> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # iQiyi (IQ US) 1Q26E Earnings Summary and Business Outlook ## Core Content and Key Information iQiyi's first-quarter 2026 earnings forecast indicates a decline in total revenue and a non-GAAP net loss, primarily due to challenges in the content distribution and other non-core businesses. However, the company's core membership business is expected to remain resilient, and cash flow generation is anticipated to improve. ### Revenue and Profit Forecast - **Total Revenue**: Expected to drop by 14% YoY and 9% QoQ to **RMB6.2bn**. - **Non-GAAP Net Loss**: Projected at **RMB249mn**, down from a net income of **RMB308mn** in 1Q25. - **Bloomberg Consensus**: Predicts a **RMB152mn** net loss, which is less severe than the forecasted loss, indicating the company's performance may be better than expected. ### Business Segments - **Membership Revenue**: Expected to decline by 5% YoY but recover by 2% QoQ to **RMB4.2bn**, driven by strong performance of hit titles such as *Pursuit of Jade* and *How Dare You*. - **Online Advertising Revenue**: Projected to fall by 8% YoY and 10% QoQ to **RMB1.2bn** due to a relatively low season. - **Content Distribution Revenue**: Expected to decrease by 44% YoY and 55% QoQ to **RMB352mn**, as iQiyi adjusts its strategy to reduce content distribution to other channels. - **Others Revenue**: Anticipated to drop by 48% YoY and 21% QoQ to **RMB431mn**. ### Financial Performance - **Non-GAAP OPM (Operating Margin)**: Expected to contract by 9ppt YoY to **-2%** in 1Q26E, mainly due to lower revenue from non-core businesses. - **OCF (Operating Cash Flow)**: Positive at **c.RMB150mn**, attributed to fewer new projects in production and more efficient content review cycles. - **Cash Flow Trends**: Improved in 1Q26E, with **Net Cash from Operations** expected to reach **RMB4,718mn**. ## AI Progress and Strategic Initiatives - iQiyi launched its **AI agent platform, NaDou Pro**, in March 2026. - The platform leverages large models, content production expertise, and digital assets to develop over **70 agents** across the full cycle of film & TV content creation. - **AI Theatre** has used NaDou Pro to produce **16 titles**, including films, TV series, and anime. - Future plans include allowing content creators to use NaDou Pro for content generation and sharing revenue with them. ## Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: Reduced to **US$1.80**, based on a **0.5x FY26E P/S (Price-to-Sales)** multiple. - **Previous Target Price**: **US$2.00** based on a **18x FY26E non-GAAP PE (Price-to-Earnings)** multiple. - **Current Price**: **US$1.25**, with an upside of **44.0%** to the target price. - **Sector Comparison**: The P/S multiple is at a discount to the sector average of **4x**, due to intense competition in China's video streaming industry. ## Financial Summary ### Revenue Trends - **FY24A**: RMB29,225mn - **FY25A**: RMB27,291mn - **FY26E**: RMB26,248mn - **FY27E**: RMB27,233mn - **FY28E**: RMB28,296mn ### Gross Margin - **FY24A**: 24.9% - **FY25A**: 21.1% - **FY26E**: 20.1% - **FY27E**: 22.2% - **FY28E**: 23.1% ### Non-GAAP Net Profit - **FY24A**: RMB1,512.2mn - **FY25A**: RMB280.6mn - **FY26E**: RMB220.9mn - **FY27E**: RMB851.9mn - **FY28E**: RMB1,243.8mn ### EPS (Earnings Per Share) - **FY24A**: RMB1.57 - **FY25A**: RMB0.29 - **FY26E**: RMB0.23 - **FY27E**: RMB0.88 - **FY28E**: RMB1.29 ### Consensus EPS - **FY24A**: RMB1.57 - **FY25A**: RMB0.29 - **FY26E**: RMB0.48 - **FY27E**: RMB0.93 - **FY28E**: RMB1.71 ## Shareholding and Stock Data - **Market Cap**: **US$1,205.9mn** - **Average 3-Month Trading Value**: **US$10.2mn** - **52-Week High/Low**: **US$2.79/US$1.20** - **Total Issued Shares**: **964.8mn** ## Shareholding Structure - **Baidu**: 45.1% - **PAG**: 12.2% ## Analyst Ratings and Recommendations - **CMBIGM Rating**: **BUY** - **Reasoning**: Resilient membership business and new growth opportunities such as AI and overseas markets. ## Analyst Contact - **Saiyi HE, CFA**: (852) 3916 1739, hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk - **Wentao LU, CFA**: luwentao@cmbi.com.hk - **Ye TAO, CFA**: (852) 3850 5226, franktao@cmbi.com.hk - **Shuyin GUO**: (852) 3916 3716, guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk ## Key Financial Ratios - **P/S (Price-to-Sales)**: 0.5x FY26E - **P/E (Price-to-Earnings)**: Not applicable due to non-GAAP earnings - **ROE (Return on Equity)**: Expected to improve to **4.2%** in FY28E - **Current Ratio**: Expected to be **0.5x** in FY26E, improving to **0.6x** in FY27E and FY28E ## CMBIGM Ratings Definitions - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark ## Important Disclosures - The information in this report is based on analyses and is not guaranteed for accuracy. - CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. - Investors are encouraged to consult with a professional financial advisor. - This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without written consent.