2004年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_Policies_in_South_Asia___An_Overview_Volume_2_An_Overview_186页_14mb

报告摘要

Summary of Trade Policies in South Asia: An Overview

Core Content

This report provides an overview of trade policies in South Asia, focusing on the trade regimes of seven countries: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Maldives. It analyzes the historical evolution, current status, and implications of trade policies on economic growth, poverty reduction, and regional integration. The report also highlights the role of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), tariffs, and other trade instruments in shaping the economic landscape of the region.

Main Points

1. Historical Trade Policies

Inward-looking policies: South Asian countries historically had inward-looking trade policies, protecting domestic industries through import substitution strategies, high tariffs, and other restrictive measures.
Exceptions: Sri Lanka was an exception, beginning deep liberalization in the late 1970s, which led to significant economic benefits.
Shift in the 1990s: Trade liberalization began in the 1990s, with the introduction of reforms in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal. However, the pace of reform varied significantly among the countries.

2. Impact on Growth and Poverty Reduction

Positive correlation: Trade openness has been shown to correlate with higher economic growth and poverty reduction, as supported by global empirical studies.
India’s progress: India experienced a dramatic reduction in poverty incidence from 51% in 1977–78 to 27% in 1999–2000, aligning with the hypothesis that growth drives poverty reduction.
Bangladesh’s reduction: Bangladesh also saw a significant drop in poverty, from 45% in 1991 to 34% in 2000.
Sri Lanka’s setbacks: Sri Lanka faced challenges due to ethnic conflict, which slowed its economic progress during the 1990s.

3. Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs)

Widespread: NTBs were prevalent in South Asia, particularly in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal.
Impact: These barriers included import controls, export restrictions, and other regulatory measures that hindered trade and economic integration.

4. Tariffs and Protection

Tariff levels: Tariff levels in South Asia were high compared to global standards, especially in India and Bangladesh.
Agricultural tariffs: Agricultural tariffs remained high, even as industrial tariffs were reduced, leading to continued protection of domestic agriculture.
Anti-dumping measures: Anti-dumping policies became more active, especially in India, affecting trade dynamics.
Protection instruments: India and Bangladesh remained among the most protected economies, with India’s unweighted average agricultural tariff in 2004 being higher than that of most other developing countries.

5. Export Policies

Import substitution period: Early export policies were heavily focused on import substitution, which limited export growth.
Liberalization phase: With the introduction of trade liberalization, export policies became more open, although some restrictions remained.
Current policies: Export policies now include mechanisms such as Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG), Export Processing Zones (EPZ), and Export Only Units (EOUs) to boost exports.

6. Regional Trade and Arrangements

Intra-regional trade: Intra-regional trade in South Asia was historically low, around 4% by 1974, but increased slightly to 4.9% by 1998.
SAPTA and SAFTA: The South Asia Preferential Trading Agreement (SAPTA) and the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) were important regional initiatives, though progress was slow.
India’s role: India played a dominant role in regional trade, with significant trade volumes and influence over other South Asian countries.
Informal trade: Informal trade, which is not officially recorded, could be as high as half of recorded trade, though it has complex economic effects, including both benefits and revenue losses.

Key Information

Currency equivalent: US $1.00 = Tk. 60.8 (June 2004)
Fiscal year: July 1 – June 30
Acronyms and abbreviations: A range of trade-related terms and acronyms are defined, including GATT, WTO, AIT, TBT, SPS, and others.
Trade intensity: Trade intensity is modified by geographical proximity, with limited benefits from intra-regional trade compared to trade with the rest of the world (ROW).
Economic performance: South Asian countries, especially India and Bangladesh, have seen significant improvements in economic growth and poverty reduction due to trade reforms, though agricultural protection remains a key issue.

Conclusion

Ongoing reforms: Despite some progress, trade policy reforms in South Asia remain incomplete, with India and Bangladesh still among the most protected economies.
Need for further liberalization: There is a need for further trade liberalization, particularly in the agricultural sector, to align with global trends and improve economic integration.
Regional cooperation: Regional trade agreements and cooperation are important for enhancing trade within the subcontinent, though challenges remain in implementation and enforcement.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1.1: Average Tariffs in South Asia
Figure 1.2: South Asia's Poor (Headcount ratio 2000)
Figure 1.3: South Asia Growth Performance: Per Capita Growth (1975–85 and 1985–2000)
Figure 1.4: India REER
Figure 1.5: Pakistan Exchange Rate Indices
Figure 1.6: Bangladesh RER
Figure 1.7: Sri Lanka Exchange Rate Indices
Figure 1.8: Nepal Exchange Rate Indices
Figure 1.9: Bhutan-India RER
Figure 1.10: Maldives-India Real Exchange Rate
Table 2.2: Evolution of Import Restrictions
Table 3.1: Estimated Unweighted Averages of MFN Customs Duties
Table 3.2: Structure of Tariffs in South Asia
Table 3.3: Ranking of Average Tariffs in South Asia
Table 3.4: Average Tariffs in South Asia
Table 3.5: India: Distribution of Tariff Lines
Table 3.6: Pakistan: Customs duties
Table 3.7: Pakistan: Duration of 6-digit tariff lines
Table 3.8: Bangladesh: Unweighted Average Protective Import Duty
Table 3.9: Bangladesh: Summary Indicators of MFN Tariffs (1992–2005)
Table 3.10: Bangladesh: Averages of Customs duties and Para-tariff Components
Table 3.11: Bangladesh: Distribution of Tariff
Table 3.12: Bangladesh: Distribution According to Customs Duty
Table 3.13: Bangladesh: Some Examples of the Extra Protection
Table 3.14: Bangladesh: Indicators of Tariff
Table 3.15: Bangladesh Tariffs 2003/04: Some example
Table 3.16: Sri Lanka: Increase in Unweighted Average Protective Import Taxes
Table 3.17: Comparative Import Duty Collection Rates (2000/01)
Table 3.18: India 1980–2002: Import Duties and Indirect Taxes on Imports
Table 3.19: India 1981–2001: Revenue from Taxes as Percentage of GDP
Table 3.20: Pakistan 1990/91–2001/02: Import Tax Collection Rates and Government Revenue
Table 3.21: Bangladesh: Protective Import Tax Collection rates
Table 3.22: Bangladesh: Protective Import Taxes and Government Revenue
Table 3.23: Sri Lanka: Import Duties and Government Revenue
Table 3.24: Nepal: Import Duties and Government Revenue
Table 3.25: Comparative Collection Rates

Authors and Contributors

Vice President: Praful C. Patel, SARVP
Regional Director: Alastair J. McKechnie, SAC01
Sector Director: Sadiq Ahmed, SASPR
Sector Manager: Ijaz Nabi and Kapil Kapoor, SASPR
Task Manager: Zaidi Sattar, SASPR and Garry Pursell (Consultant, SASPR)
Contributors: Ziaul Ahsan (Bangladesh), Rangarajan Krishnamani (SASPR), and various researchers and officials from the region.

Acknowledgments

The report was prepared by Garry Pursell and Zaidi Sattar.
Financial support from the UK’s DFID for regional workshops is acknowledged.
Contributions from government officials, businessmen, academics, and researchers across South Asian countries are appreciated.

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