2025-05-21-Jefferies-希尔史密斯（HILS）_尽管外汇逆风加剧_但年度股东大会更新后预期不变_7页_108kb

Company: Hill & Smith Holdings PLC (HILS LN)
Sector: UK Diversified Industrials
Recommendation: BUY
Target Price: 1,920p (current price) with a price target of 2,540p (+32% upside)

Key Takeaways:

• Agm Update Confirms Consensus: The AGM update confirms the company will meet analyst consensus EBITA expectations for FY25F (~£150.3m) despite £3m worse FX performance than previously anticipated. This is viewed as positive given broader challenges in the UK industrial sector.
• Revenue Growth Factors: Organic revenue growth slowed slightly (~1%) due to tough comps and weather, but both factors are expected to ease. Overall revenue growth driven by M&A.
• Divisional Performance:
  • Engineered Solutions (UK/India/USA): US division ("Engineered Solutions") delivered good growth driven by platform businesses; UK/India seen as "subdued"; profitability helped by project work and cost focus. Galvanizing services division ("Galvanizing Services") had volume growth affected by severe weather in January/February but saw a strong exit rate. Performance driven by customer-centric approach.
• Margin Expansion & Financial Position: The group maintains momentum in margin expansion and has an excellent balance sheet (ND:EBITDA ~0.3x) supporting M&A (c£50m-£70m planned) for EPS growth.
• Tariffs & Pricing: Minimal direct exposure to US tariffs; cost inflation (like steel) has been passed through price rises.
• Outlook: Management sees no evidence of delays or market softening in the US despite broader concerns, which had been a key investor caution point. Global infrastructure and government spending remain potential drivers. Potential for large platform deals through M&A considered.

Valuation:

• Target price 2,540p based on a SOTP valuation. Trading around the bottom end of its 10-year EV/EBITA range (approx. 10x FY26F EV/EBITA).
• Current share price is 1,920p.