> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Global Debt Report 2026 Summary ## Core Content The **Global Debt Report 2026** provides an in-depth analysis of global sovereign and corporate debt markets, highlighting their resilience despite growing pressures. The report emphasizes the structural changes occurring in these markets, particularly due to evolving investor behavior, macroeconomic conditions, and the increasing role of debt in financing AI expansion and public spending. --- ## Main Points - **Global Debt Market Resilience**: Despite rising borrowing levels and macroeconomic uncertainties, global debt markets have shown resilience in 2025. Volatility has remained low, and corporate credit spreads have reached historic lows. - **Borrowing Levels and Trends**: - Governments and corporations are expected to borrow **USD 29 trillion in 2026**, a **17% increase** from 2024. - Central government borrowing in OECD countries reached **USD 17 trillion in 2025**, up from **USD 12 trillion in 2022**. - Outstanding sovereign bond debt hit a record **USD 61 trillion**, up from **USD 55 trillion in 2024**. - Emerging market debt reached **USD 12.1 trillion**, the highest on record. - **Refinancing Requirements**: - Sovereign refinancing needs in the OECD hit **USD 13.5 trillion in 2025**, nearly **80%** of total gross borrowing. - These requirements are expected to increase by **USD 1 trillion in 2026**. - Net borrowing requirements in 2025 were stable at **USD 3.5 trillion**, but still **substantially above pre-pandemic levels**. - **Corporate Borrowing**: - Corporate borrowing in 2025 reached **USD 13.7 trillion**, the highest in real terms. - This includes **USD 6.8 trillion in corporate bonds** and **USD 7 trillion in syndicated loans**. - Outstanding corporate debt reached **USD 59.5 trillion**, with **USD 36.4 trillion in bonds** and **USD 23.1 trillion in syndicated loans**. - Corporate debt is expected to continue rising due to the massive capital needs of AI expansion. - **Interest Rates and Yields**: - Post-2022 interest rate increases have led to **higher sovereign and corporate bond yields**, especially at longer maturities. - In OECD countries, **30-year yields** reached a median of **4.1%** in 2025, supported by elevated real yields. - The **average 10-year term premium** in the OECD reached **0.84%**, the highest in over a decade. - **Investor Base Changes**: - The investor base has become more **price-sensitive**, with a shift from traditional long-term buyers to shorter-term investors. - Central banks have reduced their bond holdings, contributing to this shift. - These changes bring **increased liquidity** but also **greater market sensitivity to shocks**. - Investor behavior has made it difficult to distinguish between **technical and fundamental factors** influencing credit spreads and yields. - **Market Dynamics and Risks**: - Governments and corporations are increasingly issuing debt with **shorter maturities** to mitigate rising interest costs, but this increases **refinancing risks**. - The report warns that the **current stability may be fragile**, as structural shifts and macroeconomic pressures could lead to sudden market strains. - The **USD 109 trillion** combined sovereign and corporate bond market is crucial for funding **AI investments and defense spending**. - **Sustainable Bonds**: - Sustainable bonds have become a **significant source of financing**. - In 2021–2025, sustainable bond issuance was **three times higher** than in 2016–2020. - In 2025, **USD 531 billion** in sustainable bonds were issued by companies, and **USD 486 billion** by the official sector. - A **6% decline** from the previous year was noted, but still **more than 50% higher** than in 2020. --- ## Key Information - **Report Focus**: The report covers **sovereign borrowing**, **corporate debt markets**, and the **investor base** for both sectors. - **Data Sources**: OECD datasets, surveys, and public/commercial market data are used to analyze trends. - **Key Contributors**: The report benefits from contributions by members of the **OECD Working Party on Debt Management (WPDM)** and other financial institutions. - **Methodology**: The report includes detailed methods and data sources in its annexes, emphasizing transparency and rigor. - **Policy Implications**: Policymakers are urged to safeguard the **resilience of debt markets**, as they are essential for **long-term investment and growth**. - **License and Citation**: The report is available under the **CC BY 4.0** license, with specific citation requirements for translations and adaptations. --- ## Conclusion The **Global Debt Report 2026** underscores the **resilience of global debt markets** despite rising pressures. However, it also highlights the **structural risks** posed by the evolving investor base, increasing borrowing levels, and the impact of higher interest rates. The report serves as a critical reference for policymakers, investors, and market participants to understand and manage these dynamics in the context of global economic transformation.