2001年-世界发展银行全球_The_Recent_Trade_Performance_Of_Sub-Saharan_African_Countries___Cause_for_Hope_or_More_of_the_Same__3页_532kb

Sub-Saharan African Trade Performance Summary

Core Content

This study, titled On the Recent Trade Performance of Sub-Saharan Countries: Cause for Hope or More of the Same? by Francis Ng and Alexander J. Yeats, analyzes the trade performance of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from the early 1980s to the early 2000s. The focus is on whether recent economic and trade policy changes have improved international competitiveness and export performance.

Main Questions Addressed

The study explores the following key questions:

• Has the export growth of SSA countries accelerated and matched global trade growth?

  • SSA countries have been increasingly marginalized in world trade, with a significant decline in their share of global exports.
  • While the decline in export share may have slowed or stabilized after 1993, the data are not conclusive due to the short time period and fluctuating global demand for traditional exports.

• Has the structure of African exports shifted toward more growth-friendly products?

  • The share of manufactured exports among larger African countries increased from 19% to 28%, driven by a few countries like Mauritius and South Africa.
  • However, the overall diversity of exports has not expanded, and some countries have become more concentrated in specific products.

• Have micro-level trade improvements occurred that are not captured by aggregate statistics?

  • There is no significant evidence of a general increase in "revealed" comparative advantage or a shift toward more processed primary commodities.
  • The geographic diversification of exports has increased, as SSA countries have entered new foreign markets.

• Has intra-industry trade and production sharing increased in African countries?

  • Intra-industry trade and cross-country production sharing have not seen meaningful growth in most SSA countries.
  • SACU (Southern African Customs Union) is an exception, showing gains in competitive market shares.

• Have African countries improved their trade relationships and penetrated non-traditional markets?

  • There is some evidence of geographic diversification, but overall trade relationships remain limited.

• What is the role of self-imposed government and commercial restrictions on trade performance?

  • Governance and commercial policies in SSA countries are still restrictive compared to other developing countries that have experienced successful export-led industrialization.

Key Findings

• Export Share Decline:

  • Sub-Saharan Africa's share in global exports fell from 3.1% in 1955 to 1.2% by the early 1990s, representing a loss of approximately $65 billion annually.
  • From 1993 onwards, the decline in export share may have slowed or stabilized, but this is not a strong trend.

• Export Composition:

  • Manufactures accounted for 19% of total exports in the early 1980s, rising to 28% by the late 1990s.
  • The share of food exports increased by about 5 percentage points, while fuel exports declined by 20 percentage points.

• Export Diversification:

  • There was no meaningful expansion in the diversity of exports.
  • Some countries showed more concentrated export structures, which may limit long-term growth potential.

• Global Demand Trends:

  • There was a remarkable increase in global demand for key African exports like coffee, cocoa, and cotton, which expanded at least 50% faster than the average for all goods.
  • This demand surge contributed to a $9.6 billion increase in African exports between 1993 and 1996.

• Intra-Industry Trade and Production Sharing:

  • Intra-industry trade and production sharing have not significantly increased in most SSA countries.
  • SACU is an exception, with competitive market share gains adding $2.5 billion to its exports.

• Governance and Policy:

  • Governance and commercial policies in SSA countries are still restrictive, limiting business environments and trade performance.
  • Successful export-led industrialization in other developing countries is associated with more favorable policies and governance.

Conclusion

The study suggests that while there have been some positive developments in the trade performance of Sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in terms of geographic diversification and increased global demand for certain products, the overall structure and competitiveness of exports have not fundamentally changed. The lack of diversification and the persistence of restrictive policies indicate that the region still faces significant challenges in achieving sustained economic growth and industrialization. The findings highlight the need for further reforms in governance and commercial policies to improve the business environment and enhance export performance.