战略与国际研究中心-Atlantic-Outlook-Vol-2,-No-2_4页_719kb

ATLANTIC OUTLOOK Summary

Core Content

The Atlantic Outlook issue from March 2008 covers key developments in Russian-Western relations, European views on the U.S. presidential election, NATO's challenges in Afghanistan, and Ukraine's progress toward Euro-Atlantic integration. It also includes event updates and analysis from the CSIS Europe Program.

Main Views

1. Russian Foreign Policy Under Medvedev

• Policy Continuity: Despite the presidential election, the Russian leadership emphasizes policy stability, suggesting that Vladimir Putin will likely retain a dominant role in foreign affairs.
• Medvedev's Role: Although Medvedev has not yet shown strong foreign policy leadership, his potential to shift Russian attitudes toward the West may be tested at the G-8 summit in Japan (July 2008).
• Putin's Strategy: Putin's decision to become prime minister appears aimed at supporting Medvedev's authority and allowing him to take the lead in international relations.
• Peace Offensive: Putin may initiate a peace offensive in the near future, indicating a potential shift from his previous anti-Western rhetoric.
• Economic Integration: Russian leaders are aware that economic integration with Europe and the global economy is essential for their development goals.
• Security Concerns: The primary security threats to Russia are radical Islam and China's rise, not hostility toward the West.

2. European Views on the U.S. Presidential Election

• Obama's Popularity: European media and elites have widely supported Barack Obama, viewing him as a symbol of change and idealism.
• Conspiracy Theories: Some media outlets speculated that Obama's losses in New Hampshire and Nevada were part of a conspiracy to prevent a black president.
• Doubts About Obama's Commitment to Europe: Some European analysts, including the London Times and Die Welt, question whether Obama would prioritize European interests.
• Criticism of U.S. Democracy: The Guardian admits that American democracy may be evolving, and European critics should reconsider their assumptions.
• EU's Response: The European Union is divided on offering Ukraine EU membership, but there is a call for closer cooperation and reform support.

3. NATO's Challenges in Afghanistan

• Strategic Ambiguity: NATO has not clearly defined its mission in Afghanistan, leading to divergent public perceptions among member states.
• Troop and Equipment Shortfalls: Insufficient forces and resources are a major issue, with some countries overstretched and others lacking expeditionary capabilities.
• Civilian Resources: The mission requires more coordinated civilian support, including development aid and police training.
• Bucharest Summit: The summit will focus on short-term corrections, while long-term reforms are expected at the 2009 NATO summit.
• Strategic Concept: NATO needs a new strategic concept to align with current security challenges.

4. Ukraine's 16 Years of Independence

• Progress: Ukraine has made significant strides in becoming a modern European democracy, including establishing sovereignty, democratic institutions, and a reformed economy.
• Challenges: The country still needs to improve governance, combat corruption, and modernize its legal and economic systems.
• Reform Priorities: Key reforms include judicial restructuring, energy sector liberalization, and enhanced integration with Europe and the global community.
• EU and U.S. Support: The report urges European Union and U.S. support in Ukraine's reform efforts, including a free trade agreement and a membership action plan in NATO.

Key Information

• G-8 Summit (July 2008): A potential test for Medvedev's foreign policy leadership.
• NATO Summit (April 2008): Expected to address short-term issues in Afghanistan, including troop and equipment commitments.
• Ukraine's Net Assessment: A CSIS report highlights successes and remaining challenges in Ukraine's post-independence development.
• European Elections: Spain's Socialist Party won the most seats in parliamentary elections.
• Missile Defense Deal: U.S. officials are confident in negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic on missile defense.
• Euro Exchange Rates: The euro reached historic highs against the dollar, while the pound regained previous levels.
• Kosovo Independence: Caused tensions with Serbia and Russia, with Serbia planning early elections.
• Mediterranean Union: Germany and France modified Sarkozy's Mediterranean Union plan to include all EU members.

Upcoming Events

Authors and Contributors

• Andrew C. Kuchins: Director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program.
• Soeren Kern: Senior analyst for transatlantic relations at the Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos.
• Julianne Smith and Michael Williams: Authors of the NATO Afghanistan analysis.
• Steven Pifer: Senior adviser to the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

Conclusion

The issue reflects a complex interplay of Russian-Western relations, European political dynamics, and NATO's strategic challenges. It underscores the potential for change in Russia under Medvedev, the nuanced European response to the U.S. election, and the need for sustained reform and cooperation in Ukraine and Afghanistan.