> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # PDD Holdings (PDD US) Summary ## Core Content PDD Holdings (PDD US) reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a $12.0% year-over-year (YoY) revenue increase to RMB123.9 billion, aligning with Bloomberg's consensus estimates. This growth was primarily driven by a $5% beat in transaction services fees, attributed to strong performance in the Temu business, although this was partially offset by a $3% miss in online marketing services and other revenues due to weaker consumer sentiment. Operating profit (OP) rose $8.3% YoY to RMB27.7 billion, in line with expectations, while non-GAAP net income of RMB26.3 billion missed by $16% due to higher-than-expected income tax expenses. For the full year of 2025, revenue increased by $10% YoY, while non-GAAP net profit declined by $12% YoY, reflecting continued investment in the platform ecosystem. ## Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue Growth (YoY):** - 4Q25: 12.0% - FY25: 10.0% - FY26E: 16.1% - **Non-GAAP Net Profit Growth (YoY):** - 4Q25: -11.9% - FY25: -12.3% - FY26E: 16.1% - **Earnings Per Share (EPS):** - 4Q25 (Adjusted): RMB83.21 - FY26E (Adjusted): RMB83.21 - FY26E Consensus: RMB87.08 - **Valuation:** - Target Price (TP): US$161.70 (up 5% from previous US$154.30) - Current Price: US$102.61 - P/E Ratio (2026E): 8.6x - P/S Ratio (2026E): 1.0x - Non-GAAP P/E Ratio (2026E): 8.6x ## Segment Performance - **Transaction Services Fees:** Grew 19.2% YoY to RMB63.9 billion, $5% above consensus, driven by Temu's performance. - **Online Marketing Services and Others:** Increased 5.3% YoY to RMB60.0 billion, $3% below consensus, due to weaker consumer sentiment. - **Total Revenue:** RMB123.9 billion, inline with consensus. - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM):** Declined to 55.5% in 4Q25, 1.1ppts below consensus, attributed to Temu's lower margins. - **Operating Expenses:** Sales and marketing expenses increased 9.6% YoY to RMB34.4 billion, representing 27.7% of total revenue. Operating profit margin (OPM) was 22.4%, inline with expectations. ## Valuation Adjustments - **SOTP-based Target Price:** Increased to US$161.70 (previously US$154.30), reflecting a 5% increase. - **Valuation Breakdown (per ADS):** 1. **Main App (Duoduo):** US$95.0 based on 10x 2026E PE 2. **Duoduo Grocery:** US$2.0 based on 1.0x 2026 EPS 3. **Temu:** US$25.0 based on 1.0x 2026 EPS 4. **Net Cash:** US$39.6 based on 1.0x 2026 PS ## Analyst Recommendations - **Rating:** BUY - **Reasoning:** The company's earnings recovery is expected, supported by narrowing losses at Temu and strong core business growth. The risk-reward is considered attractive. ## Shareholding and Financials - **Shareholding Structure:** - Entities affiliated with Zheng Huang: 24.8% - Entities affiliated with Tencent: 13.8% - **Cash and Liquidity:** - Total cash, restricted cash, and ST investment: RMB496 billion - **Financial Ratios:** - Current Ratio (2026E): 3.0x - GPM (2026E): 57.1% - Operating Margin (2026E): 23.8% - Non-GAAP Net Margin (2026E): 25.0% ## Risks - Slower-than-expected global business expansion - Geopolitical issues affecting business development - Slower-than-expected margin expansion ## Summary Table | Metric | 4Q25 Actual | 4Q25 Consensus | FY25 Actual | FY26E Forecast | FY27E Forecast | FY28E Forecast | |-------------------------|-------------|----------------|-------------|----------------|----------------|----------------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 123,912 | 123,762 | 431,846 | 498,592 | 562,481 | 598,398 | | Non-GAAP Net Profit (RMB mn) | 26,295 | 31,210 | 107,301 | 124,575 | 144,348 | 148,418 | | YoY Growth (%) | 12.0% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 16.1% | 15.9% | 2.8% | | EPS (Adjusted) (RMB) | 83.21 | 87.08 | 72.38 | 83.21 | 95.47 | 97.20 | | P/E (2026E) | 8.6x | 8.6x | 10.0x | 8.6x | 7.5x | 7.3x | ## Conclusion PDD Holdings is showing signs of earnings recovery, driven by performance in the Temu business and solid growth in the core operations. Despite the current non-GAAP net profit decline due to ongoing investment, the company's strong cash position and revised target price suggest a positive outlook. The BUY rating is maintained, with the expectation of a $161.70 target price. The company's financial health and strategic direction are viewed as favorable, although risks related to global expansion and margin improvement remain.