2024-05-09-北京大学国民经济研究中心-进出口点评报告_国内外环境改善_外贸增速上涨_5页_921kb

报告摘要

Key Findings: In April 2024, export growth accelerated to 1.5% year-on-year, recovering 9.0 percentage points from the previous month.
Drivers: International environment improvement, including increased interactions with key economies to mitigate external tensions, and low base effects from 2023, where export growth was -7.5%同比增长.
Commodity-Specific Insights: Exports of integrated circuits and automotive products showed strong performance, with growth of 17.8% and 28.77% respectively, highlighting export diversification.

Key Findings: Import growth rose significantly to 8.4% year-on-year, up 10.3 percentage points, reflecting domestic economic stabilization and low base effects from 2023 (-8.6% year-on-year).
Drivers: Economic recovery in China, as indicated by a manufacturing PMI of 50.4 (above the expansion line), and heightened imports from major economies like the US with a 9.3% growth rate.
Commodity-Specific Insights: Imports of raw materials like iron ore and crude oil saw positive trends, while agricultural imports showed improvement due to lower contract volatility.

Trade Surplus: A trade surplus of 723.5 billion USD was recorded in April 2024, consistent with previous months.

Export Prospects: Expected to stabilize amid global economic recovery in key markets, low base effects, and supportive policies like RCEP, despite challenges from trade barriers.
Import Prospects: Likely to continue recovering, supported by domestic demand and policy initiatives, but risks include property market volatility and supply chain disruptions from geopolitical factors.

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