2025-06-16-花旗集团-安特恩（ENT）_Entain（ENT.L）_BetMGM将2025财年营收预期中点上调超过6_息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）预期为市场普遍预期的两倍_10页_301kb

Entain (ENT.L) Summary

Core Content

• Company: Entain (ENT.L) is a global entertainment and betting company with a significant stake in BetMGM, a joint venture in the U.S. market.
• Recent Update: BetMGM has upgraded its FY25 revenue and EBITDA guidance due to better-than-expected 2QTD trading performance, with no specific benefit from sports results.
• Revenue Guidance: FY25 Net Revenue is now expected to be at least $2.6 billion, up from the previous range of $2.4–$2.5 billion.
• EBITDA Guidance: FY25 EBITDA is expected to be at least $100 million, surpassing the previous guidance of positive EBITDA and exceeding Citi's estimate of $58.7 million and VA Cons's $47.9 million.
• Market Reaction: The upgraded guidance is expected to lead to a positive share price reaction for Entain.
• Target Price: Citi Research has set a one-year target price of £12.50, which is 66.4% return from the current price of £7.51.
• Expected Total Return: Includes a dividend yield of 2.5%, leading to a total return of 68.9%.
• Market Cap: As of 13 June 2025, Entain's market cap is £4,803M or US$6,515M.

Valuation Methodology

• Valuation Approach: Based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation on FY26 earnings.
• Multiples Applied:
  • EV/EBITDA of 9x for the online segment.
  • EV/EBITDA of 6x for the retail/other segment.
• US Opportunity Valuation: Valued using DCF with assumptions:
  • 10% WACC
  • 2% terminal growth
  • 10% market share
• Implication: The DCF approach implies a 9.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on discounted maturity (2029) EBITDA.

Key Risks

• Downside Risks:
  • Further top-line downgrades to Online NGR growth.
  • A smaller-than-expected US market.
  • Lower-than-expected US market share.
  • Changes in tax and regulation in regulated markets that may reduce profitability.
• Other Considerations: The potential for catalyst events not materializing as expected, leading to share price deviations.

Investment Rating

• Citi Research Investment Rating: Buy.
• Rating Definitions:
  • Buy: ETR of 15% or more (or 25% or more for high-risk stocks).
  • Sell: Negative ETR.
  • Neutral: No Buy or Sell rating, and no target price assigned if insufficient valuation drivers or investment catalysts.

Catalyst Watch and Short-Term Views

• Catalyst Watch: Indicates the analyst expects the share price to rise or fall in absolute terms over 30 or 90 days due to specific near-term catalysts.
• STV (Short-Term View): Similar to Catalyst Watch but with moderate confidence.
• Catalyst Watch Expiration: Automatically expires at the end of the 30/90-day period, unless over-ridden by the analyst.
• Catalyst Watch Removal: Automatically removed if share price performance exceeds 15% against the direction of the call.

Analyst Information

• Primary Analyst: Monique Pollard (AC).
• Other Analysts: Jamie Bass, Elizabeth Moore, Vandita Sood.
• Analyst Certifications:
  • Certify that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect their personal views.
  • Ensure that no part of compensation is linked to specific recommendations or views.
• Conflict of Interest: Citi Research may have a conflict of interest due to business relationships with covered companies.

Important Disclosures

• Citi Ownership: Citi Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Entain.
• Compensation: Analysts receive compensation based on Firm profitability, including investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading revenues.
• Catalyst Watch/STV Disclosure:
  • These calls are not recommendations.
  • They are not subject to FINRA restrictions.
  • They do not affect the fundamental equity rating.
• Investor Advisory:
  • Past performance is not indicative of future results.
  • Forecasts are not guarantees.
  • Investors should consider investment objectives, risks, and expenses before investing.
  • Information is strictly for illustrative purposes.

Regulatory and Compliance Information

• FINRA: Non-U.S. research analysts are not registered with FINRA.
• European Regulation: Requires a 5-year price history when past performance is referenced.
• Israeli Regulation: The communication is not intended for retail clients.
• U.S. Sanctions: U.S. persons are prohibited from investing in securities of companies under the Executive Order 13959.
• Turkish Regulation: Investment information is not within the scope of investment advisory activity.
• Other Jurisdictions:
  • In Australia, the Product is made available by Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited.
  • In Brazil, the Product is regulated by CVM, BACEN, APIMEC, and ANBIMA.
  • In Chile, the Product is available through Banchile Corredores de Bolsa S.A..

Investment Considerations

• Non-U.S. Securities Risks:
  • May not be registered with the U.S. SEC.
  • May have limited information.
  • May be less liquid and more volatile.
  • Exchange rate movements may affect value and dividends for U.S. investors.
• Dividend Calculation: Net dividends to ADR investors are estimated and may differ based on withholding tax conventions.

Summary of Key Points

• Upgraded Guidance: BetMGM's FY25 revenue and EBITDA guidance has been upgraded, suggesting a positive impact on Entain's group results.
• Valuation: Based on a sum-of-the-parts approach and DCF for the U.S. market.
• Investment Rating: Buy with a target price of £12.50.
• Risks: Include top-line downgrades, market size, regulatory changes, and catalyst failure.
• Catalyst Watch: Indicates short-term price expectations based on specific events.
• Analyst Affiliations: All analysts are certified and independent.
• Disclosures: Include ownership, compensation, conflict of interest, and regulatory compliance.