2025-06-10-Bernstein-中国线上美妆_6.18预售数据显示节日开局喜忧参半_49页_1mb

Summary: China Online Beauty 6.18 Pre-Sales Data

• Date: 10 June 2025

• Topic: Analysis of China's online beauty market pre-sales data for the 6.18 shopping festival.

• China E-commerce Beauty Market Overview:

  • Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growth was -1.3% YoY in May 2025, following a -4.9% decline in April.
  • However, tracked beauty companies (excluding broader market) showed relatively better performance with +4.4% YoY GMV growth, averaging +9.5%.
  • This divergence is attributed to beauty sales being concentrated around major shopping festivals like 6.18, where consumers seek deep discounts.

• Performance of Tracked Companies:

  • Notable brands like Estée Lauder and Procter & Gamare showed strong pre-sales growth (+24% and +19% YoY, respectively).
  • L'Oréal experienced mixed results: overall GMV growth +3.6% YoY, but strong market share gains driven by brands like SkinCeuticals.
  • Companies like Proya faced declines (-7% YoY), while others like TIMAGE demonstrated acceleration (+45% YoY).

• Investment Implications:

  • Bernstein highlights valuation opportunities in luxury players like LVMH, noting structural advantages despite near-term challenges.
  • Concerns about Chinese economic recovery trajectory could influence market growth and consumer spending patterns.

• Key Challenges:

  • Pre-sales starting earlier this year complicates year-over-year comparisons, potentially masking actual performance challenges.
  • The timing may impact logistics and consumer engagement strategies for major retailers.