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Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis: Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the RAND Corporation in 2017, analyzes the vulnerabilities of European countries, particularly NATO and EU members, to Russian military, economic, and political pressures following the annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of eastern Ukraine. It outlines the potential forms of Russian influence and the implications for European security, while also highlighting the measures taken by Western allies to counter these threats.

Main Points

1. Military Vulnerabilities

• Russian Actions: The annexation of Crimea and the conflict in eastern Ukraine have heightened insecurity in Eastern Europe, especially in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), due to their proximity to Russia and the significant military imbalance.
• Russian Military Capabilities: Russia has conducted frequent military exercises, including a major snap exercise in March 2015 with up to 38,000 troops, and has increased border, airspace, and territorial water violations.
• NATO Response: NATO has opted for a "persistent" presence with rotational forces rather than permanent troop deployment. In 2016, a decision was made to deploy four multinational battalions in the Baltics and Poland.
• Risk of Conflict: While a full-scale invasion is unlikely due to NATO's conventional superiority, the threat of Russian military action remains. A nuclear threat could complicate NATO's response.
• Russian Nuclear Doctrine: Russia reserves the use of nuclear weapons for existential threats, though there are concerns that its definition of such threats may be broader than that of Western states.

2. Trade and Investment Vulnerabilities

• EU Imports from Russia: Only a small portion of the EU's non-energy imports come from Russia, and most needs can be met by other suppliers.
• Impact of Countersanctions: Countries like Lithuania, Finland, Estonia, Poland, and Norway have been disproportionately affected by Russian countersanctions on agricultural products, but they have shown resilience.
• Sanctions Consensus: Despite pressure from some allies, the EU has maintained sanctions on Russia, with a decision in January 2016 to keep them in place until June 2016.
• Economic Impact on EU: While Russia's economic slowdown has affected non-agricultural exports, the impact on the broader EU economy has been limited.

3. Energy Vulnerabilities

• Oil Supplies: Russia is the largest supplier of crude oil and refined products to the EU, but it is difficult to cut off supplies due to global market dynamics and capacity constraints.
• Natural Gas: Europe is more vulnerable to a natural gas cutoff, especially for smaller economies in northeastern and Central Europe. However, increased LNG imports, alternative fuels, and demand management can help mitigate this risk.
• Russian Leverage: Russia could theoretically cut off energy supplies to the Baltic states, but doing so would be costly and may not be in its interest.
• EU Mitigation Measures: The EU is developing gas terminals and cooperative measures to reduce dependency on Russian gas.

4. Political Vulnerabilities

• Domestic Instability: Russia may attempt to exploit political instability in countries with Russian-speaking minorities, such as Estonia and Latvia.
• Populist and Extremist Parties: Some European right-wing parties, like France's National Front, have received Russian support, which could influence political debates and policies.
• European Unity: There is a risk of internal division within the EU and NATO, as some countries (e.g., Italy, Spain, Greece) advocate for lifting sanctions, while others (e.g., Baltic states, Poland) support a strong response.
• Germany's Role: Germany's position is crucial in maintaining European unity. Its economic and security interests may lead to a more balanced approach.

Key Information

• Authoring Team: F. Stephen Larrabee, Stephanie Pezard, Andrew Radin, Nathan Chandler, Keith Crane, Thomas S. Szayna.
• Funding: Sponsored by the U.S. Army's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Office.
• Publication Date: 2017.
• Purpose: To examine the vulnerabilities of European states to Russian influence and to suggest possible Western policy responses.
• Focus Countries: Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Poland, and others in Central and Eastern Europe.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while Russia poses a significant threat to European security, the full potential of NATO and the EU's capabilities may not always be utilized due to the need for consensus. The vulnerability of Europe to Russian actions is multifaceted, involving military, economic, and political dimensions. The challenge lies in maintaining unity and coordination among European states in response to Russian assertiveness, while also preparing for potential escalation, including nuclear threats. The report emphasizes the importance of continued monitoring and strategic planning to address these vulnerabilities effectively.