> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 从银价波动看“变乱交织、动荡加剧” 近日，银价在短时间内出现显著波动，涨跌节奏频繁切换，单一因素对价格走势的解释力明显下降。银价的表现并非孤立现象。从价格运行方式看，部分大宗商品在价格水平上出现阶段性突破，但趋势延续性并未随之增强。价格调整更为频繁，运行呈现出短期修正加快、均衡确认周期拉长的特征，反映市场仍处于对长期结构不断校准的过程中。大宗商品价格由此刻画出旧均衡逐步松动、新均衡尚未稳固的过渡状态。正是在这一现实背景下，“变乱交织、动荡加剧”成为“十五五”规划建议中对外部环境的重要判断。大宗商品价格所呈现的高频波动提供了理解这一表述的微观切口。变化在多个层面持续发生，方向难以集中释放，既有秩序仍在发挥作用，同时不断受到新因素的重塑。价格中枢的抬升并未带来趋势稳定性的同步增强，单一逻辑主导行情的时间明显缩短，风险更多体现在对趋势延续性的高估。在趋势尚未固化之前，大宗商品价格更可能通过反复修正完成定价。通过大宗商品价格变化，可以更直观地理解“十五五”规划建议中对世界格局变化的判断，也为在动荡环境中把握风险与节奏提供了现实参照。 大宗商品价格的高频波动反映了多重结构变化同步发生。自2016年以来，主要大宗商品价格指数的波动率在关键阶段呈现出明显的同步抬升特征，尤其是在2020年和2022年前后，不同指数虽在振幅上存在差异，但波动上行的时间节点高度一致。这表明，当前大宗商品市场最突出的特征是多类商品在不同逻辑牵引下同时进入高不确定性状态。能源、工业金属以及以金银为代表的贵金属价格运行节奏各异，却在同一时间段内呈现出单一宏观解释框架支撑不足的共性。 首先，产业结构变化是这一现象的重要背景。全球制造业体系正在经历重组，新一轮能源转型、数字化扩展与基础设施更新，使部分工业原材料需求保持韧性。与此同时，与传统投资和房地产相关的需求进入调整阶段，需求端的结构性分化逐步显现。例如，银价在这一过程中往往同时反映新能源相关需求与传统工业需求的变化，其价格波动更容易呈现出多重终端需求叠加的特征，难以沿着单一产业周期运行。其次，成本体系的变化同样深刻影响定价逻辑。能源转型背景下，传统能源供给弹性下降，新型能源尚未完全形成稳定替代，能源价格对地缘、投资与政策预期高度敏感。从整体波动特征看，能源相关冲击并未只体现在能源品种本身，而是通过成本传导机制影响到更广泛的大宗商品板块。能源成本的波动通过产业链向金属、化工等领域扩散，放大了整体商品体系的价格弹性。银作为能源与制造环节的重要中间投入，其价格对这一传导过程的反应尤为明显。最后，在需求与成本之外，库存行为与金融参与程度的提升，使价格对短期信息更加敏感。当真实供需变化与预期调整在同一阶段内叠加时，价格往往通过更频繁的调整来寻找阶段性均衡。波动率中枢抬升，正反映了这一过程中价格调整频率的上升。这种运行方式并非个别品种的特殊现象，而是多重结构变化同步发生所带来的定价复杂化。 2026年1月14日 程实，博士 (852) 2206 8049 shi.cheng@icbc.com.cn 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com # 相关研究： 1/7/2026：《价值链攀升的中国坐标——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之二》 1/6/2026：《人工智能时代的中国比较优势》 1/5/2026：《如何充分挖掘经济潜能？——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之一》 12/30/2025：《纵横捭阖：全球价值链重构与中国产业体系突破——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之一》 12/23/2025：《中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向》 12/16/2025：《每一代人都有自己的Labubu——从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局》 12/12/2025：《格物致知，成势在人——投资于物和投资于人的时代逻辑》 12/11/2025：《利率下行，风险上行——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评》 12/5/2025：《人工智能浪潮中的真实与泡影》 11/24/2025：《在临界中博弈路径——2026年全球大类资产展望》 11/21/2025：《在交汇中重塑平衡——2026年香港经济展望》 11/20/2025：《在变化中破局开新——2026年中国经济展望》 11/17/2025：《在混沌中构建秩序——2026年全球经济展望》 10/30/2025：《加速降息进行时——2025年10月美联储议息会议点评》 10/22/2025：《从安倍经济学到早苗经济学》 10/14/2025：《创新的力量——2025年诺贝尔经济学奖点评》 图1：全球主要大宗商品价格指数波动率对比 数据来源：Bloomberg、工银国际计算（注：波动率为基于对数收益率计算的滚动年化标准差。） 供需错位与金融参与提升了大宗商品定价的阶段性跳跃特征。供给约束、需求分化与金融行为叠加，使大宗商品价格更容易呈现出阶段性跳跃。从铜价与库存关系的图示可以看到，库存压力与价格变动之间的相关性在较长时间内围绕零轴上下波动，正负方向频繁切换，显示单一供需信号对价格的解释力并不稳定。 供给端的变化是商品市场波动的重要推手。过去十余年，大宗商品领域资本开支整体偏弱，资源开发周期拉长，供给弹性明显下降。在这一背景下，来自地缘、气候、政策层面的扰动，往往会对短期供给预期产生放大效应。对于以铜为代表的工业金属而言，供给调整的滞后性更容易通过库存变化在短期内集中显现，并对价格形成阶段性扰动。然而，需求端的变化则更加复杂。一方面，新兴产业与基础设施投资对工业金属形成中长期支撑，抬升需求下限。另一方面，传统制造业周期波动加大，使需求增长的稳定性下降。这种需求结构的分化，使市场难以形成对中长期均衡价格的统一判断。相关系数在不同区间内的反复切换，反映出价格在多重需求预期之间不断调整的过程。 金融参与的深化进一步改变了定价方式。例如，在铜等交易活跃、金融参与度较高的工业金属品种中，这一特征尤为突出。当市场预期发生变化时，库存信号往往不再形成单向约束，而是通过相关性快速反转的方式被重新定价，价格因此更倾向于通过跳跃式调整完成阶段性再平衡。在这一过程中，价格波动更多体现为市场在不同假设之间不断切换。供需错位提高了价格对边际变化的敏感性，金融参与的提升加快了这一敏感性的释放速度，库存与价格关系的阶段性不稳定，成为工业金属定价跳跃的重要表征。 图2：库存压力与铜价变动的滚动相关系数 数据来源：Bloomberg、工银国际计算（注：库存压力指标为库存日度变动的5日累计值，钢价变动以对数收益率衡量。相关系数为基于滚动窗口计算的动态相关，用以刻画库存因素在不同阶段与价格定价的相关关系。） 大宗商品的动荡刻画了旧均衡逐渐松动与新均衡尚未稳固的过渡状态。从更长周期看，尽管部分大宗商品价格已在价格水平上出现阶段性突破，但价格运行方式并未随之稳定。价格调整的频率明显上升，趋势延续性并未随着价格中枢抬升而系统性增强，反映出市场对长期结构的判断仍处于不断校准之中。银价在高位运行过程中频繁回撤与反复修正，集中呈现了价格水平抬升但运行方式尚未固化的特征。 这一状态与全球经济所处阶段高度一致。传统增长模式的边际效应下降，使得以往支撑商品价格稳定运行的需求假设逐步弱化。与此同时，新技术、新产业与新政策框架正在重塑需求与成本结构，但其影响尚未完全固化，价格需要通过更高频的调整来吸收新增信息。在这一过渡阶段，价格承担了信息整合与路径探索的功能。每一次波动，都是市场对未来结构的一次试探。动荡的加剧更多体现为调整频率的上升，价格通过不断修正来缩短信息滞后，在不确定环境中尝试寻找阶段性的稳定锚点。 图3a：银价趋势持续时间的时间演变 数据来源：Bloomberg、工银国际计算（注：趋势持续时间定义为价格连续同向变动的区间长度，并计算30日滚动均值。） 图3b：银价趋势持续时间的阶段性分布 数据来源：Bloomberg、工银国际计算（注：趋势持续时间定义为价格连续同向变动的区间长度，按每段趋势结束时记录一次。样本按2016-2019年、2020-2021年及2022年以来三个阶段划分。） 大宗商品的价格状态映射出宏观经济运行方式的阶段性变化。大宗商品的价格运行方式，为理解当下世界的“变乱交织、动荡加剧”提供了一个切入点。在较长一段时期内，宏观经济主要围绕增长、通胀与政策取向等少数核心变量运行，市场对周期位置和政策方向形成较强共识，价格更多围绕既有均衡作周期性调整，趋势判断相对集中。相应地，投资决策也更依赖对单一主线的把握。 当前大宗商品市场所呈现的状态显示，这一运行框架正在松动。产业结构调整、能源体系转型以及地缘与政策环境复杂化，使不同部门与区域面临的约束条件持续分化，宏观经济呈现出多条路径并行推进的特征。单一逻辑对价格的主导能力下降，价格在不同假设之间切换更加频繁，趋势稳定性随之减弱。在这一环境下，宏观均衡的形成更加依赖动态协调。多重因素需要在更短时间内被同时纳入定价，大宗商品价格的高频波动正是这一过程在微观层面的体现。价格通过不断调整承担起信息整合与路径试探的功能，稳定预期的形成周期随之拉长，投资风险的重心逐步转向对趋势延续性的判断。由此看，“变乱交织、动荡加剧”可以在大宗商品价格中被持续观察到。在趋势尚未固化之前，大宗商品价格更可能通过反复修正完成定价，顺应这一运行方式，或将有助于在动荡环境中降低误判概率，提高对波动的利用效率。 # 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