2025-06-14-Jefferies-孟买证券交易所有限公司（BSE）_访问日反馈_提升现有和新平台_15页_679kb

BSE Limited Equity Research Summary

Rating and Price Target

• Hold Rating: Maintained despite positive prospects.
• Price Target: INR 2,900 (up from INR 2,333), based on 45x FY27E core P/E, reflecting better premium quality and growth projections.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue and Profit Growth:
  • Revenue CAGR of 23% projected for FY25-28E.
  • PAT (Profit After Tax) CAGR of 30%, driven by improved operating margins and higher notional turnover.
  • EPS estimated at INR 57.88 for FY27E, up 9% from adjusted figures due to better premium-to-notional ratios.

F&O Segment and Market Trends

• Current F&O: Moderation in turnover and premiums due to market volatility, but notional ADTO increased ~14% year-over-year, with premium-to-notional ratio improving to ~17 bps.
• Expiry Day Transition: Minimal expected impact on volumes or premiums if shifted from Thursday to Tuesday, as per management analysis.
• Liquidity: Common contract notes may expand BSE's cash turnover share from ~6% by simplifying multi-exchange trading.
• Industry Competition: Index options contracts traded decreased ~72%, but BSE saw a ~43% drop in its own index options contracts, offset by a 68% increase in premium ADTO and 3x jump in premium per contract.

Growth Initiatives

• Longer-Term Derivatives: Focus on onboarding clients for debt, currency, and commodity contracts to diversify offerings.
• Data Services: Ramp-up planned to boost revenue, building on existing strong top-line gains in derivatives.
• Platform Upgrades: Traders and brokers are urged to update front-end systems ahead of regulatory clarity on expiry day changes.

Key Risks and Catalysts

• Risks: Further regulatory tightening in F&O, rising clearing costs, and declining investor/base participation could pressure margins and growth.
• Catalysts:
  • Expansion in F&O market share via common contract notes.
  • Higher quality premiums from better premium-to-notional ratios.
  • Increased monetization of co-location services.

Valuation

• Current P/E: 57x FY26E core P/E, viewed as pricey, but justified by growth potential.
• FY28E Projections: Revenue INR 55,177 billion, Operating Profit INR 35,563 billion, PAT INR 29,329 billion.

Long-Term Outlook

• Market Position: BSE benefits from being Asia's oldest exchange, offering a broad range of services.
• Financial Projections: Maintained Hold due to elevated risks, with revenue and profit growing steadily, though dependent on regulatory outcomes.