20250312-招银国际-Net_loss_in_4Q24_further_narrowed__target_to_achieve_97__revenue_growth_in_2025E_6页_893kb
报告摘要
EHang Holdings (EH US) Summary
Core Content
EHang Holdings has demonstrated significant growth in its revenue and eVTOL aircraft deliveries, despite continuing net losses. The company is positioned as a leader in the eVTOL sector in China, having obtained the three essential certificates for mass production, which gives it a competitive edge over its peers. The firm's 4Q24 results show a 1.9x YoY revenue increase to RMB164mn, driven by a 2.4x YoY growth in eVTOL deliveries (78 units). The net loss narrowed by 35% YoY to RMB47mn, and the company achieved positive operating cash flow for five consecutive quarters. As of end-2024, EHang's net cash and short-term investments amounted to RMB1bn.
For 2025, EHang targets a revenue of RMB900mn, representing a 97% YoY growth. The company expects its delivery numbers to double in 2025, with a forecast of 216 units for the full year of 2024. The company has also expanded its presence both domestically and internationally, with EH216-S deliveries in 16 cities across Japan, Thailand, and Mexico, and the completion of the first urban flight of a pilotless eVTOL aircraft in Spain.
Key Highlights
-
Revenue Growth:
- 4Q24: RMB164mn (+190% YoY)
- FY2024: RMB456mn (+288.5% YoY)
- FY2025E: RMB899mn (+97% YoY)
- FY2026E: RMB1,341mn (+49.2% YoY)
- FY2027E: RMB1,646mn (+22.7% YoY)
-
Net Loss Narrowing:
- 4Q24: RMB47mn (-35% YoY)
- FY2024: RMB230mn (-24% YoY)
- FY2025E: RMB64mn
- FY2026E: RMB178mn
- FY2027E: RMB246mn
-
Gross Margin:
- 4Q24: 60.7%
- FY2024: 61.9%
- FY2025E: 60.7%
- FY2026E: 61.2%
- FY2027E: 64.1%
-
Expense Ratios:
- Selling, General & Administrative (SG&A) expenses ratio: decreased by 14.6ppt YoY to 22%
- Administrative expense ratio: decreased by 56ppt YoY to 42%
- R&D expense ratio: decreased by 33ppt YoY to 34%
-
Market Position:
- First manufacturer in China to obtain the three essential certificates for eVTOL mass production
- Expansion in China to multiple cities including Shanghai, Weihai, Wenzhou, Shaoguan, Wuhan
- Overseas expansion to 16 cities in Japan, Thailand, and Mexico
-
Operator Certification (OC):
- Expected approval this year could be a key catalyst for share price movement
Earnings Forecast
| Year | Revenue (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | EPS (Reported) (RMB cents) | YoY Growth (%) | P/S (x) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | Yield (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023A | 117 | - | -302.0 | -363.08 | - | 87.5 | ns | 10.8 | 0.0 | ns |
| 2024A | 456 | 288.5 | -229.8 | -363.08 | - | 22.5 | ns | 10.8 | 0.0 | ns |
| 2025E | 899 | 97.0 | -64.0 | -101.18 | - | 11.4 | 57.6 | 11.5 | 0.1 | ns |
| 2026E | 1,341 | 49.2 | 178.5 | 281.98 | - | 7.7 | 41.7 | 9.6 | 0.1 | 18.2 |
| 2027E | 1,646 | 22.7 | 246.4 | 389.27 | 38.0 | 6.2 | 41.7 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 20.7 |
Analyst Ratings
- Current Rating: BUY
- Target Price: US$30.00
- Upside/Downside: 33.6%
- Current Price: US$22.45
Shareholding and Performance
-
Market Cap: US$1,420.8mn
-
Avg 3 mths t/o: US$41.8mn
-
52w High/Low: US$26.45 / US$11.59
-
Total Issued Shares: 63.3mn
-
Shareholding Structure:
- Huazhi Hu: 30.7%
-
Share Performance:
- 1-mth: -10.7%
- 3-mth: +48.1%
- 6-mth: +85.4%
Financial Summary
Income Statement (RMB mn)
| Item | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 44 | 117 | 456 | 899 | 1,341 | 1,646 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | -15 | -42 | -176 | -350 | -534 | -678 |
| Gross Profit | 29 | 75 | 280 | 549 | 808 | 967 |
| Selling Expense | -53 | -60 | -131 | -137 | -161 | -197 |
| Admin Expense | -151 | -150 | -233 | -279 | -245 | -263 |
| R&D Expense | -135 | -167 | -199 | -234 | -241 | -280 |
| Other Income | 6 | 6 | 30 | 18 | 13 | 16 |
| Other Gains/(Losses) | -28 | -10 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Share of Profit of JV and Associates | 0 | -2 | -4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| EBITDA | -283 | -275 | -229 | -57 | 200 | 273 |
| Depreciation | 21 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 29 |
| EBIT | -304 | -296 | -253 | -82 | 173 | 243 |
| Interest Income | 5 | 8 | 31 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| Interest Expense | -2 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 |
| Net Interest Income/(Expense) | 3 | 6 | 27 | 18 | 21 | 25 |
| Pre-tax Profit | -329 | -302 | -230 | -64 | 194 | 268 |
| Income Tax | -0 | -0 | -0 | 0 | -16 | -21 |
| Net Profit | -329 | -302 | -230 | -64 | 178 | 246 |
| Adjusted Net Profit | -329 | -302 | -230 | -64 | 178 | 246 |
| Gross Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
Balance Sheet (RMB mn)
| Item | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Assets | 387 | 453 | 1,357 | 1,562 | 1,708 | 2,017 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 249 | 228 | 611 | 721 | 794 | 972 |
| Account Receivables | 20 | 35 | 58 | 139 | 118 | 224 |
| Inventories | 72 | 59 | 76 | 49 | 103 | 101 |
| ST Bank Deposits | 0 | 34 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Financial Assets at FVTPL | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Current Assets | 45 | 82 | 582 | 623 | 662 | 690 |
| Non-current Assets | 144 | 146 | 227 | 240 | 274 | 311 |
| PP&E | 47 | 45 | 60 | 72 | 110 | 145 |
| Investment in JVs & Assoc | 10 | 18 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 37 |
| Intangibles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Financial Assets at FVTPL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Non-current Assets | 85 | 80 | 131 | 131 | 125 | 128 |
| Total Assets | 531 | 599 | 1,584 | 1,802 | 1,981 | 2,328 |
| Current Liabilities | 282 | 250 | 470 | 752 | 753 | 862 |
| Short-term Borrowings | 121 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 |
| Account Payables | 35 | 35 | 127 | 409 | 410 | 519 |
| Tax Payable | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 126 | 142 | 268 | 268 | 268 | 268 |
| Non-current Liabilities | 124 | 134 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 |
| Long-term Borrowings | 4 | 9 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Other Non-current Liabilities | 120 | 125 | 138 | 138 | 138 | 138 |
| Total Liabilities | 406 | 384 | 629 | 910 | 911 | 1,021 |
| Total Shareholders Equity | 124 | 214 | 956 | 892 | 1,070 | 1,307 |
| Minority Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Equity and Liabilities | 531 | 599 | 1,584 | 1,802 | 1,981 | 2,328 |
Cash Flow (RMB mn)
| Item | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Profit Before Taxation | -329 | -302 | -230 | -64 | 194 | 268 |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 21 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 29 |
| Tax Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -16 | -21 |
| Change in Working Capital | -6 | 21 | 95 | 182 | -70 | -27 |
| Others | 141 | -121 | 30 | -19 | -22 | -26 |
| Net Cash from Operations | -173 | -88 | 139 | 124 | 113 | 224 |
| Investing | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -12 | -8 | -32 | -30 | -60 | -60 |
| Acquisition of Subsidiaries/Investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | 69 | -121 | 30 | 19 | 22 | 26 |
| Net Cash from Investing | 56 | -129 | -2 | -11 | -38 | -34 |
| Financing | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 |
| Net Borrowings | 37 | -55 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Proceeds from Share Issues | 70 | 250 | 707 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -3 | -3 |
| Net Cash from Financing | 107 | 195 | 720 | -3 | -3 | -12 |
| Net Change in Cash | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Cash at the Beginning of the Year | 247 | 249 | 228 | 611 | 721 | 794 |
| Exchange Difference | 13 | 1 | -474 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash at the End of the Year | 249 | 228 | 611 | 721 | 794 | 972 |
Key Ratios
- Gross Margin: 60.7% in 4Q24, down from 63.9% in 1Q23
- SG&A Expenses Ratio: Reduced by 14.6ppt YoY to 22%
- Administrative Expenses Ratio: Reduced by 56ppt YoY to 42%
- R&D Expenses Ratio: Reduced by 33ppt YoY to 34%
- Net Margin: -28.5% in 4Q24, improved from -392% in 1Q23
- Effective Tax Rate: 0.0% in 4Q24, 0.0% in FY2024, -0.4% in FY2025E
Strategic Outlook
- EHang is on track to achieve its 2025 revenue target of RMB900mn
- Continued expansion in China and overseas
- Potential approval of operator certification (OC) for subsidiaries this year
- Strong sales volume growth, with deliveries increasing significantly quarter-on-quarter
Conclusion
EHang Holdings is experiencing strong growth in revenue and eVTOL deliveries, with a narrowing net loss and improved operating cash flow. The company's early market position and regulatory certifications give it a competitive advantage. Analysts maintain a BUY rating with a target price of US$30.00, indicating confidence in its future performance.
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