> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 米高集团MIGAO Group (9879.HK) # 25Q2-Q3净利润同比增长 $22.1\%$ ，拓展越南市场和中东市场 25Q2-Q3 Net Profit +22.1% YoY & Expand the Vietnamese and Middle Eastern markets # 最新动态 > 2026财年六个月净利润同比增长 $22.1\%$ 。2026财年六个月，集团继续巩固其作为中国领先钾肥企业的地位。于该期间，集团收入同比增长约 $10.5\%$ 至人民币23.52亿元，该增长主要受集团在钾肥市场所提供产品的整体平均售价上升所推动，增幅足以抵消集团所提供产品及生产服务总销量下降约 $15.0\%$ （由2025财年六个月的约103.70万吨降至2026财年六个月的约88.10万吨）。收入增长反映尽管集团上调钾肥产品的整体平均售价以应对全球钾肥市场波动，但对集团所提供产品及生产服务的市场需求持续上升。2026财年六个月，集团溢利同比增长约 $22.1\%$ 至约人民币92.0百万元，该增长主要由于集团收入及毛利的增长。2026财年六个月，氯化钾及硫酸钾的销售占集团收入的前两部分，分别占集团总收入的约 $92.3\%$ 及 $6.7\%$ > 拓展越南市场和中东市场。集团计划在越南建立和经营新生产设施，越南设施有望满足上述新兴亚洲市场需求。集团已订立谅解备忘录，以分租越南设施的地块。截至2025年12月，集团已取得胡志明市主管部门的若干必要批准，包括越南设施投资项目的原则性投资批准及投资注册证书。此外，集团正评估及考虑中东的战略业务发展机遇。有关计划与集团的长期全球发展战略一致，专注于利用海外动态市场潜力、提高技术持续应用及创新并促进互利合作。于2026财年六个月，集团已完成于阿拉伯联合酋长国杜拜国际金融中心自由区及杜拜多种商品交易中心自由区附属公司的注册及办公室租赁。 # 动向解读 > 在建项目为公司发展奠定基础。2026财年六个月，集团资本开支约为人民币34.5百万元，主要用于建设开发集团于中国黑龙江省的仓储及生产中心，该项目预期动用时间为2028年3月31日之前。越南扩张项目预期动用时间为2027年3月31日之前；研发中心项目为集团位于四川省的研发中心，预期动用时间为2027年3月31日之前。升级和更换设备和机器预期动用时间为2027年3月31日之前。 # 策略建议 > 盈利预测。我们给予公司2026-2028财年归母净利润分别为3.88亿元、4.27亿元、4.68亿元。参考可比公司估值和考虑到A-H估值价差，我们给予公司2027财年17倍PE，按照港币兑人民币为0.89计算，对应目标价为8.98港币，维持“收集”评级。 主要财务数据及预测 <table><tr><td></td><td>2025A</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td><td>2028E</td></tr><tr><td>营业收入(百万元)</td><td>4966</td><td>5663</td><td>6163</td><td>6271</td></tr><tr><td>同比(%)</td><td>32%</td><td>14%</td><td>9%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>归母净利润(百万元)</td><td>307</td><td>388</td><td>427</td><td>468</td></tr><tr><td>同比(%)</td><td>22%</td><td>26%</td><td>10%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>EPS(元/股)</td><td>0.34</td><td>0.43</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.51</td></tr><tr><td>PE</td><td>14.50</td><td>16.64</td><td>15.12</td><td>13.81</td></tr></table> 资料来源：公司年报（2024），OpenDelP研究所； 表：可比上市公司估值比较(2026年2月26日) <table><tr><td rowspan="2">股票代码</td><td rowspan="2">公司名称</td><td rowspan="2">市值 （亿元）</td><td colspan="3">归母净利润（亿元）</td><td colspan="3">PE（倍）</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2024</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td></tr><tr><td>000792.SZ</td><td>盐湖股份</td><td>2064</td><td>46.63</td><td>67.47</td><td>80.43</td><td>44</td><td>31</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>000408.SZ</td><td>藏格矿业</td><td>1366</td><td>25.80</td><td>36.17</td><td>55.05</td><td>53</td><td>38</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>平均</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>49</td><td>34</td><td>25</td></tr></table> 资料来源：OpenDelP 研究所 # 风险提示 钾肥价格波动的风险、下游需求不及预期、公司项目进展不及预期；宏观经济风险。 财务报表分析和预测（单位：百万元） <table><tr><td>资产负债表</td><td>2025A</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td><td>2028E</td></tr><tr><td>流动资产</td><td>4,448</td><td>5,499</td><td>6,256</td><td>6,871</td></tr><tr><td>现金</td><td>751</td><td>824</td><td>1,176</td><td>1,709</td></tr><tr><td>应收账款及票据</td><td>443</td><td>865</td><td>942</td><td>958</td></tr><tr><td>存货</td><td>183</td><td>668</td><td>728</td><td>734</td></tr><tr><td>其他</td><td>3,071</td><td>3,141</td><td>3,411</td><td>3,469</td></tr><tr><td>非流动资产</td><td>799</td><td>764</td><td>730</td><td>697</td></tr><tr><td>固定资产</td><td>474</td><td>436</td><td>401</td><td>369</td></tr><tr><td>无形资产</td><td>29</td><td>29</td><td>29</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>其他</td><td>295</td><td>299</td><td>299</td><td>299</td></tr><tr><td>资产总计</td><td>5,246</td><td>6,263</td><td>6,986</td><td>7,568</td></tr><tr><td>流动负债</td><td>2,162</td><td>2,695</td><td>2,941</td><td>3,028</td></tr><tr><td>短期借款</td><td>428</td><td>478</td><td>528</td><td>578</td></tr><tr><td>应付账款及票据</td><td>533</td><td>535</td><td>582</td><td>587</td></tr><tr><td>其他</td><td>1,201</td><td>1,682</td><td>1,830</td><td>1,862</td></tr><tr><td>非流动负债</td><td>168</td><td>316</td><td>466</td><td>616</td></tr><tr><td>长期债务</td><td>154</td><td>304</td><td>454</td><td>604</td></tr><tr><td>其他</td><td>13</td><td>12</td><td>12</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>负债合计</td><td>2,330</td><td>3,011</td><td>3,407</td><td>3,644</td></tr><tr><td>普通股股本</td><td>64</td><td>64</td><td>64</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>储备</td><td>2,676</td><td>2,970</td><td>3,257</td><td>3,558</td></tr><tr><td>归属母公司股东权益</td><td>2,731</td><td>3,026</td><td>3,312</td><td>3,613</td></tr><tr><td>少数股东权益</td><td>186</td><td>227</td><td>267</td><td>311</td></tr><tr><td>股东权益合计</td><td>2,917</td><td>3,252</td><td>3,579</td><td>3,924</td></tr><tr><td>负债和股东权益</td><td>5,246</td><td>6,263</td><td>6,986</td><td>7,568</td></tr></table> <table><tr><td>现金流量表</td><td>2025A</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td><td>2028E</td></tr><tr><td>经营活动现金流</td><td>118</td><td>28</td><td>351</td><td>558</td></tr><tr><td>净利润</td><td>307</td><td>388</td><td>427</td><td>468</td></tr><tr><td>少数股东损益</td><td>32</td><td>41</td><td>40</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>折旧摊销</td><td>19</td><td>38</td><td>35</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>营运资金变动及其他</td><td>-240</td><td>-439</td><td>-151</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>投资活动现金流</td><td>-271</td><td>-21</td><td>-14</td><td>-14</td></tr><tr><td>资本支出</td><td>-59</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>其他投资</td><td>-212</td><td>-21</td><td>-14</td><td>-14</td></tr><tr><td>筹资活动现金流</td><td>93</td><td>64</td><td>13</td><td>-12</td></tr><tr><td>借款增加</td><td>148</td><td>200</td><td>200</td><td>200</td></tr><tr><td>普通股增加</td><td>26</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>已付股利</td><td>-55</td><td>-95</td><td>-143</td><td>-168</td></tr><tr><td>其他</td><td>-25</td><td>-41</td><td>-44</td><td>-43</td></tr><tr><td>现金净增加额</td><td>-62</td><td>73</td><td>352</td><td>534</td></tr></table> <table><tr><td>利润表</td><td>2025A</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td><td>2028E</td></tr><tr><td>营业收入</td><td>4,966</td><td>5,663</td><td>6,163</td><td>6,271</td></tr><tr><td>其他收入</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>营业成本</td><td>4,324</td><td>4,812</td><td>5,239</td><td>5,287</td></tr><tr><td>销售费用</td><td>32</td><td>57</td><td>62</td><td>63</td></tr><tr><td>管理费用</td><td>137</td><td>176</td><td>191</td><td>201</td></tr><tr><td>研发费用</td><td>35</td><td>40</td><td>43</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>财务费用</td><td>20</td><td>27</td><td>29</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>除税前溢利</td><td>413</td><td>536</td><td>585</td><td>640</td></tr><tr><td>所得税</td><td>74</td><td>107</td><td>117</td><td>128</td></tr><tr><td>净利润</td><td>339</td><td>429</td><td>468</td><td>512</td></tr><tr><td>少数股东损益</td><td>32</td><td>41</td><td>40</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>归属母公司净利润</td><td>307</td><td>388</td><td>427</td><td>468</td></tr><tr><td>EBIT</td><td>433</td><td>564</td><td>614</td><td>662</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA</td><td>452</td><td>602</td><td>649</td><td>694</td></tr><tr><td>EPS</td><td>0.34</td><td>0.43</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.51</td></tr></table> <table><tr><td>主要财务比率</td><td>2025A</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td><td>2028E</td></tr><tr><td>成长能力</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>营业收入</td><td>31.70%</td><td>14.04%</td><td>8.83%</td><td>1.74%</td></tr><tr><td>归属母公司净利润</td><td>21.78%</td><td>26.31%</td><td>10.06%</td><td>9.48%</td></tr><tr><td>获利能力</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>毛利率</td><td>12.93%</td><td>15.03%</td><td>15.00%</td><td>15.69%</td></tr><tr><td>销售净利率</td><td>6.19%</td><td>6.86%</td><td>6.94%</td><td>7.46%</td></tr><tr><td>ROE</td><td>11.26%</td><td>12.84%</td><td>12.91%</td><td>12.95%</td></tr><tr><td>ROIC</td><td>10.17%</td><td>11.18%</td><td>10.77%</td><td>10.37%</td></tr></table> 偿债能力 <table><tr><td>资产负债率</td><td>44.41%</td><td>48.07%</td><td>48.77%</td><td>48.15%</td></tr><tr><td>净负债比率</td><td>-5.78%</td><td>-1.28%</td><td>-5.41%</td><td>-13.43%</td></tr><tr><td>流动比率</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.27</td></tr><tr><td>速动比率</td><td>1.87</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.94</td></tr><tr><td>营运能力</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>总资产周转率</td><td>1.01</td><td>0.98</td><td>0.93</td><td>0.86</td></tr><tr><td>应收账款周转率</td><td>9.57</td><td>8.66</td><td>6.82</td><td>6.60</td></tr><tr><td>应付账款周转率</td><td>9.80</td><td>9.02</td><td>9.38</td><td>9.04</td></tr><tr><td>每股指标（元）</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>每股收益</td><td>0.34</td><td>0.43</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.51</td></tr><tr><td>每股经营现金流</td><td>0.13</td><td>0.03</td><td>0.39</td><td>0.61</td></tr><tr><td>每股净资产</td><td>3.00</td><td>3.33</td><td>3.64</td><td>3.98</td></tr><tr><td>估值比率</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>P/E</td><td>14.50</td><td>16.64</td><td>15.12</td><td>13.81</td></tr><tr><td>P/B</td><td>1.64</td><td>2.14</td><td>1.95</td><td>1.79</td></tr><tr><td>EV/EBITDA</td><td>9.54</td><td>10.67</td><td>9.66</td><td>8.55</td></tr></table> 备注：（1）表中计算估值指标的收盘价日期为2026年2月25日；（2）以上各表均为简表 资料来源：OpenDelP 研究所 # 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，拥有北京航空航天大学本科学位和香港大学金融学硕士学位，主要覆盖能源化工和材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在 wind 发布报告超过 600 篇，主要覆盖标的包括： 1）化工&化肥：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国联塑、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、浦林成山、中海石油化学、中国旭阳集团、龙蟠科技、彩客新能源、天德化工、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、米高集团、大成生化科技； 2）能源&公用事业：中创新航、中集安瑞科、新奥能源、中国电力、长江基建集团、中国能源建设、中煤能源、宏华集团、中海油田服务、安东油田服务、惠生工程、协合新能源、绿色动力环保、中国光大绿色环保、首钢资源、新特能源、中裕能源、山高新能源、北京燃气蓝天； 3）有色&材料：中国宏桥、紫金黄金国际、万国黄金集团、潼关黄金、中国军王、中广核矿业、稀美资源、首佳科技、信义光能、华新水泥、华润建材科技、大明国际。 微信：zhuangcharles 邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk 电话：(852)9748 7114; (86) 18801353 3537 # COMPANY RATING DEFINITION The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months <table><tr><td>Rating</td><td></td><td>Definition</td></tr><tr><td>Buy</td><td>买入</td><td>Relative Performance>15%; or the fundamental outlook of the Company or sector is favorable.</td></tr><tr><td>Accumulate</td><td>收集</td><td>Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the Company or sector is favorable.</td></tr><tr><td>Neutral</td><td>中性</td><td>Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the Company or sector is neutral.</td></tr><tr><td>Reduce</td><td>减持</td><td>Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the Company or sector is unfavorable.</td></tr><tr><td>Sell</td><td>卖出</td><td>Relative Performance < -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the Company or sector is unfavorable.</td></tr></table> # SECTOR RATING DEFINITION The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months <table><tr><td>Rating</td><td></td><td>Definition</td></tr><tr><td>Outperform</td><td>跑赢大市</td><td>Relative Performance>5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.</td></tr><tr><td>Neutral</td><td>中性</td><td>Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.</td></tr><tr><td>Underperform</td><td>跑输大市</td><td>Relative Performance<-5%; Or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.</td></tr></table> # DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than $1\%$ of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated with Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries. # DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited group of companies. 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