devinit-新冠疫情爆发前和爆发期间对肯尼亚的援助流量分析（英）-2021-18页_228kb

Summary of Aid Flows to Kenya Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of aid flows to Kenya from 2018 to 2020, focusing on the shift from grants to loans, sectoral allocations, and the role of different donor types. The data is sourced from the International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI), which provides near real-time disbursement information.

Key Findings

• Growth in IFI disbursements: Aid from International Financial Institutions (IFIs) increased substantially between 2018 and 2020, while bilateral and multilateral aid showed inconsistent trends.
• Shift to aid loans: Kenya's aid landscape is increasingly dominated by aid loans rather than grants, with bilateral grants declining and IFI loans rising.
• Sectoral focus:
  • IFIs prioritized governance and security, agriculture and food security, and education.
  • Bilateral donors focused on health, with it being the largest sector in terms of volume.
  • Multilateral donors mirrored the sectoral focus of bilateral donors, emphasizing health, humanitarian aid, and agriculture and food security.
• Health sector volatility: Despite being the primary sector for ODA grants, health allocations from bilateral donors fell by 31.1% between 2019 and 2020.
• Debt sustainability concerns: The increase in aid loans has raised concerns about Kenya's debt sustainability, as debt service payments are already larger than sectoral budgets.

Disbursements by Donor Type

• IFIs:
  • The World Bank was the main contributor of ODA from IFIs.
  • IFI disbursements grew consistently between 2018 and 2020.
• Multilateral institutions:
  • Contributions were volatile, with significant support from the World Food Programme, the Global Fund, and UNICEF.
• Bilateral donors:
  • Five of the 15 bilateral donors increased contributions between 2018 and 2019, but only three (European Commission, Denmark, and Sweden) increased between 2019 and 2020.
  • The US and UK, the top bilateral contributors, saw a decline in 2020.

Sector Focus of Aid Disbursements (2018–2020)

International Financial Institutions

• Governance and security: Consistently increased, with the highest share in 2018 (36.5%) and second highest in 2019 (22.4%).
• Health and humanitarian: Smaller shares compared to governance and security, but saw notable increases in 2020.
• Education: Experienced a drop in 2019 (45.6% decrease), but generally increased between 2018 and 2020.
• Banking and business: Witnessed the largest percentage increase (1,355.7%) between 2019 and 2020, driven by the World Bank.

Multilateral Donors

• Health: The only sector with consistent growth across the three years, increasing by 4.7% in 2019 and 1.1% in 2020.
• Humanitarian: Declined by 10.6% in 2019, then increased by 18.9% in 2020.
• Agriculture and food security: Increased by 14.3% in 2019, but dropped by 28.2% in 2020.
• Water and sanitation: Saw significant increases (56.8% in 2019 and 48.1% in 2020), though in volume terms, these were relatively small.
• Industry and trade: Increased by 1,306.7% in 2019, but dropped by 78.8% in 2020.

Bilateral Donors

• Health: Largest sector in volume terms, but declined by 31.1% between 2019 and 2020.
• Humanitarian: Second largest sector in 2018 and 2020, but declined by 34.2% between 2018 and 2019.
• Agriculture and food security: Second largest sector in 2019, receiving 14.0% of bilateral aid.
• Governance and security: Declined by 12.2% in 2019 and 16.0% in 2020.

Conclusion

• The trend shows a shift from grants to loans, with IFIs increasing their ODA contributions while bilateral and multilateral aid remains inconsistent.
• Health sector funding from bilateral donors decreased significantly during the pandemic, which is a concern as health was a primary focus of ODA grants.
• The increasing reliance on aid loans may threaten Kenya's debt sustainability and limit the resources available for budgeting.

Recommendations

• Kenya should manage its aid more effectively, balancing the need for short-term financial support with long-term debt sustainability.
• There is a need for greater transparency and consistency in aid publishing, especially from bilateral donors, to ensure accurate data for policy-making.

Notes

• The data used is based on IATI disbursements published up to March 2021.
• The analysis excludes OECD DAC data due to its unavailability at the country and sector level until January 2022.
• The findings are based on data from a consistent set of donors, with some limitations due to poor IATI publishing by certain donors.

Appendix: Donors and Institutions

Bilateral Donors

• Australian Aid
• Belgium – DGD
• Canada – DFATD
• Denmark – Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• European Commission (EC) – EuropeAid, FPI, ECHO
• Finland – Ministry for Foreign Affairs
• Germany – Federal Foreign Office
• Netherlands – RvO, DGIS
• Norway – Norad
• Sweden – Sida
• Switzerland – SDC
• UK – British Council, BEIS, DHSC, FCDO

International Financial Institutions (IFIs)

• African Development Bank Group (AfDB)
• World Bank

Multilateral Institutions

• Global Fund
• International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
• United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
• UNOCHA – CERF
• UNICEF
• United Nations World Food Programme (WFP)