2025-06-13-Jefferies-麦当劳公司（MCD）_再次即将结束EDAP领导地位；回调时买入_12页_729kb

McDonald's Corp: Investment Summary

Core Content and Investment Thesis

This report reiterates a Buy rating for McDonald's Corporation (MCD), with a Price Target of $360, representing a +19% increase from the current price of $303.16. The key drivers for the stock's performance are:

• Near-term acceleration of Same-Store Sales (SSS):
  • The US SSS is expected to accelerate due to strong April performance, driven by the Minecraft Movie Meal and Happy Meal promotions, and the upcoming launch of McCrispy Strips and S'mores McFlurry.
  • The chicken Snack Wrap is set to return in July 2025, further boosting SSS.
• Medium-term unit growth:
  • The company is targeting 4-5% global unit growth over the next few years, with higher growth in the US.
• Global marketing and menu innovation:
  • McDonald's is leveraging a coordinated global approach to marketing and menu innovation, enhancing its competitive edge.
• Valuation and multiple expansion:
  • The stock is currently trading at 16.5x EV/EBITDA for 2026, while peers like YUM and DPZ trade at ~18x, indicating potential for multiple expansion.

Key Information

• SSS Growth Expectations:
  • 2Q25E: 4% (vs Street estimate of 2.5%)
  • 2025E: 2.0%
  • 2026E: 2.8%
• EBITDA Projections:
  • 2025E: $14.6B
  • 2026E: $15.5B
• Adjusted EPS Projections:
  • 2025E: $12.24
  • 2026E: $13.20
• Operating Margins:
  • Mid-to-high 40% range, already category-leading.
• G&A Efficiency:
  • 2.2% of system sales, compared to 1.7% for YUM, offering longer-term leverage opportunities.
• Valuation:
  • The current valuation is seen as relatively undervalued.
  • The EV/EBITDA multiple for 2026 is 16.5x, while peers are at ~18x, suggesting potential for multiple expansion.

Main Points

• Near-term Catalysts:
  • Minecraft Movie Meal and Happy Meal drove a surge in credit/debit card spend.
  • McCrispy Strips and S'mores McFlurry are expected to support SSS growth.
  • The chicken Snack Wrap return in July 2025 is a key SSS driver.
• Digital and Rewards Strategy:
  • MCD is investing in digital platforms and rewards to drive customer engagement and loyalty.
• Global Expansion:
  • The company is focusing on unit growth across global markets, including US and China.
• Competitive Positioning:
  • McDonald's is a trade-down beneficiary, with a value proposition and low price point combos.
  • The company's brand strength, size, scale, and supply chain efficiency give it a competitive advantage.
• Risk/Reward Outlook:
  • Base Case: $360 (19x EV/EBITDA for 2026)
  • Upside Scenario: $387 (20x EV/EBITDA for 2026)
  • Downside Scenario: $247 (15x EV/EBITDA for 2026)

Sustainability Matters

• Top Material Issues:
  • Labor Practices: Impact on talent attraction and retention, affecting service levels and customer experience.
  • Supply Chain Management: Responsible sourcing and innovation in sustainable alternatives.
• Company Targets:
  • 100% cage-free eggs in the US and Canada by 2025.
  • Net zero emissions by 2050.
  • 100% certified/recycled/renewable packaging by FYE25.
• Questions to Management:
  • How do turnover and retention vary across different levels of the organization?
  • What are the key initiatives to reduce Scope 1-3 emissions and caged-egg use? What is the impact on margins?

Catalysts for Growth

• Improved commodity environment.
• SG&A savings from corporate restructuring.
• Accelerated adoption of mobile order and delivery.
• Potential for more unit growth in all segments.
• SSS visibility in the US and China, with large European markets also showing improvement.

Financial Highlights

• Systemwide Sales (FY Dec):
  • 2024A: $25,921.0M
  • 2025E: $26,322.3M
  • 2026E: $27,700.1M
• EPS:
  • 2024A: $11.72
  • 2025E: $12.24
  • 2026E: $13.20
• Adjusted EPS:
  • 2025E: $12.24
  • 2026E: $13.20
• Consensus vs. Jefferies Estimates:
  • For 2025E, Jefferies estimates are within 1% of the Street consensus.
  • For 2026E, Jefferies estimates are within 1% of the Street consensus.

Valuation Comparison

• Comparable Valuations:
  • MCD: 16.5x EV/EBITDA for 2026
  • DPZ: ~18x EV/EBITDA for 2026
  • YUM: ~18x EV/EBITDA for 2026
• Multiple Expansion Opportunity:
  • Jefferies uses 18.5x as the basis for the $360 PT.
  • Upside could push the stock closer to $400.

Summary

McDonald's Corp is seen as a strong investment opportunity, driven by near-term SSS acceleration and medium-term unit growth. The company's digital, delivery, drive-thru, and development strategies are expected to enhance its market position and drive incremental demand. With a strong brand, operational efficiency, and sustainability initiatives, MCD is well-positioned for long-term growth. The current valuation is considered undervalued, and the potential for multiple expansion supports the Buy rating and $360 PT. The stock is expected to outperform peers in SSS and revenue growth, with a clear path to achieving 4-5% unit growth and category-high operating margins.