2025-02-23-世界银行-马拉维经济监测_2025年1月_不作为的成本上升（英）_59页_8mb

Overview of Malawi’s Economy

• Economic Challenges:
  • GDP growth at 1.8% (2024), per capita income declining for three consecutive years.
  • Severe drought (2023–24) reduced agricultural output by 2.0%, leading to record food insecurity with 5.7 million people facing crisis-level insecurity.
  • Inflation at 27%, driven by high food, housing, and utility prices plus rapid money supply growth (51% YoY in Oct 2024).
  • Fiscal deficit widened due to overspending; rigid expenditures (e.g., interest payments) limit fiscal space.

Mining Sector Insights

• Potential: Abundant energy-transition minerals like graphite, uranium, and rare earths could drive economic growth by 2031, generating US$30bn in exports.
• Challenges:
  • Delays in MDA/Mining Permit approvals (avg lead time 27 years), limited institutional capacity.
  • Energy and transport infrastructure deficits, human capital shortage in specialized fields.
  • Price volatility and unrealistic stakeholder expectations.

Priority Policy Actions (Mining)

1. Enable Sector Growth: Accelerate MDA approvals, conduct geoscientific research, promote investment.
2. Social/Eco Prot. safeguard: Ensure transparency, upgrade OHS standards, establish multi-stakeholder dialogue.
3. Benefit Realization: Improve mineral valuation methods, develop skilled workforce, enhance tax adminstrations.