2025-06-16-Jefferies-标普全球移动性轻型车生产六月更新——关税放宽后如预期上调_6页_107kb

S&P Global Mobility June LVP Update Summary

Introduction/Overview
This report provides an update on S&P Global Mobility's Light Vehicle Production (LVP) forecasts for FY25 and FY26, highlighting the revision driven by tariff easing. The main focus is on production growth, regional impacts, and associated risks.

Key Findings

• Global FY25 LVP revised upward by +919k (1.0 pp) to 89.2m units, still showing a -0.4% year-on-year decline despite the upgrade.
• North America: Production is upgraded +434k (2.8 pp) to -5.4% y/y due to continued USMCA parts exemptions and adjustment for non-compliant parts.
• China: Projected +355k (1.2 pp) to +3.3% y/y, driven by strong demand, scrappage/NEV subsidies, and eased trade tensions.
• Europe: Relatively flat at -3.5% y/y.
• The primary driver for FY25 upgrade is tariff easing, with further activity in Q2 and Q3 supporting production rates.

FY26 Projections

• Global LVP forecast increased +596k to 89.5m units (+0.4% y/y).
• China is the main contributor to the upgrade, accounting for +389k (+0.1 pp base effect).

Risks

• Potential disruptions from China's rare earth metal supply, noted as a risk to production without assignment to specific OEMs.

Conclusion and Analyst Notes

• The report includes standard equity research disclosures, highlighting analyst certifications, compensation structures, and conflicts of interest related to investment banking activities.
• No specific buy/sell/hold recommendations are detailed beyond general market analysis; focus is on valuation metrics and financial disclosures.

End of Summary