2023-07-12-IMF-撒哈拉以南非洲的风险感知溢价_寻找缺失因素_36页_712kb

Summary

This IMF working paper explores whether Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries face a "risk perception premium" in international financial markets, leading to unjustified high borrowing costs. Using data from 1,592 primary market bonds (2003–2021) and 107 countries in the secondary market (1990–2022), the study finds SSA countries pay higher coupon rates in the primary market and higher refinancing costs in the secondary market, even after controlling for credit ratings. However, the risk premium disappears when accounting for structural factors like budget transparency, financial sector development, the size of the informal sector, and institutional quality. The paper concludes that SSA countries face higher borrowing costs due to these structural challenges, not inherent risk. Policy recommendations include reforms to improve transparency, strengthen institutions, reduce informality, deepen financial markets, and support private sector growth to lower borrowing costs.