2022-10-07-IMF-IMF-新冠肺炎衰退是否增加了美国对数字职业的需求_就业和空缺数据证据（英）_37页_3mb

The COVID-19 recession temporarily increased the share of digital occupations in employment and vacancies in the United States, particularly in regions severely affected by the pandemic. This increase was concentrated in harder-hit areas due to digital occupations being more insulated from the recession compared to non-digital ones, with minimal decline relative to non-digital employment or vacancy rates. However, the effect was not permanent, as shares converged to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022. Factors such as city location and task type (e.g., cognitive occupations) amplified this insulation. The findings suggest no structural or persistent shift in labor demand toward digital skills, driven by factors like reduced quit rates or teleworkability, and the results hold across various robustness checks.

Key Insights:

• Regional Variation: Harder-hit regions experienced temporary increases in digital share due to shielded demand.

• Occupational Factors: Digital protection was stronger in urban and cognitive roles, lessening for routine and manual tasks.

• Temporal Aspect: While the shock allowed digital occupations to hold ground more effectively, the overall demand did not shift permanently.

Conclusion:
The study concludes that the COVID-19 recession did not fundamentally alter the long-term demand for digital occupations, despite a higher share during the pandemic in favorable contexts.