - MIP Auxiliary Indicators

• A list of 28 auxiliary indicators used for complementary analysis without indicative thresholds.

VII. List of Abbreviations

• ESS: European Statistical System
• ESCB: European System of Central Banks
• MIP: Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure
• ESA 2010: European System of Accounts 2010
• BPM6: Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual
• EDP: European Data Portal
• CMFB: Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics
• NSI: National Statistical Institute
• NCB: National Central Bank
• NULC: Nominal Unit Labour Costs
• GNI: Gross National Income
• GDP: Gross Domestic Product