20211205-IMF-Australia_2021_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Australia_84页_3mb

Australia's economy, following a strong recovery from initial COVID-19 shocks in 2020, faced interruptions due to Delta variant outbreaks starting mid-2021, impacting service sectors and construction disproportionately. Growth is projected at 3.5% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022 as restrictions ease. House prices surged (21.6% YoY), raising financial stability risks, and the central bank increased a serviceability buffer to 3%. Inflation jumped due to temporary factors, though underlying inflation is expected to rise gradually toward the 2-3% target. Supply-side reforms (e.g., zoning, infrastructure) and fiscal measures are being considered to address housing affordability.

IMF recommends maintaining accommodative policies to support recovery, enhancing structural reforms, and reviewing climate policy, possibly with carbon pricing. Authorities emphasize phased fiscal withdrawal and technology investment for net-zero emissions by 2050. Uncertainties include pandemic trajectory and global supply chains, requiring tailored policy responses.