20140901-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_47页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of stock performance, company results, and key financial indicators for various regions and companies, with a focus on China, Indonesia, and Singapore. It includes analysis of financial metrics, earnings reports, and investment recommendations.
China Highlights
China BlueChemical (3983 HK)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Revenue: Rmb5,264m, up 0.8% yoy, in line with expectations.
- Net profit: Rmb447.5m, down 53.3% yoy, missing expectations by Rmb403m, mainly due to a one-off investment loss of Rmb380m from its associate.
- Key Factors:
- Gross profit margin declined 3.0ppt to 26.7%, due to weak urea and phosphate fertiliser prices and lower production costs.
- Selling and distribution expenses rose 61.4% yoy to Rmb194m, attributed to increased export activity and freight rate hikes.
- Catalysts for 2H14:
- Expected rebound in domestic fertiliser prices.
- Favourable export policies to alleviate domestic oversupply.
- Recommendation:
- Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$5.30.
- Upside potential: +38.7% from current price (HK$3.82).
- Key Financials (1H14):
- Revenue: Rmb5,264m
- Net profit: Rmb447.5m
- EBITDA: Rmb3,109m
- Net profit margin: 8.5%
- Balance Sheet:
- Total assets: Rmb19,150m
- Shareholders' equity: Rmb14,705m
- Net debt/(cash) to equity: -29.5% (2014F)
- Cash Flow:
- Net cash inflow: Rmb1,432m (2014F)
- Operating cash flow: Rmb2,223m
- Capital expenditure (Capex): Rmb188m
- Valuation:
- PE (2015F): 8.6x
- Dividend yield (2015F): 4.6%
- Net debt/(cash) to equity: -29.5% (2014F)
- Interest cover: 292.1x
China Construction Bank (939 HK)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Net profit: Rmb130.7b, up 9.1% yoy, in line with expectations.
- Net interest income: Rmb211,292m, up 12.6% yoy.
- Net fees and comms: Rmb60,180m, up 8.4% yoy.
- Key Factors:
- Better-than-peer asset quality and capital position.
- NPL balance increased 5.4% qoq to Rmb95,668m, NPL ratio rose 2bps to 1.04%.
- Core tier-1 capital ratio remained stable at 11.21%.
- Recommendation:
- Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$6.65.
- Upside potential: +15.5% from current price (HK$5.76).
- Key Financials (1H14):
- Net interest income: Rmb211,292m
- Net fees and comms: Rmb60,180m
- Net profit: Rmb130,662m
- EBITDA: Rmb3,109m
- Balance Sheet:
- Total assets: Rmb19,150m
- Shareholders' equity: Rmb14,705m
- Net debt/(cash) to equity: -29.5% (2014F)
- Stock Performance:
- 1mth: -2.9%
- 3mth: +1.4%
- 6mth: +8.1%
- 1yr: +1.1%
- YTD: -1.5%
- Dividend Yield:
- 2015F: 6.0%
China Merchant Bank (3968 HK)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Earnings in line with expectations.
- Robust assets growth but with surging NPLs.
- Recommendation:
- Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$18.20.
China Railway Construction Corp. (1186 HK)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Net profit increased 4.8% yoy, but finance costs eroded growth.
- Recommendation:
- Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$10.03.
China Railway Group (390 HK)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Net profit increased 16.4% yoy due to margin expansion.
- Recommendation:
- Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$5.02.
China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Net profit up 5.1% yoy, in line with expectations.
- Recommendation:
- SELL with a target price of HK$10.20.
Lijun Intl (2005 HK)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Results better than expected.
- Launches new business strategies for sustainable growth.
- Recommendation:
- Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$5.00.
Shougang Fushan (639 HK)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Results indicate the company is not out of the woods yet.
- Recommendation:
- HOLD with a target price of HK$2.00.
Indonesia Highlights
Consumer Sector Strategy
- Key Insight:
- Share prices are highly correlated with input costs.
- Recommendation:
- BUY for ICBP, INDF, MYOR, CPIN, MAIN, and KLBF, as input costs have fallen over 20% from their peaks.
Singapore Highlights
Kris Energy (KRIS SP)
- Recommendation:
- Initiate coverage with a BUY rating.
- Target price: S$1.18 (47.5% upside).
- Current price: S$0.80.
Olam International (OLAM SP)
- 1H14 Performance:
- Results below expectations due to lower margins.
- FY15 expected to see moderate sales volume growth with more stable EBITDA margin.
- Recommendation:
- HOLD with a target price of S$2.35.
Key Indices Performance (as of 01 September 2014)
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17098.5 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| S&P 500 | 2003.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 8.4 |
| FTSE 100 | 6819.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| AS30 | 5624.6 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 5.1 |
| CSI 300 | 2338.3 | 1.2 | -1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| FSSTI | 3327.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 5.0 |
| HSCEI | 10963.6 | 0.3 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 1.4 |
| HSI | 24742.1 | 0.0 | -1.5 | 0.9 | 6.2 |
| JCI | 5136.9 | -0.9 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 20.2 |
| KLCI | 1866.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| KOSPI | 2068.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 2.8 |
| Nikkei 225 | 15424.6 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -5.3 |
| SET | 1561.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 20.2 |
| TWSE | 9436.3 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 9.6 |
| BDI | 1147 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 52.7 | -49.6 |
Top Picks (BUY)
| Company | Ticker | CP (Icy) | TP (Icy) | Pot. +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNBM | 3323 HK | 7.12 | 7.54 | 5.9 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 5.14 | 6.15 | 19.6 |
| Bank | BMRI J | 10,375.00 | 10,800.00 | 4.1 |
| Gamuda | GAM MK | 4.83 | 5.60 | 15.9 |
| DBS | DBS SP | 17.92 | 22.68 | 26.6 |
| Pacific Radiance | PACRA SP | 1.45 | 1.76 | 21.4 |
| Bangkok | BBL TB | 205.00 | 237.00 | 15.6 |
Key Assumptions
| Indicator | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (% yoy) | - | - | - |
| US | 1.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Euro Zone | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Japan | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Singapore | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Malaysia | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Thailand | 2.9 | 1.5 | 5.1 |
| Indonesia | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Hong Kong | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| China | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| Aluminium | 1,886 | 1,713 | 1,650 |
| Copper | 7,349 | 6,866 | 6,850 |
| Gold | 1,411 | 1,321 | 1,400 |
| Iron Ore | 135 | 103 | 95 |
| CPO (US$/mt) | 736 | 788 | 848 |
| BDI | 1,219 | 1,500 | 1,800 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| 361 Degrees Luncheon | Hong Kong | 2 Sep | 2 Sep |
| Top Glove Corporate Roadshow | Montreal | 2 Sep | 2 Sep |
| China Healthcare Sector Analyst Presentation | Taipei | 3 Sep | 3 Sep |
| China Healthcare Sector Analyst Presentation | Singapore | 8 Sep | 8 Sep |
| China Healthcare Sector Analyst Presentation | Kuala Lumpur | 10 Sep | 10 Sep |
| China Traditional Chinese Medicine Corporate Roadshow | Taipei | 3 Sep | 3 Sep |
| China Traditional Chinese Medicine Corporate Roadshow | Singapore | 4 Sep | 4 Sep |
| China Traditional Chinese Medicine Corporate Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 5 Sep | 5 Sep |
| China Traditional Chinese Medicine Corporate Roadshow | Hong Kong | 8 Sep | 8 Sep |
| Int'l Housewares Retail Luncheon | Hong Kong | 4 Sep | 4 Sep |
| Xinchen China Power Luncheon | Hong Kong | 5 Sep | 5 Sep |
| Sihuan Pharmaceutical Corporate Roadshow | Singapore | 8 Sep | 8 Sep |
| Sihuan Pharmaceutical Corporate Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 9 Sep | 9 Sep |
| Sihuan Pharmaceutical Corporate Roadshow | Hong Kong | 11 Sep | 11 Sep |
| Xingda Corporate Roadshow | Taipei | 22 Sep | 22 Sep |
| CIFI Holdings Corporate Roadshow | London | 25 Sep | 25 Sep |
| CIFI Holdings Corporate Roadshow | Milan | 26 Sep | 26 Sep |
| Asian Gems Conference | Singapore | 8 Oct | 9 Oct |
Summary of Key Points
-
China BlueChemical (3983 HK):
- Revenue in line, but net profit missed due to one-off investment loss.
- Earnings rebound expected in 2H14 due to fertiliser price recovery and export policy changes.
- Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$5.30.
-
China Construction Bank (939 HK):
- Solid earnings with better-than-peer asset quality and capital position.
- Net interest income and fees growth were strong.
- Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$6.65.
-
Indonesia Consumer Sector:
- Share prices correlated with input costs, which have dropped significantly.
- BUY recommended for ICBP, INDF, MYOR, CPIN, MAIN, and KLBF.
-
Singapore:
- Kris Energy (KRIS SP) is a BUY with a target price of S$1.18.
- Olam International (OLAM SP) is HOLD due to below expectations.
-
Valuation and Financials:
- China BlueChemical is trading at 8.6x 2015F PE.
- CCB has a strong capital position and better asset quality.
- Earnings forecasts for BlueChemical were revised downward due to one-off losses and weaker margins.
-
Corporate Events:
- Multiple roadshows and luncheons are scheduled for September 2014, including in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur.
Conclusion
The document outlines key financial and operational updates for several Chinese and Singaporean companies, with a focus on earnings performance, investment strategies, and future outlook. It also highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors and market trends on company results. BUY recommendations are maintained for several companies, while others are downgraded or held. The focus is on improving margins, managing costs, and leveraging export policies to drive growth.
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