2015年-世界发展银行全球_Keeping_Warm___Urban_Heating_Options_in_Tajikistan_105页_3mb

Summary of Urban Heating Options in Tajikistan

Core Content

This report evaluates the urban heating sector in Tajikistan, focusing on Dushanbe and Khujand, and identifies key investment measures to improve heating reliability and efficiency. It highlights the challenges posed by the cold climate, unreliable infrastructure, and insufficient funding, which have led to significant unmet heating demand and adverse social and environmental impacts. The report also provides a comprehensive analysis of the current heating systems, fuel supply, and institutional framework, and offers actionable recommendations for the government and stakeholders.

Main Findings

• Heating Season: Lasts between one-quarter to one-half of the year, with Dushanbe and Khujand experiencing relatively milder conditions compared to other regions.
• Urban Population: Over 1.98 million people live in urban areas, with Dushanbe and Khujand accounting for more than one-third of the total urban population.
• Building Stock: Includes 167,474 residential buildings (94% individual family houses, 6% multi-apartment) and 6,626 public buildings (mostly schools and health facilities).
• Heat Supply Systems: District Heating (DH) and small Heat-only-Boilers (HOBs) cover only 8% of households, with most DH systems no longer operational due to gas supply issues and infrastructure decay.
• Fuel Supply: Natural gas is the primary fuel for DH and CHP, but its high cost and unreliable supply have led to the conversion of HOBs to coal, increasing pollution and inefficiency.
• Tariffs: Heat and electricity tariffs are below cost-recovery levels, leading to financial losses for providers and reliance on government subsidies.
• Unmet Demand: In Dushanbe and Khujand alone, 20–30% of public and residential heating demand remains unmet, with significant impacts on public services and health.

Key Issues

• Poor Infrastructure: DH systems suffer from high losses, poor insulation, and outdated equipment, reducing efficiency and reliability.
• High Electricity Use for Heating: Almost 50% of urban households rely on electricity for heating, exacerbating winter power shortages.
• Inefficient Heating Sources: Many households use coal or biomass stoves, which are inefficient and contribute to indoor air pollution and health risks.
• Energy Poverty: Households spend a significant portion of their income on energy, particularly solid fuels, affecting their overall well-being.

Main Recommendations

1. Scalable Program for Replacing Inefficient Individual Heating Sources:

   • Replace coal and biomass stoves with more efficient models to reduce fuel consumption and indoor pollution.
   • Replace electric heaters with heat pumps to cut electricity use for heating by up to 70%.

2. Targeted Rehabilitation and Construction Program for Small HOBs:

   • Focus on public and multi-apartment buildings with high heating loads.
   • Improve efficiency and reduce pollution by upgrading HOBs with modern flue-gas cleaning systems.

3. National Energy Efficiency Program:

   • Prioritize energy efficiency investments in buildings with upgraded heating systems.
   • Start with public buildings like schools and hospitals to demonstrate benefits and build local market capacity.

4. Rehabilitation of DH Network in Dushanbe:

   • Improve service quality and reliability by installing modern building-level substations, re-insulating pipelines, and using variable speed drives.
   • Reduce reliance on electric heating and solid fuel stoves.

5. Tariff and Social Assistance Reforms:

   • Implement fair tariffs to ensure cost recovery and incentivize efficient use of energy.
   • Improve targeting of social assistance programs to ensure heating remains affordable for the poor.

Investment Requirements

• Short-Term Investment: Estimated at US$200 million for Dushanbe and Khujand.
• Medium- to Long-Term Investment: Estimated at US$700 million.
• Financing: A combination of public and private funding, including concessional donor support, is needed to finance these investments.

Conclusion

The current heating situation in Tajikistan is unsustainable and has serious social and economic implications. Improving the heating sector through targeted investments and reforms is critical to ensuring reliable and affordable heating for the population, particularly during the winter months. The recommendations focus on both supply-side improvements (e.g., DH network upgrades, CHP expansion) and demand-side efficiency measures (e.g., building insulation, replacement of inefficient heating systems). These actions are essential to reduce energy poverty, improve public services, and mitigate environmental impacts.