20180802-大华银行-FX_Insights_13页_1mb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of foreign exchange (FX) market trends and central bank activity as of August 2, 2018. It highlights the implications of recent economic data, central bank statements, and market reactions on various currency pairs, with a focus on the USD and its relationship with other major currencies. The report is issued by UOB Group and authored by Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia.

Main Points

FOMC Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the Fed Funds Target Rate at 1.75–2.00%, as expected.
The statement suggested a rising strong economy, with household spending growing strongly, indicating the potential for a third rate hike in September.
The USD remained firm, showing no significant concerns over the US-China trade conflict, and the DXY Index stayed around 94.50.

Global Equity and Treasury Market Reactions

US and European equities closed lower due to concerns over Trump's plan to increase tariffs on Chinese imports.
NASDAQ showed a slight gain (0.46%) due to Apple's strong 2Q results, while DJIA and S&P 500 had moderate losses.
US Treasuries yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield exceeding 3% for the first time since June, driven by strong private payrolls and concerns over increased Treasury issuances.

Major Currency Pairs Overview

USD/SGD

Traded in a tight range of 1.3609–1.3626.
The USD/SGD pair is expected to trade sideways, likely within 1.3600–1.3640.
The support level has shifted from 1.3530 to 1.3550, and a break of 1.3670 would signal a potential end to the mild downward pressure.

EUR/USD

Traded within 1.1654–1.1658, showing weaker momentum.
The immediate support is at 1.1620, with resistance at 1.1710.
The EUR/USD pair is expected to trade sideways, likely within 1.1620–1.1790.

GBP/USD

Traded sideways around 1.3126.
The support level is at 1.3095, with resistance at 1.3150.
The GBP/USD pair is expected to trade sideways, likely within 1.3010–1.3220.

AUD/USD

Traded within 0.7390–0.7429.
The support is at 0.7380, and the resistance is at 0.7445.
The AUD/USD pair is expected to trade sideways within 0.9975–1.0155.

NZD/USD

Traded within 0.6782–0.6820.
The support is at 0.6770, and the resistance is at 0.6815.
The NZD/USD pair is expected to trade sideways within 0.6740–0.6880.

USD/JPY

Traded within 111.38–111.71.
The support is at 111.30, and the resistance is at 112.05.
The USD/JPY pair is expected to trade sideways within 110.60–112.50.

EUR/SGD

Traded within 1.5869–1.5872.
The support is at 1.5840, and the resistance is at 1.5930.
The EUR/SGD pair is expected to trade sideways within 1.5780–1.6030.

GBP/SGD

Traded within 1.7833–1.7889.
The support is at 1.7830, and the resistance is at 1.7930.
The GBP/SGD pair is expected to trade sideways within 1.7770–1.8000.

AUD/SGD

Traded within 1.0060–1.0108.
The support is at 1.0050, and the resistance is at 1.0130.
The AUD/SGD pair is expected to trade sideways within 0.9975–1.0155.

JPY/SGD

Traded within 1.2141–1.2185.
The support is at 1.2160, and the resistance is at 1.2240.
The JPY/SGD pair is expected to trade sideways within 1.2100–1.2350.

Key Information

FX Outlook for 2018–2019

Currency Pair	3Q18	4Q18	1Q19	2Q19
EUR/USD	1.20	1.21	1.22	1.23
GBP/USD	1.33	1.32	1.31	1.30
AUD/USD	0.77	0.78	0.79	0.80
NZD/USD	0.71	0.71	0.72	0.73
USD/JPY	110	111	112	113
USD/SGD	1.38	1.39	1.40	1.41
USD/MYR	4.07	4.08	4.10	4.12
USD/THB	33.60	33.80	34.00	34.30
USD/CNY	6.85	6.95	7.00	7.10
USD/IDR	14,600	14,700	14,800	14,900
USD/PHP	53.80	54.20	54.80	55.50
USD/INR	69.50	70.00	70.50	70.80
USD/TWD	31.00	31.30	31.60	32.00
USD/HKD	7.84	7.84	7.84	7.84
USD/KRW	1,150	1,160	1,170	1,180
USD/US (Rates)	2.25%	2.50%	2.75%	3.00%

Central Bank Meetings in 2018

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	31	-	21*	-	02	13*	-	01	26*	-	08	19*
European Central Bank (ECB)	25	-	08	26	-	14	26	-	13	25	-	13
Bank of England (BOE)	-	08#	22	-	10#	21	-	02#	14	01#	20	-
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	-	06	06	03	01	05	03	07	04	02	06	04
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	-	08^	22	-	10^	28	-	09^	27	08^	-	-
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	23**	-	09	27**	-	15	31**	-	19	31**	-	20**
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	tba	-	-
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)	25	-	07	-	10	-	11	-	05	-	08	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	14	28	-	16	20	-	08	19	-	14	19
Bank Indonesia (BI)	18	15	22	19	17	29	19	16	27	23	15	20
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)	-	08	22	-	10	20	-	09	27	-	15	13
Bank of Korea (BOK)	18	27	-	12	24	-	12	31	-	18	30	-
Taiwan Central Bank (CBC)	-	-	22	-	-	21	-	-	27	-	-	20
Reserve Bank of India (RBI)	-	07	-	-	-	06	-	01	-	-	-	-

*Meetings associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference.
**Meetings associated with release of Outlook Report.
^Meetings associated with release of Monetary Policy Statement.
#Meetings associated with release of Inflation Report.

Summary of Key Trends

USD remains strong and firm, with no clear direction in the short term, trading sideways within 1.3600–1.3640.
EUR and GBP show mild downward pressure, but resistance levels are still intact, suggesting range-bound trading.
AUD and NZD are trading in a consolidation phase, with no clear breakout expected.
JPY is weak, with limited upside and potential for further weakness.
Asia currencies (THB, INR, CNY, etc.) showed mixed results, with THB and INR gaining, while CNY and KRW remained flat.
Central Bank activity remains ongoing, with no major rate changes expected in the near future, though key meetings are listed for September and beyond.

Conclusion

The report indicates a neutral to sideways trend for most major currency pairs, with USD remaining firm and resilient against global economic uncertainty. The FOMC is on track for further rate hikes, while European and Asian currencies show mixed responses to trade developments and central bank policies. The FX market is expected to remain range-bound in the short to medium term, with limited directional movement anticipated.