> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Greentown Service (2869 HK) Summary ## Core Content Greentown Service (2869 HK) reported a 6.3% YoY increase in revenue for 1H26, reaching RMB9.87bn. This growth was primarily driven by the resilient performance of its basic property management (PM) segment, which grew by 10.1% YoY, while the value-added services (VAS) segment faced a 6.7% YoY decline. The company's core operating profit (GP–SG&A) and attributable net profit (NP) increased by 16.3% and 15.2% YoY, respectively, to RMB1.25bn and RMB0.71bn. These results exceeded the full-year guidance for core OP growth of over 15%, despite a 34% YoY increase in receivable impairment. The company's gross margin improved by 0.5ppt to 20.0%, while the SG&A ratio dropped by 0.6ppt to 7.3%, contributing to the profit growth. Management has maintained its full-year guidance and reaffirmed a high payout, with a minimum ordinary dividend payout ratio of 50% and a possible special dividend. The target price (TP) remains unchanged at HK\$6.55, based on an 18x 2026E P/E ratio. ## Main Points - **Revenue Growth**: 1H26 revenue rose 6.3% YoY to RMB9.87bn, with basic PM up 10.1% and community VAS down 6.7%. - **Profit Growth**: Core operating profit grew 16.3% YoY to RMB1.25bn, and net profit increased 15.2% YoY to RMB0.71bn. - **Gross Margin and SG&A Ratio**: Gross margin lifted by 0.5ppt to 20.0%, and SG&A ratio dropped by 0.6ppt to 7.3%. - **Managed GFA Growth**: Managed GFA grew 8% YoY to 580.3mn sqm, with a significant increase in terminated GFA (17.6mn sqm) due to the company's strategy to remove low-quality projects. - **New Contracts**: New contracts value reached RMB1.46bn in 1H26, accounting for 37% of the full-year target, slightly below the 38% in 1H25. - **Dividend and Buybacks**: The company has a strong cash position of RMB6.56bn and plans to continue buybacks. If buybacks match FY25 levels, the FY26E dividend yield could reach 7.4% including buybacks. - **Target Price**: The TP remains at HK\$6.55, with the stock currently trading at HK\$4.31, representing a 51.9% upside. - **Outlook**: The company maintains its full-year guidance, with core OP growth expected to exceed 15%, and is optimistic about the long-term benefits of its active clean-up strategy. - **Challenges**: Community VAS remains under pressure due to the macroeconomic environment, and risks include weaker collections from high new-home vacancy, slower third-party expansion, and further decline in VAS. ## Key Information - **Stock Performance**: - Market Cap: HK\$13,931.6m - 12-Month Price Performance: As per FactSet - **Shareholding Structure**: - Orchid Garden Investment: 31.9% - Lilac International Investment: 13.3% - **Share Performance**: - 1-Month: +3.9% - 3-Months: -5.7% - 6-Months: -3.4% - **Financial Highlights**: - Revenue is projected to grow at an average rate of 8.2% in FY26. - Net profit is expected to grow to RMB1,030.1m in FY26, with EPS at RMB0.33. - P/E ratio for FY26E is 11.3x. - Dividend yield for FY26E is projected to be as high as 7.4% including buybacks. - **CMBIGM Ratings**: - The rating is **BUY**, indicating potential for over 15% return in the next 12 months. - **Key Risks**: - Weaker collections due to high new-home vacancy. - Slower third-party expansion. - Further decline in community VAS. ## Financial Summary ### Income Statement (RMB mn) | Item | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue | 16,812 | 17,893 | 19,164 | 20,733 | 22,309 | 23,830 | | Gross Profit | 2,759 | 3,011 | 3,322 | 3,645 | 3,917 | 4,189 | | Net Profit | 605 | 785 | 880 | 1,030 | 1,159 | 1,253 | ### Balance Sheet (RMB mn) | Item | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Total Assets | 18,082 | 17,694 | 18,317 | 19,251 | 20,183 | 21,028 | | Total Liabilities | 9,856 | 9,151 | 9,599 | 10,026 | 10,472 | 10,901 | | Total Equity | 7,406 | 7,789 | 7,960 | 8,396 | 8,803 | 9,132 | ### Cash Flow (RMB mn) | Item | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Net Cash from Operations | 1,436 | 1,475 | 1,528 | 1,224 | 1,320 | 1,365 | | Net Cash from Investing | -378 | -503 | -191 | -74 | -117 | -161 | | Net Cash from Financing | -717 | -651 | -866 | -778 | -875 | -946 | | Cash at the End of the Year | 4,531 | 4,854 | 5,320 | 5,691 | 6,019 | 6,277 | ## Conclusion Greentown Service's 1H26 performance shows resilience in its core PM segment, with a focus on quality and long-term growth. The company's strategy of terminating low-quality projects has led to a higher managed GFA clean-up rate, potentially improving margins and collection rates. Despite challenges in the VAS segment due to macroeconomic pressures, the company's financial health and stable dividend policy support the **BUY** rating. The TP remains at HK\$6.55, with a strong cash position and a projected 18x P/E ratio for 2026. Key risks include macroeconomic headwinds and potential challenges in new-home vacancy and third-party expansion.