2025-05-29-Jefferies-Salesforce.com（CRM）_需要代理_增长正在放缓_9页_264kb

Salesforce.com Equity Research Summary

Financial Performance and Guidance

• Salesforce beat EPS expectations with a 12.1% year-over-year growth in CRPO and raised FY26 revenue guidance by $450M (mid-point estimate), partially due to FX reversals, with core cloud businesses experiencing deceleration from 9% growth to 7% year-over-year.
• Rev growth slowed for Sales Cloud and Service Cloud to 7%, attributed to tougher comp cycles and softer expiration bases, despite a strong F1Q top-line performance of 8.5% vs. Street's 7.4%.
• Agentforce contributed $100M ARR but remains a small part of the business; 30% of Agentforce bookings and 50% of Data Cloud bookings come from existing customers increasing consumption.
• FX adjustment accounted for $400M of the guidance raise, highlighting reliance on currency impacts.

Growth Catalysts and Risks

• Agentforce momentum continues, with 8k paid deals closed, up from 3k in F4Q. CRM is shifting support staff to Data & AI and hiring more sales personnel to focus on this opportunity.
• Deceleration in core products poses ongoing risks; macroeconomic pressures and topline challenges could lead to downward guidance revisions.
• Valuation is attractive at 17x '26E EV/FCF, a 50% discount to large-cap peers like Adobe, Microsoft, and Oracle, supporting the Buy recommendation.

Analyst Recommendation

• Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of $375 ($276.03 current price, +36% upside).
• Long-term outperformance hinges on achieving higher growth acceleration (to near 18% long-term target) and margin expansion (non-GAAP op margin near 30% by 2026).
• Upside scenario includes higher ARCA growth driving sustained billings, while downside risks involve significant topline deceleration to high single digits.

Key Concerns

• Macroeconomic risks could adversely affect topline growth; conservative DCF approach recommended.
• Security risks from data storage and systemic failures are ongoing, though CRM emphasizes protections.
• Sustainability efforts include workforce diversity targets and emissions reduction goals; management is actively pursuing these.

Long-Term Outlook

• Revenue expected to grow at a high-single-digit CAGR through 2027, with AI enabling new SKUs.
• Non-GAAP margin expansion >200 bps in 2025-2026, supported by strategic investments, including the Infor acquisition, which enhances data access and Agentforce potential.
• Catalysts include accretive acquisitions, Data Cloud traction, and cost-cutting initiatives to drive margins.