2019年欧洲私募股权展望（英文版）_40页_1mb

报告摘要

European Private Equity Outlook 2019 Summary

Core Content

The European Private Equity Outlook 2019 is the 10th publication in a series by Roland Berger, offering insights into the private equity (PE) market and its development in 2019 based on a survey of over 2,500 experts from leading PE firms across Europe.

Main Views and Key Information

M&A Transaction Outlook

PE professionals are less optimistic about the outlook for M&A transactions with PE involvement in 2019 compared to previous years.
More than 48% of respondents expect a decrease in the number of such transactions, while 31% expect an increase.
The overall economic situation/cycle and political stability are the most influential factors for M&A with PE involvement, with both expected to deteriorate slightly.
The availability of attractive acquisition targets is expected to remain broadly stable.

Regional Growth Expectations

Spain and Portugal are seen as the most favorable for growth in 2019, possibly due to a positive catch-up effect.
Germany remains a positive market, but with less intensity than in previous years.
Scandinavia and CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) are also expected to see positive developments.
The UK is expected to see a decline in M&A activity due to Brexit uncertainty.
Italy, Greece and France are expected to have lower growth expectations.

Industry Trends

The top three industries for M&A with PE involvement in 2019 are:
- Pharma & Healthcare
- Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT)
- Business Services & Logistics
Consumer goods & retail and financial services are also expected to see a large number of transactions.
The building & construction industry is expected to see a decline in PE transactions.

Transaction Size Classes

The mid/small-cap segment (deals up to EUR 100 m) is seen as the most promising.
The large-cap segment (enterprise values above EUR 500 m) is expected to see a slight decrease.

PE Activity Focus

The development of portfolio companies is the new top priority for PE professionals in 2019, up from 30% in 2018.
Divesting existing investments is expected to be less important (22% vs. 30% in 2018).
Add-on acquisitions and digitalization/Industry 4.0 are still seen as key value creation measures.
Cycle resilience of portfolio companies has increased in importance by 10 ppt. compared to 2018.

Exit Channels

Sale to PE investors and strategic investors are expected to be the most promising exit channels.
The IPO channel is viewed with increasing skepticism, and its importance is expected to decline.
Dual and triple tracks (e.g., IPO and M&A process) are also expected to see a slight decrease.

Target Sources

Majority shareholdings in family-owned companies are the most important source of attractive targets, with 65% of respondents expecting this to remain important.
Secondary buyouts and carve-outs from groups are also important.
Listed companies (taking private) and insolvent companies/distressed deals have increased in attractiveness.
Minority investments are considered less important, down by 4 ppt. from 2018.

Valuation Multiples

91% of PE professionals consider current valuation multiples slightly overvalued.
63% expect valuation multiples to slightly decrease in 2019.
Reasons for overvaluation include the low interest rate environment and favorable credit markets.

Competition for Fundraising

50% of respondents expect no change in the level of competition for fundraising.
A 9 ppt. increase is seen in the expectation of more intense competition from Chinese investors.

External Financing

Refinancing and recapitalization are expected to become slightly more difficult to raise.
Growth financing is expected to see the least change in expectations.

Process Uncertainty

54% of respondents expect process uncertainty in the M&A environment to persist in 2019, up from 39% in 2018.
Process uncertainty can lead to delays, pulled processes, and more bidders.

Changes in the PE Business Model

The PE business model is expected to evolve towards:
- More active portfolio management
- Increased resilience to economic changes (i.e., "weatherproof" portfolio companies)
- Geographical expansion
Minority shareholdings have lost some appeal, while cooperation with hedge funds has gained some ground.

Value Creation Measures

Add-on acquisitions and digitalization/Industry 4.0 are still seen as key value creators.
Cycle resilience has become significantly more important in 2019.
Pricing, purchasing/supply chain optimization, working capital optimization, and refinancing are considered less important.

Comparison with Previous Years

After a successful 2017-2018, PE professionals have become less confident in the development of PE-backed transactions in 2019.
The top three industries for M&A activities have remained unchanged over the last three years.
Expectations for the availability of attractive targets in 2019 are largely in line with previous years.

Transaction Statistics

European buyout transaction volume slightly decreased to 1,209 deals in 2018, down from 1,466 deals in 2017.
The UK saw the strongest absolute decline in transactions, while Eastern Europe had the strongest relative decline.
TMT, consumer goods & retail, and capital goods & engineering contributed significantly to the overall transaction volumes in 2018.
More than half of all deal values in 2018 were undisclosed, a major change from 2000.
Most disclosed deals had a value below EUR 50 m.
Deals valued over EUR 1 bn have seen the highest CAGR over 2000-2018 at 9%.