2006年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Fund39s_Medium_32页_442kb

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Income Outlook and Options Summary

I. Introduction

The IMF needs to generate a sustainable income to cover its operational expenses and build reserves to protect against financial risks. Currently, the Fund relies heavily on credit outstanding for income generation, with the margin on the rate of charge set annually on a cost-plus basis. This system, established in 1981 and reinforced by surcharges introduced in 1997, has enabled the Fund to build reserves up to around SDR 6 billion. However, recent credit outstanding levels have dropped significantly to SDR 20 billion, which is less than a third of its peak of SDR 70 billion. This decline indicates progress in global financial stability but also signals a drop in the Fund's income base.

The current low-credit environment challenges the sustainability of the existing income structure. The paper outlines a range of options to diversify the Fund's income sources and ensure financial resilience in the long term, including the establishment of an Investment Account, gold sales, margin adjustments, and other measures. It also highlights the need for a strategic shift from crisis resolution to crisis prevention.

II. Income Outlook Under Current Policies

Core Income Sources

• Rate of Charge Margin: The margin is set annually to cover expenses and meet the net income target. In FY06, it was 108 basis points, generating SDR 410 million in income.
• Implicit Return on Reserves: Reserves contribute to income through interest-free balances held with creditor members. In FY06, this amounted to SDR 210 million.
• Surcharge Income: This is used to offset the impact of administrative expenses and is not included in the net income target calculation. Surcharge income is expected to decline in the medium term due to reduced credit outstanding.
• Administrative Expenses: These are projected to increase from SDR 646 million in FY06 to SDR 735 million in FY09, under current policies.

Income Projections

Key Observations

• Under the current central scenario, credit outstanding is projected to decline to SDR 15 billion by FY07 and below SDR 8 billion by FY09.
• This would lead to a significant drop in income from the margin, which is the primary source of revenue.
• The net income shortfall under current policies is expected to reach SDR 496 million in FY09.
• The margin would need to be increased to about 360 basis points to cover the shortfall, which is not feasible or desirable due to market sensitivity and past practices.

III. Assessing Medium-Term Sustainability

Income Sources and Credit Levels

• The Fund's income is primarily derived from two sources: the margin on GRA lending and the implicit return on its precautionary balances (SCA-1 and reserves).
• Table 2 illustrates the relationship between precautionary balances and credit levels, showing that a larger credit base allows for higher income generation.

Key Findings

• The build-up of reserves has increased the Fund's resilience to credit shocks.
• If credit outstanding drops to SDR 10 billion, the Fund would need to significantly broaden its income base to maintain financial stability.
• A credit base of SDR 40 billion is required to sustain a budget of SDR 700–750 million, which is much higher than current projections.
• The recent sharp decline in credit outstanding is likely to continue, and the Fund must prepare for a low-credit environment.

IV. Broadening the Income Base

Options Considered

1. Establishing an Investment Account

   • The Fund's reserves, currently close to SDR 6 billion, could be invested to generate additional income.
   • A reasonable estimate of potential additional income from this source is about 50 basis points per annum, or SDR 30 million annually.
   • This would require a decision by an 85 percent majority of the voting power.

2. Gold Sales

   • Selling part of the Fund's gold holdings could generate additional investment income.
   • A gold sales program of about 11–12 million ounces (11% of total holdings) could bring the precautionary balance to SDR 10 billion.
   • This would significantly strengthen the Fund's ability to operate under various credit scenarios.
   • Careful design is needed to minimize market impact.

3. Increasing the Margin

   • The margin has increased steadily, currently at 108 basis points, implying a borrowing rate of around 4.5%.
   • Further increases would be costly and potentially counterproductive, as they could discourage borrowing and reduce the Fund's attractiveness.

4. Other Options

   • Reducing remuneration.
   • Introducing user fees.
   • Increasing third-party financing.
   • Selling part of the Fund's gold and investing the proceeds.

V. Next Steps and Issues for Discussion

• The Fund needs to implement measures to close the income gap in FY07, but these measures may not be sufficient for the medium term.
• Further work is required to explore alternative financing mechanisms and ensure the Fund has a sound financial basis without relying on sharp increases in lending.
• The next Strategic Review paper will highlight these medium-term issues and the need for follow-up action.

Conclusion

The IMF faces a significant challenge in maintaining its financial sustainability as credit outstanding continues to decline. A shift in focus from crisis resolution to prevention necessitates a broader and more diversified income base. Options such as an Investment Account and gold sales are being considered, but their implementation requires careful planning and member support. The Fund must also reassess its current income generation methods and explore long-term financial strategies to ensure its continued effectiveness in promoting global financial stability.