2013年-世界发展银行全球_Regional_Impacts_of_High_Speed_Rail_in_China___Baseline_Report_for_a_Case_Study_of_Yunfu_in_Guangdong_Province_33页_2mb

Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in China: A Case Study of Yunfu, Guangdong Province

Core Content

This working paper provides an initial assessment of the economic development and transport infrastructure of Yunfu, Guangdong Province, in preparation for a 'before and after' study on the regional impacts of the NanGuang High Speed Rail (HSR) project. The report is part of a broader World Bank initiative to evaluate the effects of high-speed rail on regional economic development, focusing on the interplay between transport improvements and economic growth in China.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Development Overview

• Background: Yunfu was established as a municipality in 1994 and has historically been isolated from the economic centers of the Pearl River Delta.
• Growth Trends: From 1994 to 2008, Yunfu's Gross Regional Product (GRP) increased from under 10 billion yuan to about 30 billion yuan, with a real annual average growth rate of 9.8%.
• Industrial Structure: The economy is dominated by secondary industries, particularly manufacturing, which accounts for 44% of GRP. Primary industries remain significant, but tertiary industries are expanding.
• Economic Ranking: Yunfu is among the least developed areas in Guangdong, with a GRP that is less than 1% of the province's total and a per capita GRP that is only 15% of the richest municipality, Shenzhen.

2. Transport Infrastructure and Plans

• Current Transport Conditions: Yunfu has limited rail connectivity and relies heavily on highways and inland waterways for transport.
  • Highways: Yunfu has 6,937 km of highways, but only 18.5 km are expressways. The Guangzhou-Wuzhou expressway reduced travel time between Guangzhou and Yunfu to 2.5 hours.
  • Inland Waterways: The Xijiang River is the main inland waterway, with a total navigable length of 235 km. The new Yunfu New Port is designed for significant freight capacity.
  • Railways: Only 151 km of railway lines exist in Yunfu, and there is no railway station in the downtown area. The NanGuang HSR is under construction and is expected to reduce travel time to Guangzhou to 40 minutes by 2014.
• Future Transport Projects: Additional expressways are planned, including Yunfu-Cengxi, Luoding-Jiangmen, Yunfu-Yangjiang, and Shantou-Zhanjiang.

3. Industrial Structure and Clusters

• Dominant Industries: Yunfu's economy is characterized by several key industrial clusters:
  • Stone Processing: A long-standing industry with over 3,000 firms and 150,000 workers. It has evolved from raw material extraction to high-value-added handicrafts and artworks.
  • Stainless Steel Household Utensils: Xinxing County is a major hub for this industry, with over 30 firms producing more than 1,000 types of products, mostly for export.
  • Sulphur Chemicals: A significant sector in Yun'an County and Yuncheng District.
  • Cement and Ceramic Tiles: These are also important in Yunfu's industrial structure.
  • Medical and Pharmaceutical Products: Especially veterinary drugs, are showing growth.
  • Power Supply: A growing sector with an annual output of 4.57 billion KWH.
• Planned Industrial Parks: The local government is developing industrial parks to promote growth and modernization.

4. Possible Impacts of High-Speed Rail

• The NanGuang HSR is expected to significantly reduce travel time between Yunfu and Guangzhou, potentially leading to:
  • Increased business productivity due to improved access to markets and labor.
  • Facilitation of local innovation through exposure to new ideas and skilled workers.
  • Growth of export-oriented secondary industries and service sectors such as tourism and recreation.
• However, there are potential negative impacts, such as:
  • Attraction of local talents and investors to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, possibly weakening local businesses.
  • Differential impacts within Yunfu, particularly between counties, due to localized access to the HSR.
• The outcome will depend on how local communities adapt to the changes in transport access, land use patterns, social networks, and government policies.

5. Methodology and Objectives

• The report serves as a baseline for a 'before and after' study to assess the economic impacts of the NanGuang HSR.
• It is part of a larger World Bank initiative to develop a standard approach for evaluating regional economic impacts of HSR projects.
• The study is expected to contribute to understanding the causal mechanisms behind economic development in peripheral regions and to validate the productivity benefits found in econometric studies.

Conclusion and Next Steps

• Yunfu's case study highlights the importance of transport infrastructure in economic development and the need for a nuanced understanding of its impacts.
• The study will continue with field work and data collection, aiming to identify the long-term effects of the HSR on Yunfu's economy.
• The insights from this case could be informative for similar transport projects in other developing countries with comparable institutional and business environments.

References and Annexes

• The report includes references to previous studies and projections of regional economic impact.
• Annexes provide additional data:
  • Annex 1: Location Quotient of Yunfu's Industries.
  • Annex 2: Detailed Plan of Yunfu Riverside New City.
  • Annex 3: Impact of the Guangzhou-Wuzhou Expressway.
  • Annex 4: Some previous projections of regional economic impact.

Disclaimer

• The findings and conclusions in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank or its partners.
• The data used in this report is subject to accuracy and may not be guaranteed.
• The report is intended for internal use only and is not for circulation.