2011年-世界发展银行全球_United_Republic_of_Tanzania_-_Public_Expenditure_Review_2010_118页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the United Republic of Tanzania Public Expenditure Review 2010

Core Content

The Tanzania Public Expenditure Review (PER) 2010 is a comprehensive assessment of the country's public expenditure and financial management systems, focusing on three main areas: Budget Analysis, Value for Money in Education, and Public Investment Management (PIM) Diagnostic. The report was prepared by the Macro Group of the PER Working Group, co-chaired by the Ministry of Finance and the World Bank, and includes inputs from various international and local stakeholders.

The report aims to evaluate whether the budget is effectively supporting Tanzania's socio-economic objectives, including macro and fiscal sustainability, efficient public service delivery, and strategic public investment. It also highlights the need for better coordination, transparency, and accountability in the use of public funds.

Main Objectives of the Budget

Macro and Fiscal Sustainability: The budget should ensure that public spending is aligned with long-term fiscal stability and economic growth.
Efficient Resource Allocation: Resources should be directed to areas that provide high-quality socio-economic services, such as education, health, and social protection.
Strategic Public Investment: The budget should support infrastructure development (roads, railways, energy, irrigation) to drive economic growth and reduce poverty.

Key Findings

1. Fiscal Sustainability and Budget Execution

Tanzania has created fiscal space over the 2000s through increased revenue and aid, but revenue and aid to GDP ratios have declined/stagnated in recent years.
Non-concessional borrowing has become the main source of fiscal space, which is not without risk, although the country remains at low risk of debt distress.
The 2010/11 budget overestimated domestic revenue by at least TShs 500 billion (1.8% of GDP), creating a significant financing gap.
The government has responded by cutting recurrent expenditure, which may be damaging but is manageable.
Capital spending remains low at 18% of the total budget (equivalent to 5.5% of GDP), and needs to be increased to meet development goals.

2. Strategic Budget Allocation

Over 70% of the 2010/11 budget is allocated to MKUKUTA strategic interventions, with economic growth and poverty reduction (Cluster 1) receiving the most attention.
Key sectors like education, health, water, roads, agriculture, and energy account for more than 60% of the overall budget (excluding interest payments).
Infrastructure maintenance has seen a decline in budget allocation, which could lead to unreliable services and hinder economic growth.
Increased infrastructure investment requires more maintenance funding to avoid future costly rehabilitation or reconstruction.

3. Local Government and Decentralization

Local Government Authorities (LGAs) are responsible for delivering primary and secondary education, primary health, agriculture extension, and rural roads maintenance.
The share of the budget allocated to LGAs increased by 2.5% in 2010/11 compared to 2009/10.
However, planning and implementation capacity at the LGA level is still weak and needs improvement to ensure effective use of resources.

4. Education Spending and Outcomes

Despite significant investment in education, quality remains low, and achievement levels are below expectations.
Primary education suffers from unequal funding and poor performance, with pass rates dropping by 20% since 2007.
The cost per student varies significantly between districts, with some districts spending three to four times more than others.
Inefficient districts could save up to TShs 250 billion if they achieved the efficiency of the most effective districts.
Secondary education has seen rapid expansion, but this has led to diminishing returns and poor quality due to a lack of skilled teachers.

5. Public Investment Management (PIM)

Tanzania lacks a coordinated national public investment program (PIP), leading to fragmented and low-impact projects.
A PIP would help in aligning investments with national strategies, improving donor coordination, and ensuring priority areas receive adequate funding.
The failure to prioritize road projects in 2010 led to overcommitments and real costs (penalties).
The government has started to task the President's Office Planning Commission (POPC) with making strategic plans operational, but centralized coordination is still lacking.

Recommendations

Improve fiscal sustainability by reducing current spending and increasing capital spending to support infrastructure development.
Enhance transparency and accountability in budget execution, especially in the decentralized sectors.
Strengthen the institutional framework for managing public investment, including the development of a national public investment program (PIP).
Improve planning and implementation capacity at the local government level to ensure efficient use of resources.
Address inefficiencies in education by focusing on quality improvement, teacher training, and managerial efficiency.
Ensure equitable resource distribution to underserved districts to improve both equity and efficiency.
Monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of discretionary current spending to ensure it is not becoming a long-term burden.
Develop a coherent strategy for recovery of loans from higher education graduates to ensure affordability and sustainability.

Conclusion

The PER 2010 highlights the need for a more strategic and efficient use of public resources in Tanzania. While the budget has provided significant funding for key sectors, the quality of service delivery and coordination of public investment remain major challenges. The report calls for institutional reforms, improved data collection, and better alignment of spending with national development goals. It emphasizes the importance of value for money in public spending and recommends a systematic approach to managing and monitoring public investment to support long-term economic growth and poverty reduction.

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