2025-06-13-花旗集团-Recruit_Holdings（6098）_Recruit_Holdings（6098.T）_维持买入-在具有挑战性的条件下精简业务推动增长_16页_648kb

Citi Research Recommendation

Citi Research maintains a Buy recommendation on Recruit Holdings (6098.T) with a target price of ¥10,400, based on revised earnings estimates after FY3/25 results. Profit growth is expected through cost streamlining and higher average prices in the HR tech segment, despite challenges from declining US job ad volumes.

Key Highlights

• Business Conditions: Recruit faces macroeconomic pressures, but management's profit-oriented strategy is viewed positively.
• FY3/26 Guidance: Sales projected at ¥3.52 trillion (-1.1% YoY), OP at ¥540 billion (up 10.1%), driven by efficiency gains.
• Segment Changes: HR solutions moved to HR technology segment, boosting its revenue share while reducing the predecessor segment.

Valuation and Risks

• Target Price: ¥10,400 via DCF model (WACC 7.4%, terminal growth 2.0%).
• Risks: Exaggerated US recruitment ad declines, HR tech recovery delays, domestic market saturation, or unexpected impairments.

Expected total return stands at 26.7%, with a dividend yield of 0.3%, reflecting confidence in long-term potential amidst short-term macro challenges.