卡内基国际和平基金会-Why-NATO-Is-on-the-Right-Track_8页_281kb

CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE: Summary of "Why NATO Is on the Right Track"

Core Content

The document discusses NATO's evolving nuclear policy in the context of the 2010 Lisbon Summit and outlines a realistic and moderate approach to rethinking the Alliance's nuclear posture. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining NATO as a nuclear alliance while reducing the role and number of nuclear weapons and fostering cooperation with Russia on arms control.

Main Points of the Document

1. New Strategic Concept at Lisbon Summit

• The Lisbon Summit will adopt a new Strategic Concept, which will guide NATO's nuclear policy for the coming decade.
• The document supports the Clinton principles proposed by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which suggest:
  • Retaining NATO's nuclear status with shared responsibilities.
  • Reducing the role and number of nuclear weapons.
  • Pursuing missile defense and arms control agreements with Russia.
• The Strategic Concept will not include dramatic changes in nuclear posture, such as withdrawal or redeployment of weapons, but will lay the groundwork for future discussions.

2. NATO's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR)

• The NPR is expected to be conducted by the North-Atlantic Council in Permanent Session.
• A multi-track approach is recommended, addressing:
  • Tactical nuclear weapons
  • Stockpiled U.S. strategic weapons
  • Conventional arms control
  • Missile defense
• The goal is to move toward a nuclear-weapon-free zone from the Atlantic to the Urals.

3. Balancing Deterrence and Disarmament

• NATO's nuclear policy is crucial for deterrence and defense, especially for newer members like the Baltic states and Poland.
• The U.S. extended deterrence approach has been effective in integrating transatlantic security commitments.
• The document warns against divisive debates on nuclear policy, suggesting that such discussions could destabilize the Alliance.

4. Russia and NATO Cooperation

• Russia is a key partner in arms control negotiations, and cooperation is essential for progress.
• The German government advocates for reductions in tactical nuclear weapons but within the framework of an arms control agreement with Russia.
• The U.S. has already made significant unilateral disarmament efforts, reducing tactical nuclear weapons from over 7,000 in 1990 to a much lower number today.

5. The Role of the NATO-Russian Council

• The Council should lead the tactical nuclear weapons track of the multi-track approach.
• This could result in the withdrawal of all remaining nuclear weapons from Europe, aligning with the goal of a nuclear-free continent.
• The Council has a unique opportunity to demonstrate its relevance and impact since its establishment in 2002.

Key Recommendations

• NATO should endorse the Clinton principles at the Lisbon Summit and proceed with a detailed Nuclear Posture Review.
• The Secretary General must take full authority over the NPR to ensure consensus among member states.
• A capital-driven review process should be established, involving representatives from both defense and foreign affairs ministries.
• Tactical nuclear weapons negotiations should be integrated with broader discussions on strategic systems, conventional forces, and missile defense.
• Public debate is expected but should remain focused and constructive to avoid destabilizing the Alliance.

Conclusion

The document argues that a moderate and realistic approach to NATO's nuclear policy is the most viable path forward. It advocates for joint decision-making, cooperation with Russia, and a multi-track strategy to ensure NATO remains a credible and effective alliance in a changing security environment.