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Summary of Tanzania Climate Action Report for 2016

Country Context

Tanzania, comprising Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar, has a total area of 945,087 square kilometres and an estimated population of over 55 million in 2016. The country's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, which contributes about 24% to GDP and employs 75% of the workforce. Ireland supports Tanzania through Irish Aid, focusing on climate action and social protection for older people.

Climate Change Trends and Policy Framework

Recent Climate Trends

Tanzania experiences varying climate conditions across its regions. Coastal areas like Dar es Salaam receive high rainfall and warm temperatures, while central and semi-arid regions face significant drought risks. The average annual temperature has increased by 1.0°C since 1960, with a more pronounced rise in night-time temperatures. Rainfall has decreased by 2.8 mm per month per decade, particularly in southern regions, affecting agricultural productivity.

Projections of Future Climate

By the 2060s, Tanzania is projected to experience an increase in average annual temperature by 1.0 to 2.7°C, and by the 2090s, up to 4.5°C. Rainfall is expected to increase, but more frequently in heavy events, not necessarily improving year-round water availability. Central and Northern Zones, which are semi-arid, are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and extreme events.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Tanzania's greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low, with per capita emissions at 0.2 tCO2e in 2015. However, emissions from Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF), agriculture, and energy are significant. The country aims to reduce emissions by 10-20% by 2030 relative to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. The INDC was submitted in 2015, and ratification of the Paris Agreement is expected by the end of 2017.

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability

Over 90% of Tanzanians depend on agriculture, which is increasingly affected by climate change due to unpredictable rainfall. Declining rainfall and frequent droughts and floods have significant impacts on food security and nutrition. The National Climate Change Strategy (2012) highlights the need for adaptation in key agricultural areas. Economic impacts of climate change are estimated to cost US$100-150 million annually, with a projected 1-2% decline in GDP by 2030. Malaria is also expanding into highland areas traditionally free from the disease.

Policy Framework

Tanzania has a range of climate-related policies and strategies, including the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA 2007), the National Climate Change Strategy (2012), and the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC, 2015). Sector-specific strategies include the National Climate Change Communication Strategy and the Tanzania Agriculture Climate Resilience Plan. Despite these policies, challenges remain in institutional coordination and inter-sectoral cooperation for effective implementation.

NDC Implementation Progress

Tanzania has not yet signed or ratified the Paris Agreement but submitted its INDC in 2015. The NDC aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 10-20% by 2030. The Government is working with GIZ to implement the NDC, and the first Biennial Update Report (BUR) is expected to be reviewed.

Progress on National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

The Government of Tanzania is supported by GIZ to conduct a comprehensive stocktake for the NAP across local councils, ministries, and agencies. The NAP stocktaking report is expected by the end of 2017. Tanzania has applied for GCF NAP readiness funds, but the application is still under review.

Key Partner Country's Bilateral Projects and Programmes

Developing a High Quality Cocoa Value Chain

• Objective: Improve incomes of 5,000 smallholder farmers in Mbeya and Morogoro.
• Focus: Climate adaptation, reducing chemical inputs, and promoting organic farming.
• Funding: €450,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

More Milk Project

• Objective: Improve milk production and marketing through Dairy Market Hubs.
• Focus: Economic empowerment and improved nutrition.
• Funding: €200,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

MVIWATA

• Objective: Strengthen lobbying, farmer networks, and capacity building.
• Focus: Address land use conflicts, promote climate-smart practices.
• Funding: €150,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

ANSAF: Training for Local Level Leaders on Climate Change

• Objective: Train local leaders and citizens on climate change adaptation and mitigation.
• Focus: Conservation agriculture and climate-resilient crops.
• Funding: €100,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

SNV: Oil Seeds Value Chain Project

• Objective: Improve producer associations and oil seed value chains.
• Focus: Climate-smart crops such as sunflower and sesame.
• Funding: €150,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

Fostering Gender Equitable Land Governance

• Objective: Promote inclusive agricultural development and pastoralism.
• Focus: Secure land and grazing rights, gender equity.
• Funding: €150,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

Agriculture Value Chain Development Programme

• Objective: Support smallholder farmers in selected markets.
• Focus: Improve value chain infrastructure and competitiveness.
• Funding: €250,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

Harnessing Agriculture for Nutrition Outcomes (HANO)

• Objective: Reduce chronic malnutrition in children under two years.
• Focus: Improved diets and nutrition outcomes.
• Funding: €125,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

Lishe Ruvuma: Scaling Up Nutrition Actions

• Objective: Improve nutritional status of children, pregnant, and lactating women.
• Focus: First 1,000 days of life, evidence-based nutrition actions.
• Funding: €200,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

Bringing Nutrition Actions to Scale

• Objective: Reduce chronic undernutrition among young children in Iringa, Njombe, and Mbeya.
• Focus: Community-based nutrition interventions.
• Funding: €1,100,000 (50% adaptation, 50% cross-cutting).

Case Study: Diversifying Crop Varieties Based on Climate Conditions

Aisha Hussein, a pastoralist farmer in Meru District, shifted from growing maize and beans to drought-resistant horticultural crops such as tomatoes, sweet peppers, and watermelon. This diversification has improved her food security and income, as these crops yield more and can be grown in multiple cycles per year. Her experience highlights the importance of climate-smart agricultural practices in enhancing resilience.

Climate Finance Allocation

• Bilateral Climate Finance (UNFCCC): €2,875,000
  • Adaptation: €1,875,000
  • Mitigation: €0
  • Cross-cutting: €1,000,000
• Civil Society Climate Finance: €263,982
  • Adaptation: €263,982
  • Mitigation: €0
  • Cross-cutting: €0

The Rio Marker methodology was used to categorize climate finance. Projects were marked based on their relevance to climate adaptation, mitigation, or cross-cutting. The methodology helps in systematically accounting for climate-related expenditures.