战略与国际研究中心-Department-of-Defense-Report-on-Security-in-the-Taiwan-Straits_-1999_18页_140kb

Summary of the Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait (FY99 Appropriations Bill Report)

I. Core Content

This report, submitted in response to the FY99 Appropriations Bill, evaluates the security situation in the Taiwan Strait with a focus on the military capabilities of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan as of 2005. It outlines the military strategies, force structures, and technological developments of both sides, emphasizing the evolving balance of power and the implications for regional stability.

II. Main Points

• Security Situation: The security situation in the Taiwan Strait remains calm with no immediate threat of hostilities. Both Beijing and Taipei have expressed a preference for peaceful resolution, but Beijing has not renounced the use of force in case of perceived threats such as Taiwan's formal declaration of independence or foreign intervention.

• Military Strategy Shift: The PRC has shifted its military strategy from large-scale "total war" to "local wars under high-tech conditions," focusing on asymmetric capabilities to counter potential adversaries. This includes the development of advanced missile systems and the integration of modern technology into its forces.

• Taiwan's Defense Strategy: Taiwan has abandoned plans to militarily recover the mainland and instead focuses on three key areas: maintaining air superiority, conducting counter-blockade operations, and defending against amphibious and aerial assaults. The island's military modernization is driven by the need to deter Chinese aggression and ensure technological superiority.

• Force Structure and Size:

  • The PRC maintains a large military force, including the PLA (over 2.5 million), the PAP (one million), and a reserve-militia component (over 1.5 million).
  • Taiwan's military, however, has been downsized, with an estimated total of around 400,000 personnel by 2005, including 70,000 in the Air Force and 60,000-70,000 in the Navy.

III. Key Military Capabilities

A. People's Liberation Army (PLA)

• Conventional Missiles:

  • The PLA has significantly expanded its conventional ballistic missile force, including SRBMs and LACMs. By 2005, it is expected to have deployed two types of SRBMs and a first-generation LACM.
  • SRBMs are expected to target key military infrastructure, C2 nodes, and logistics facilities.

• Air Force:

  • The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has over 400,000 personnel and 4,500 combat aircraft by 2005.
  • It includes a mix of second and third-generation aircraft, with limited fourth-generation platforms.
  • The PLAAF is developing BVR AAMs and improving its aerial refueling and airborne early warning capabilities.

• Navy:

  • The PLAN has over 260,000 personnel, including 50 destroyers and frigates, 60 diesel submarines, and 6 Han- and Xia-class submarines.
  • The navy is modernizing with the acquisition of Russian-built KILO-class submarines and is developing ASCMs and advanced air defense systems.
  • It is also improving its readiness and endurance for operations in the region.

• Submarines:

  • China has a significant quantitative and qualitative advantage in submarine capabilities over Taiwan.
  • Submarines are being armed with submerged-launch cruise missiles and are expected to improve ASW operations through 2005.

• Amphibious Forces:

  • The PLAN has sufficient sealift capacity to transport one infantry division.
  • Amphibious operations are being refined and tested as part of broader military modernization efforts.

B. Taiwan's Military

• Fighters:

  • The Taiwan Air Force (TAF) operates 180 F-5E/F fighters and 130 Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDFs), with 150 F-16s and 60 Mirage 2000-5s also in service.
  • The IDF is technologically advanced with fly-by-wire controls and a blended wing-body design.
  • The F-16 and Mirage 2000-5 are equipped with advanced AAMs and are considered Taiwan's most formidable air defense assets.

• Air Defense Systems:

  • Taiwan has deployed the Improved HAWK (I-HAWK) SAM system and the Tien Kung (Sky Bow) system.
  • It has also acquired the MADS (Modified Air Defense System), a variant of the PATRIOT system, to counter ballistic missile threats.
  • Short-range air defense is provided by the CHAPARRAL and SKYGUARD systems, with plans to acquire the STINGER/AVENGER system.

• Missile Defense:

  • Taiwan's missile defense systems are limited and unable to fully counter the PRC's growing missile arsenal.
  • The reliance on active missile defense systems is not sufficient to offset the PRC's numerical advantage in offensive missiles.

IV. Conclusion

• The report concludes that the PRC is capable of implementing a naval blockade, establishing air superiority, and conducting an amphibious invasion of Taiwan by 2005.
• Taiwan's military is focused on maintaining technological and tactical advantages in air and naval defense to deter such actions.
• The PRC's military modernization is primarily aimed at asymmetric warfare capabilities, while Taiwan continues to invest in advanced systems to counter these threats.