20150921-兴业证券-Weekly_A-share_Market_Recommendations_19页_436kb

Weekly A-share Market Recommendations Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides weekly stock recommendations from the Industrial Securities Research Institute for September 21, 2015, focusing on several key sectors including Aviation, Real Estate, Chemical Engineering, Construction, and others. It highlights specific companies, their EPS forecasts, investment ratings, and potential risks and catalysts for growth.

Top Stock Recommendations

Main Points and Key Information

China Southern Air (600029: SH)

• Sector: Aviation
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.80 (2015), CNY 0.95 (2016), / (2017)
• Rating: OUTPERFORM
• Key Highlights:
  • High passenger transport rate and capacity utilization.
  • Expected to receive CNY 8 billion in profit for 2015 with continued growth.
  • High-beta airline stocks at reasonable valuations.
• Risks:
  • Macroeconomic downturn, oil price surges, exchange rate depreciation, high-speed train competition.

Kingfa Sci. & Tech (600143: SH)

• Sector: Chemical Engineering
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.36 (2015), CNY 0.46 (2016), CNY 0.60 (2017)
• Rating: BUY
• Key Highlights:
  • Strong position in modified plastics.
  • Expanding into biodegradable plastics and carbon fiber composites.
  • Established supply chain subsidiary to boost earnings.
• Risks:
  • Slower-than-expected project progress.

Guoxing Rongda Real Estate (000838: SZ)

• Sector: Real Estate
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.60 (2015), CNY 0.75 (2016), CNY 0.86 (2017)
• Rating: BUY
• Key Highlights:
  • Strong financial backing from Chongqing Casin Group.
  • Private placement at higher price with extended lock-up period.
• Risks:
  • Private placement may fail to meet expectations.

Shandong Meichen Science & Tech (300237: SZ)

• Sector: Construction
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.72 (2015), CNY 1.18 (2016), CNY 1.57 (2017)
• Rating: BUY
• Key Highlights:
  • Post-acquisition growth in auto parts and environmental protection.
  • Undervalued stock with high margin of safety.
• Risks:
  • M&A may not deliver expected results.
  • Lower-than-expected new orders.

Shenzhen Victor Onward Textile Industrial (000018: SZ)

• Sector: Conglomerates
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.88 (2015), CNY 1.40 (2016), CNY 1.84 (2017)
• Rating: BUY
• Key Highlights:
  • Backdoor listing via Sino Great Wall International.
  • Overseas expansion and 'One Belt One Road' projects.
  • Strong growth potential in M&A and online platforms.
• Risks:
  • LNG cost inefficiency.
  • Excessive debt.
  • Potential delays in hydrogen storage development.

Lander Sports Development (000558: SZ)

• Sector: Real Estate
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.09 (2015), CNY 0.21 (2016), CNY 0.17 (2017)
• Rating: OUTPERFORM
• Key Highlights:
  • Expansion into sports industry with new subsidiaries.
  • Active M&A strategy for online sports platform.
• Risks:
  • Slower project progress.

Macrolink Real Estate (000620: SZ)

• Sector: Real Estate
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.35 (2015), CNY 0.40 (2016), CNY 0.47 (2017)
• Rating: BUY
• Key Highlights:
  • Strong land resources and NAV of CNY 19.7 billion.
  • Transformation into cultural tourism with overseas expansion.
• Risks:
  • Systematic real estate risks.

Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings (300226: SZ)

• Sector: Steel
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.17 (2015), CNY 0.66 (2016), CNY 1.03 (2017)
• Rating: OUTPERFORM
• Key Highlights:
  • Undervalued in steel e-commerce sector.
  • Expansion of ecosystem and e-commerce sales.
• Risks:
  • Steel price volatility.
  • Market volatility.

Zhejiang Kaier New Materials (300234: SZ)

• Sector: Construction Material
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.53 (2015), CNY 0.70 (2016), CNY 0.92 (2017)
• Rating: OUTPERFORM
• Key Highlights:
  • Key player in vitreous enamel cladding panel market.
  • Strategic focus on energy-saving and environmental protection.
• Risks:
  • Urban rail construction delays.
  • Marketing for new products may underperform.

Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment (300228: SZ)

• Sector: SME Board
• EPS Forecast: CNY 1.92 (2015), CNY 2.47 (2016), CNY 3.32 (2017)
• Rating: BUY
• Key Highlights:
  • Growth in LNG-related businesses.
  • Expansion in hydrogen storage and IOT.
• Risks:
  • LNG cost inefficiency.
  • High AR and inventory.
  • Project delays.

Guangdong Sky Dragon Printing Ink Group (300063: SZ)

• Sector: Media
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.55 (2015), CNY 0.72 (2016), CNY 0.93 (2017)
• Rating: OUTPERFORM
• Key Highlights:
  • Digital marketing transformation.
  • Regulatory approval for acquisitions.
• Risks:
  • Acquisition synergy issues.
  • Economic downturn affecting digital marketing.

Guangdong Dahuanong Animal Health Products (300186: SZ)

• Sector: Agriculture
• EPS Forecast: CNY 1.93 (2015), CNY 3.31 (2016), / (2017)
• Rating: BUY
• Key Highlights:
  • Expected growth in poultry farming.
  • Profit estimates at CNY 7 billion (2015) and CNY 12 billion (2016).
• Risks:
  • Pork price volatility.

China Union Holdings (000036: SZ)

• Sector: Real Estate
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.07 (2015), CNY 0.90 (2016), CNY 1.26 (2017)
• Rating: BUY
• Key Highlights:
  • Strong margin of safety.
  • Private placement and business transformation.
• Risks:
  • Slower sales rebound.
  • Project delays.

Jiangsu Alcha Aluminum (002160: SZ)

• Sector: Non-ferrous Metal
• EPS Forecast: CNY 0.18 (2015), CNY 0.32 (2016), CNY 0.39 (2017)
• Rating: OUTPERFORM
• Key Highlights:
  • Business transformation into healthcare.
  • Recent private placements and stock price discount.
• Risks:
  • Uncertainty in private placement.
  • Slow business transformation.
  • Drop in aluminum processing fees.

Key Sectors and Trends

• Aviation: China Southern Air is highlighted due to its strong performance and potential for earnings improvement.
• Chemical Engineering: Kingfa Sci. & Tech is expected to grow through M&A and expansion into new materials.
• Real Estate: Multiple companies are recommended for their strong shareholder support and transformation strategies.
• Construction and Materials: Shandong Meichen Science & Tech and Zhejiang Kaier New Materials are noted for their strategic shifts and growth opportunities.
• Steel E-commerce: Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings is undervalued and expected to benefit from ecosystem development.
• Agriculture: Guangdong Dahuanong Animal Health Products has a strong growth outlook in the poultry sector.
• Non-ferrous Metal: Jiangsu Alcha Aluminum is transitioning into healthcare and biopharmaceuticals.

Common Risks Across Companies

• Macroeconomic downturns
• Oil price surges
• Exchange rate depreciation
• Competition from high-speed trains and other industries
• Project delays and M&A performance
• Sector-specific risks (e.g., steel price volatility, digital marketing challenges, LNG cost inefficiency)