2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Austria_2016_Article_IV_Consultation_51页_1mb
报告摘要
Summary of the 2016 Article IV Consultation with Austria
Core Content
The 2016 Article IV Consultation with Austria was conducted by the IMF Executive Board, which concluded the discussions on February 1, 2017, without a formal meeting. The consultation aimed to assess Austria's economic developments and policies, with a focus on growth, fiscal sustainability, and financial stability. The staff report was completed on January 13, 2017, based on information available at the time of the discussions.
Main Economic Indicators (2012–2022)
| Indicator | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (expenditure) | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Domestic demand | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Consumption | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Private consumption | 0.5% | -0.1% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Public consumption | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 1.4% | 2.2% | -0.9% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Private capital formation | 2.0% | 1.9% | -1.7% | -0.6% | 19.9% | 20.0% | 20.2% | 20.3% | 20.3% | 20.4% | 20.4% |
| Public capital formation | -2.5% | 3.6% | -1.7% | -0.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| GNFS exports | 1.7% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| GNFS imports | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Gross national savings (% GDP) | 25.5% | 25.8% | 26.0% | 25.4% | 26.0% | 26.2% | 26.3% | 26.1% | 26.1% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Public savings | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Private savings | 23.3% | 22.7% | 23.3% | 22.2% | 23.6% | 23.5% | 23.2% | 23.0% | 22.8% | 23.0% | 23.1% |
| Potential output | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Output gap (% potential GDP) | -0.2% | -1.0% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -0.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Main Economic Outlook
- Growth: Austria's economy showed a recovery in 2016, with GDP growth at 1.4%. The growth is expected to gradually decline to the potential rate of just above 1% in the medium term.
- Inflation: Inflation is expected to rise to slightly above 2% in the medium term, driven by energy prices and tourism-related services.
- Unemployment: Unemployment stabilized at around 5.8% (EU harmonized rate) in November 2016, though it remains elevated compared to historical levels.
- Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit is projected to gradually decrease due to interest savings and government spending restraint, but long-term fiscal pressures will emerge due to demographic changes.
Key Policy Recommendations
A. Raising Potential Output
- Structural Reforms: Enhance competition, reduce administrative burdens, and improve product market regulation.
- Public Investment: Increase public investment in infrastructure to support private sector productivity.
- Labor Force Participation: Encourage elderly workers to participate in the labor force and increase full-time employment for women.
- Tax Reforms: Shift tax burden from labor to property, pollution, and consumption to reduce economic distortions.
B. Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability
- Expenditure Reforms: Implement efficiency-boosting reforms in health, education, and subsidies.
- Pension Reforms: Further pension reforms are necessary to manage aging-related costs.
- Fiscal Relations: Adjust fiscal relations between federal and subnational governments to realize the full potential of these reforms.
- Debt Management: Public debt peaked at 85.5% of GDP in 2015, and a decline is expected in the medium term, though fiscal sustainability remains a concern.
C. Maintaining Financial Stability
- Bank Capital: Banks should increase their capital buffers, especially given the low-interest rate environment.
- Macroprudential Tools: Regulators should have the legal authority to use macroprudential instruments to address real estate market risks.
- AML/CFT Framework: Strengthen the AML/CFT framework to preserve Austria's position as a financial center.
- Banking Business Models: Adjust banking business models to adapt to new financial conditions and reduced exposure to CESEE risks.
Risks to the Outlook
- External Risks: International political fragmentation, slow global growth, and potential increases in risk premia could affect Austria through trade and financial channels.
- Emerging Markets: A slowdown in CESEE countries, which account for 31% of Austria's exports, could directly impact growth and the financial system.
- Brexit Uncertainty: Prolonged uncertainty over Brexit modalities could affect Austria via its trading partners, though the impact is expected to be limited.
- Refugee Inflows: A resurgence of immigrant inflows could strain Austria's fiscal and economic capacity.
Authorities' Views
- The authorities largely agree with the IMF's assessment but expect a slightly higher potential growth rate due to improved total factor productivity (TFP).
- They emphasize the importance of maintaining open access to markets and managing risks from emerging markets.
- They support the need for structural and fiscal reforms to address long-term challenges and improve economic performance.
Conclusion
The 2016 Article IV Consultation with Austria highlights the country's stability and prosperity, but also identifies areas for improvement in terms of growth, fiscal sustainability, and financial stability. The recommendations focus on structural reforms, public investment, tax shifts, and maintaining financial stability through regulatory tools and capital buffers. The outlook for 2017 is positive, with growth expected to stabilize, but risks from external factors remain.
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