世界银行-如何管理拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的风险（英文）-2018.10-91页-5mb

Summary of "From Known Unknowns to Black Swans: How to Manage Risk in Latin America and the Caribbean"

Core Content

This report, published by the World Bank in October 2018, analyzes the economic and fiscal challenges facing Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and explores strategies for managing risk in the region. It emphasizes the distinction between "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" (black swans) and highlights the region's improved capacity to manage risks through insurance and aid mechanisms.

Main Points

• Economic Growth:

  • After a six-year slowdown, including a 1.0% GDP contraction in 2016, the LAC region grew by 1.1% in 2017.
  • However, growth slowed significantly in 2018, with the region expected to grow by only 0.6%.
  • South America (SA) growth is expected to remain flat in 2018 and increase to 1.2% in 2019.
  • Central America (CA) and the Caribbean (MCC) are projected to grow at 2.8% and 3.7%, respectively.
  • Mexico is expected to grow at 2.3% in 2018.

• Fiscal Challenges:

  • 29 out of 32 LAC countries are projected to have a negative fiscal balance in 2018.
  • External public debt for the region exceeds 60% of GDP, with six countries having debt ratios above 80%.
  • High debt levels are undermining credit ratings and increasing the cost of international credit.

• External Factors:

  • The U.S. monetary policy normalization, particularly the rise in interest rates, has led to a sharp decline in net capital inflows to the region.
  • Net capital inflows fell from 49.6 billion dollars in January 2018 to 18.8 billion dollars in August 2018.
  • The U.S. and China's growth remains relatively robust, but the external environment has become more uncertain.

• Regional Risks:

  • The report identifies risks such as macroeconomic crises (e.g., Argentina), growth slowdowns (e.g., Brazil), and the ongoing crisis in Venezuela.
  • Natural disasters, including earthquakes and hurricanes, pose significant risks, especially in the Caribbean.

• Risk Management Strategies:

  • The region has made progress in using insurance mechanisms to manage risks, particularly for "known unknowns."
  • The Pacific Alliance Catastrophe Bond, launched in February 2018, is an example of a successful insurance mechanism against earthquakes.
  • Ex-post aid remains crucial for managing risks that are highly correlated across countries, such as hurricanes.

Key Information

• Growth Trends:

  • LAC growth has been uneven, with SA lagging significantly compared to CA and the Caribbean.
  • The region's growth is expected to recover slightly in 2019, but the path remains uncertain.

• Fiscal Policy:

  • Fiscal adjustment is necessary to ensure debt sustainability, especially with declining capital inflows.
  • The report stresses the importance of maintaining public investment in infrastructure and social programs during fiscal adjustment.

• External Shocks:

  • Commodity prices, U.S. growth, and China's economic performance have historically been key drivers of LAC growth.
  • The recent decline in net capital inflows and the uncertainty in international markets have worsened the economic outlook.

• Insurance and Aid:

  • The distinction between "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" is central to the report.
  • Insurance mechanisms are effective for known risks, while ex-post aid is essential for black swan events.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the LAC region faces significant risks, it has made substantial progress in risk management. The development of insurance mechanisms for known risks and the availability of ex-post aid have improved the region's resilience. However, the ongoing fiscal challenges and the unpredictable nature of some risks (black swans) mean that the region must continue to refine its risk management strategies to ensure long-term stability and growth.