2021-08-19-牛津经济研究院-MENA_Coronavirus_tracker_for_the_GCC_–_August_update_5页_267kb

Summary of MENA Weekly Economic Briefing - August 2021: Coronavirus Tracker for GCC

Delta Variant Concerns: The Delta variant is spreading widely in the Middle East, raising alarms due to its higher transmissibility and suspected reduced effectiveness against vaccines. This includes significant cases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE, potentially hindering the region's economic recovery efforts.

Easing Restrictions: Despite Delta's prevalence, new COVID-19 cases are declining, allowing governments to relax lockdown measures. For example, the UAE is now permitting hotels to operate at full capacity and malls at 80%, while Saudi Arabia has reopened borders for vaccinated travelers and allowed Umrah pilgrimages.

Expo 2020 Uncertainty: The delayed Expo 2020 in Dubai, with just over a month to go, faces risks from the Delta variant, which could reduce early visitor numbers. Positives include the UAE's removal from the UK red list and European countries accepting vaccinated tourists, but global case counts and prolonged restrictions in Asia-Pacific countries may discourage some travelers, potentially affecting the UAE economy in Q4 2021.

Economic Projections: Forecasts indicate rebounding growth in many MENA countries (e.g., UAE aiming for 2-5% GDP growth in 2021-2022), though inflation looms large. Upcoming events like the OPEC+ meeting on September 1st will influence regional stability and oil prices.

Additional Highlights: The briefing notes continued recovery in GCC countries, supported by rising hotel occupancy and equity prices, but cautions about climate change and fiscal challenges in nations like Kuwait and Oman.