剑桥计量经济学会-英国的就业与中国的联系（英文）-2020.7-49页_3mb

Summary of UK Jobs Dependent on Links to China

Core Content

This report by Cambridge Econometrics estimates the number of UK jobs supported by economic links to China, focusing on four key areas: trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism, and higher education. The findings suggest that the UK-China relationship supports over 100,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs, with a range of 113,000–138,000 under strong assumptions about double counting. The report emphasizes that these are direct jobs associated with the industries producing goods and services for the Chinese market, rather than indirect jobs from supply chains.

Main Viewpoints

• Trade has been a major driver of job creation, with UK exports to China growing significantly since 1999.
• Tourism and students also play a substantial role in supporting UK employment.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is estimated to support over 9,000 jobs, although the data are less precise due to challenges in quantifying its impact.
• The report acknowledges the potential for double counting when combining the estimates from different sectors and suggests that the total may be somewhat lower than the upper range.

Key Information

1. Trade

• Total UK exports to China in 2019: £31.4bn (goods: £25bn, services: £5bn)
• Trade share: 4.5% of total UK exports and 6.7% of total UK imports
• Jobs supported by trade (2019): 90,000–115,000 FTE jobs
  • Goods exports: 60,000–80,000 FTE jobs
    • Key sectors: Mining and quarrying, electronics, other transport equipment
  • Services exports: 30,000–35,000 FTE jobs
    • Key sectors: Architecture/engineering, business support services
• Volatility in goods exports: Non-monetary gold trade has caused fluctuations in goods export figures
• Estimates are conservative: Due to the potential for more productive industries to support fewer jobs

2. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• Chinese FDI in the UK (2015–2018): £1.7bn–£2.3bn
• Share of total foreign investment: 0.2%
• Jobs created/safeguarded: Over 9,000 jobs based on DIT analysis
• Limitations: Data is not fully allocable to industries, and estimates are not on an FTE basis

3. Tourism

• Chinese tourists in the UK (2019): Over 1 million visits
• Tourism expenditure (2019): £2bn
• Jobs supported: 16,300 FTE jobs
• Growth: A 430% increase in tourist visits since 2009 and a 500% increase in expenditure
• Data source: ONS International Passenger Survey and Tourism Satellite Accounts

4. Students

• Chinese students in UK higher education (2018/19): 120,000 students
• Share of international students: 25%
• Expenditure (2018/19): £1.9bn (excluding tuition fees)
• Jobs supported: 17,600 FTE jobs
• Growth: 35% increase from 2014/15 to 2018/19

Summary of Jobs Estimates by Economic Activity

Economic Activity	Value (£bn)	Jobs (FTE)	Comment
Trade	30	90-115	Includes goods and services
Tourism	2	16	Data for 2019
Students	2	18	Data for 2018/19 academic year, excluding tuition fees
TOTAL	34	124–149	Possibly 113–138,000 under strong assumptions about double counting

Methodology and Limitations

• Approach: Jobs are estimated based on the share of Chinese demand in total UK output, using ONS input-output tables and CE-calculated FTE job figures.
• Assumptions:
  • Spending patterns by industry are assumed to be similar to the average.
  • Productivity levels are assumed to be similar to the average.
• Limitations:
  • FDI data is less precise due to data availability and disclosure issues.
  • Services data is less reliable due to its survey-based nature.
  • Double counting is a concern when aggregating results from different sectors.

Conclusion

The UK-China economic relationship is a significant source of employment, with trade, tourism, and higher education students being the primary contributors. The report highlights the potential for future growth in these areas and underscores the importance of maintaining and strengthening these links for continued job creation and economic benefit. The estimates are conservative and should be interpreted with caution due to the nature of the data and the challenges in accounting for all forms of economic interdependence.