2025-05-26-Jefferies-博思艾伦汉密尔顿（BAH）_并非稳健的收入指引-有机增长前景与5-8_目标对比_25页_374kb

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) Equity Research Summary

Key Highlights

1. Revenue Outlook:

   • BAH initiated FY26 (March YE) revenue guidance of 0-4%, below the prior 7% consensus and its 5-8% target range.
   • Defense/Intel remains the primary revenue driver (51% of FY25 revenue), while Civil is undergoing a reset due to funding headwinds, with a projected 10% revenue decline in FY26.
   • Organic growth is expected to be flat in FY26E due to the absence of reserve adjustments; growth may resume in FY27 if funding improves.

2. Profitability & Margins:

   • FY26E adjusted EBITDA margins of ~11% are expected to remain stable, despite a mix shift away from higher-margin Civil work.
   • The mix headwind from Civil is partially offset by cost reductions and outcome-based contracting.

3. Financial Position & Valuation:

   • FCF: 2025 FCF is $911MM, rising to ~$853MM in FY26E (106% conversion rate).
   • Debt: Net leverage of ~2.4X at year-end, up due to share repurchases but below the 3-3.5X target.
   • Valuation: BAH trades at a blended PT of $120 (11% upside from current $107.79), with a 3% discount to peers on a FY26E P/E basis.

4. Risks & Catalysts:

   • Key Risks: Civil funding uncertainty, pricing pressure, and backlog conversion challenges.
   • Catalysts: Resumption of 5 impacted programs, Accelerated Thunderdome contract ramp, and material contract wins.

5. Analyst Rating:

   • Hold: Reflects cautious outlook with limited upside from current levels due to funding headwinds and reduced revenue growth.
   • Discrete Factors: Reduced EPS guidance and lower FY26-27E EPS expectations due to Civil declines.

Attachments:

• Exhibit Notes on Civil Impact, Backlog Growth, and Cost Management.
• Relative Valuation Table (FY26E).