20180416-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_10页_281kb
报告摘要
EM Strategy Summary - April 16, 2018
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the Emerging Markets (EM) strategy outlook for the week of April 16, 2018, focusing on key economic data releases, central bank decisions, and market developments in CEEMEA, Asia, and Latin America (Latam).
Main Points
Market Overview
- Global Markets: Slight changes were observed this morning, influenced by military action in Syria and rising geopolitical tensions.
- Asian Markets: Credit and FX markets traded weaker, though some equities showed gains. Oil prices had a limited reaction.
- U.S. Sanctions: U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is expected to announce new sanctions on companies linked to military equipment in Syria.
- Ruble: The currency remained relatively unchanged but is vulnerable to further weakness due to upcoming announcements.
CEEMEA Region
- South Africa: The focus is on the March CPI release on April 18. The inflation rate is expected to fall to 3.9% y/y, with core inflation unchanged at 4.1%. The SARB is likely to cut rates in July by 25 basis points.
- ZAR: The currency has slowed its appreciation, but remains resilient compared to other CEEMEA currencies.
- Poland: Core CPI for March is expected to drop to 0.5% y/y from 0.8% in February. The headline CPI surprised to the downside at 1.7% y/y, indicating weaker inflationary pressures than expected.
- Turkey: The Treasury will issue 5y fixed-coupon bonds on April 17. Demand is expected to be strong due to improved risk sentiment and expectations of a rate hike by the central bank on April 25.
Asia Region
- Indonesia: Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to keep policy rates on hold at its meeting on April 19. The central bank has been using macroprudential policies to stimulate growth, including reducing reserve requirements and cutting interest rates on reserves.
- China: The March industrial production and Q1 GDP figures are due on April 17. GDP is forecasted to rise 6.8% y/y, in line with expectations, with stronger-than-anticipated growth in industrial production, investment, and exports.
- Sri Lanka: The president has suspended parliament until May 8, adding political uncertainty.
Latam Region
- Brazil: Mid-month inflation data for April is expected on April 20. Investors will watch for subcomponents like food and services inflation, which have been surprising to the downside. The DI curve suggests further rate cuts by the BCB.
Key Information
- IMF Spring Meetings: Officials from G10 and EM countries will meet in Washington DC. The IMF is expected to revise its global growth forecasts upwards.
- Growth Outlook: The global growth forecast for 2018 is 4.9%, with EM growth at 5.0%.
- Rate Cuts: Limited rate cuts are expected in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, South Africa, and Egypt.
- Currency Dynamics: South Africa's currency is seen as a safe haven for investors looking to reduce exposure to other CEEMEA markets.
- Investment Risks: The document includes disclaimers regarding the use of research, the non-independence of the analysis, and potential conflicts of interest.
Tables Summary
Table 1: IMF Global Growth Forecasts
| Region | WEO Update Jan 18 | Estimate 2016 | Estimate 2017 | Projections 2018 | Projections 2019 | Change from Oct 17 WEO 2018 | Change from Oct 17 WEO 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Developed Markets | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
| United States | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | |
| Euro Area | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Emerging Markets | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Brazil | -3.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| China | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| India | 7.1 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mexico | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | |
| Russia | -0.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| South Africa | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
Table 2: BNPP Central Bank Policy Rate Forecasts for 2018
| Country | Current | Last Change | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | 2.50 | May-17 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| India | 5.75 | Aug-17 | 5.75 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| Korea | 1.50 | Oct-17 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Turkey (LLW) | 12.75 | Dec-17 | 13.25 | 13.25 | 13.25 |
| Argentina | 27.25 | Jan-18 | 24.75 | 23.25 | 22.75 |
| Colombia | 4.50 | Jan-18 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Mexico | 7.50 | Feb-18 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 6.50 |
| South Africa | 6.50 | Mar-18 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
Strategy Contacts
- Wike Groenenberg: Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC, BNP Paribas London Branch, +44 20 7595 8746
- Erkin Isik: FX&IR CEEMEA Strategy, Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S., +90 216 635 2987
- Gustavo Mendonca: FX&IR Latam Strategy, Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A., +55 11 3841 3445
- Dawn Kwa: FX & IR Asia Strategy, BNP Paribas Singapore Branch, +65 6210 3263
Legal and Disclosure Notes
- The document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
- It is a marketing communication and not investment research for MiFID II purposes.
- It does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any financial instruments.
- No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information.
- The document may contain simulated performance data and is not indicative of future results.
- BNPP may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed in this document.
- Information is confidential and may not be distributed without prior written consent.
- Important disclosures are provided for options, ETFs, and convertible securities, including risks and potential conflicts of interest.
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