> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Summary of Macroeconomic Outlook in the Arab Region ## Core Content This report presents the macroeconomic outlook for the Arab region from 2025 to 2027, analyzing the impacts of global trends, regional challenges, and the innovative use of nowcasting models to enhance economic analysis and policy-making. ## Key Messages - **Global Uncertainty**: The Arab region faces significant challenges due to heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and financial strains. - **Inflation and Oil Prices**: Easing inflation and stabilizing oil prices offer some relief, but ongoing conflicts and global tariff uncertainties continue to affect the economic outlook. - **GDP Growth Projections**: Regional GDP is expected to grow by **2.9% in 2025** and **3.7% in 2026**, supported by diversification, fiscal reforms, and investment in non-hydrocarbon sectors. - **Inflation Trends**: Regional inflation is forecast to decline from **8.2% in 2025** to **5.4% in 2027**, driven by falling commodity prices and normalized supply chains. - **Nowcasting Innovation**: ESCWA has developed machine-learning-based nowcasting models for Egypt and Saudi Arabia, enabling near-real-time GDP estimation and improving policy responsiveness. ## Main Views ### 1. Global Context and Its Impacts - **Global Economic Growth**: Expected to remain subdued, with a projected growth of **2.4% in 2025** and **2.5% in 2026**, due to structural weaknesses and geopolitical uncertainty. - **Inflation Trends**: Global inflation is expected to ease, from **5.6% in 2023** to **4.0% in 2024**, and further to **3.6% in 2025**. - **Trade Policy Uncertainty**: The resurgence of mercantilist policies and the shift away from free trade have led to a significant slowdown in global trade growth, from **3.3% in 2024** to **1.6% in 2025**. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Conflicts, such as the war in Gaza and tensions between Iran and Israel, have had a negative impact on the region's economic stability, affecting trade, tourism, and security. ### 2. Macroeconomic Outlook for the Arab Region #### A. Growth and Inflation Rates - **GDP Growth**: The Arab region is projected to grow by **2.9% in 2025** and **3.7% in 2026**, with a slight acceleration to **3.3% in 2027**. - **Inflation Decline**: Inflation is expected to decline from **8.2% in 2025** to **5.4% in 2027**, due to falling oil prices and reduced supply chain disruptions. - **High-Income Economies**: These economies are driving recovery through diversification, investment in manufacturing, tourism, and digital sectors. - **Middle-Income Economies**: These face constraints due to high debt, inflation, and external shocks. - **Low-Income Economies**: Conflict-affected countries continue to face contraction risks due to fiscal fragility and humanitarian pressures. #### B. Fiscal Balance and Debt Levels - **Fiscal Reforms**: Fiscal sustainability and debt management are critical for the region's economic stability. - **Debt Distress**: The share of countries in or at high risk of debt distress is not expected to rise significantly due to resilient growth in some low-income economies and improved fiscal management. #### C. Trade - **Export Growth**: Non-oil exports are expected to grow, but the region remains vulnerable to external trade shocks due to global tariff uncertainties and regional trade disruptions. - **Import Trends**: Lower global oil prices could ease inflationary pressures for fuel-importing countries, reducing their import bills. ## Key Information - **Green Transition**: A major global trend affecting the Arab region, with a focus on renewable energy and reducing oil dependency. - **Oil Production**: Global oil production is expected to rise by **2.7 million barrels per day in 2025** and **1.3 million barrels per day in 2026**, while consumption is expected to grow by **1.1 million barrels per day** in both years. - **Impact on Oil Exporters**: Falling oil prices and global competition will require diversification and investment in renewables. - **Phosphate Market**: Demand for phosphates is expected to rise due to their use in battery production, particularly lithium iron phosphate chemistry. - **Morocco and Saudi Arabia**: Both are expanding phosphate production capacities and investing in downstream industries to meet global demand. - **Climate Change**: Affects the region's economy through impacts on agriculture, food security, and water stress, especially in middle- and low-income countries. - **Adaptation Needs**: Climate shocks may increase government spending on food support and emergency measures, leading to higher fiscal pressure. - **GDP Impact**: Without adaptation, GDP in the Arab region could decline by **1.1–6.6%**. - **Digitalization and AI**: Affecting the labor market and economic structure. - **Job Transformation**: AI is expected to transform job content and skill profiles, with a greater impact on women than men. - **Opportunities and Challenges**: AI adoption can boost productivity in sectors like services, manufacturing, and government operations, but also poses risks to routine, low-skill jobs. - **Nowcasting Models**: ESCWA has developed innovative machine-learning-based nowcasting models for Egypt and Saudi Arabia. - **Benefits**: These models enable near-real-time GDP estimation, enhance policy responsiveness, and provide a scalable framework for economic assessment. - **Integration**: The nowcasting approach integrates conventional and alternative data sources, contributing to a better understanding of current economic trends. ## Conclusion and Prospects - **Policy Imperatives**: Fiscal sustainability, structural reform, diversification, human capital investment, and climate/energy adaptation are key to the region's future growth. - **Economic Diversification**: High-income countries are investing in non-hydrocarbon sectors, including manufacturing, tourism, and digital transformation. - **Regional Variations**: Different countries face varying challenges and opportunities based on their economic structure, geopolitical position, and exposure to global trends. ## Summary Table | Country | GDP Growth (2025) | GDP Growth (2026) | GDP Growth (2027) | Inflation (2025) | Inflation (2027) | |--------|------------------|------------------|------------------|------------------|------------------| | Saudi Arabia | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | | UAE | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 8.2% | 5.4% | | Egypt | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 13.7% | 11.9% | | Jordan | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | | Lebanon | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 10.0% | 5.4% | | Morocco | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 8.2% | 5.4% | | Algeria | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | | Tunisia | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | ## Conclusion The Arab region's macroeconomic outlook is shaped by global trends such as the green transition, climate change, and AI development, alongside regional challenges like conflicts, trade disruptions, and fiscal vulnerabilities. The report highlights the importance of diversification, fiscal reform, and investment in non-hydrocarbon sectors to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. The nowcasting models developed by ESCWA offer a valuable tool for real-time economic analysis and informed policy-making.