20160317-招商证券_香港_-2016_US_Election_Primer__What_is_ahead,_why_you_2016_US_Election_Primer__What_is_ahead,_why_you_22页_792kb

2016 US Presidential Election Summary

Core Content

The 2016 US presidential election is a pivotal event that will determine the leadership of the world's largest economy for the next four years. It follows eight years of Democratic leadership under President Barack Obama, who inherited a struggling economy post-2008 financial crisis. The election timeline includes key dates such as the primary elections, national conventions, and the general election on November 8th. After the election, the US will enter a two-month "lame duck" period before the new president is sworn in on January 20th, 2017.

Main Points and Key Information

Historical Context

• From the end of World War II to 2016, the US has had 37 years of Democratic presidencies and 36 of Republican presidencies.
• The S&P 500 has shown slightly better performance under Democratic presidents, with an average annual gain of 9.7% compared to 6.7% under Republican presidents.
• GDP growth has also been higher under Democratic presidencies, averaging 4.35% versus 2.54% under Republican ones.
• These trends are attributed to factors like positive oil shocks and technological advancements rather than direct policy influence.

Presidential Influence on Economy

• The president's ability to impact the economy is largely indirect due to the US system of checks and balances.
• Key powers include legislative influence, appointment of officials, budget preparation, and international relations.
• The president's influence is often overestimated, as economic performance is driven by broader global and economic trends.

Monetary Policy

• The Federal Reserve is politically independent and its policies are primarily driven by economic indicators like inflation, not party affiliation.
• Historical data shows the Fed has not been significantly affected by election cycles in terms of policy decisions.
• Janet Yellen, a Democrat-appointed Fed Chair, is expected to remain in office until at least 2018, meaning no immediate shift in monetary policy regardless of the election outcome.

Fiscal Policy

• The budget balance to GDP ratio has improved under Democratic presidents (Clinton and Obama) compared to Republican administrations.
• This suggests that modern Democratic fiscal policies are more fiscally responsible than the stereotype of heavy spending.
• Fiscal policies are subject to congressional checks and balances, which can limit the implementation of campaign promises.

US-China Relations

• China has become a major foreign policy issue in US elections, with candidates often using "China bashing" rhetoric.
• However, actual policy actions have been limited due to the economic interdependence between the two nations.
• In the 2016 cycle, Sino-US tensions may rise, but the likelihood of significant tangible policy changes is low.
• The RMB undervaluation issue has diminished, and regional tensions in the Asia-Pacific have eased, reducing the potential for aggressive actions.

Candidate Profiles

Political Spectrum

• Bernie Sanders: Perceived as the far-left candidate with strong socialist leanings.
• Hillary Clinton: Represents the "establishment" Democrat with moderate views.
• Donald Trump: A complex figure, appearing far-right on some issues (e.g., immigration) and more liberal on others (e.g., healthcare).
• Ted Cruz: The far-right Tea Party representative of the Republican Party.

Democratic Candidates

Republican Candidates

• The Republican field was considered relatively weak in 2016, with Donald Trump emerging as a prominent candidate.
• Trump's policies are expected to have a more direct impact on markets, particularly due to his stance on industries and regulations.
• The overall impact of the election on markets and policy is anticipated to be significant, though the actual implementation of policies may be constrained by checks and balances.

Conclusion

The 2016 US election is expected to have a notable impact on both domestic and international markets, policies, and relations. While the president's influence on the economy is indirect, the election process itself can sway market sentiment. The Fed is expected to maintain its independent stance, and fiscal policy will be shaped by a combination of presidential goals and congressional limitations. The relationship with China is likely to remain a focal point, but the likelihood of significant policy changes is low. The candidates represent a wide range of political ideologies, with Clinton as the establishment candidate and Sanders as the progressive challenger, while Trump and Cruz offer more radical alternatives.