> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) Inaugural Year of Commercialization Summary ## Core Content Kelun-Biotech has marked 2025 as its transformational commercialization year, transitioning from a clinical-stage biotech to a biopharmaceutical company. The company reported total revenue of RMB2.06bn for FY25, representing a 6.5% YoY increase. Pharmaceutical product sales reached RMB543mn, highlighting the rapid scaling of its commercial infrastructure. Despite a widened net loss of RMB382.0mn compared to RMB266.8mn in FY24, the company's financial position remains strong, with RMB4.6bn in cash and financial assets at the end of 2025. ## Key Milestones - **Sac-TMT**: - Secured **CNPV (Commissioner's National Priority Voucher)** from the FDA in January 2026, enabling an ultra-fast regulatory review process. - Achieved **positive PFS endpoint** in the **China Ph3 trial** for **1L PD-L1-positive NSCLC** when combined with **pembrolizumab**. - Demonstrated **positive OS benefits** across multiple indications, including **2L EGFRm NSCLC**, **3L EGFRm NSCLC**, **2L+ TNBC**, and **2L+ HR+/HER2- BC**. - Expected to be submitted for **BLA (Biologics License Application)** in **2026** for **$2L+ endometrial cancer**. - Potential **FDA approval** in **late 2026 or early 2027**. - **MSD** is expected to evaluate **combination potential** of Sac-TMT with its **PD-1/VEGF bispecific** in first-line settings. - **A167 and A140**: - Secured **NRDL inclusion** effective **Jan 2026**, setting the stage for **volume growth** in 2026. - **Additional Out-Licensing**: - The **ITGB6 ADC** was licensed to **Crescent** in late 2025, contributing to a revised **DCF-based TP** from **HK$498.55** to **HK$507.11**. ## Financial Performance (FY24A to FY25A) | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | |-------------------------|-----------|-----------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 1,933 | 2,058 | | YoY growth (%) | 25.5% | 6.5% | | Net profit (RMB mn) | (266.8) | (382.0) | | EPS (Reported) (RMB) | (1.21) | (1.66) | | R&D expenses (RMB mn) | 1,206 | 1,320 | ## Shareholding and Stock Data - **Shareholding Structure**: - **Kelun Pharma**: 68.5% - **MSD**: 6.1% - **Stock Data**: - **Market Cap (HK$ mn)**: 98,171.3 - **Average 3 months turnover (HK$ mn)**: 233.0 - **52-week High/Low (HK$)**: 577.50 / 242.00 - **Total Issued Shares (mn)**: 233.2 ## Valuation and DCF Analysis - **DCF Valuation (RMB mn)**: - **2026E**: 101,341 - **Net Debt (RMB mn)**: -2,719 - **Equity Value (RMB mn)**: 104,060 - **DCF per share (HK$)**: **507.11** - **Terminal Growth Rate**: 3.5% - **WACC**: 8.69% - **Cost of Equity**: 12.0% - **Cost of Debt**: 3.0% - **Equity Beta**: 0.90 ## DCF Sensitivity Analysis (HK$) | Terminal Growth Rate | WACC 7.69% | WACC 8.19% | WACC 8.69% | WACC 9.19% | WACC 9.69% | |----------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | 4.5% | 813.53 | 692.26 | 600.18 | 527.94 | 469.82 | | 4.0% | 720.13 | 624.05 | 548.68 | 488.05 | 438.26 | | 3.5% | 649.02 | 570.37 | **507.11**| 455.16 | 411.79 | | 3.0% | 593.06 | 527.03 | 472.83 | 427.59 | 389.28 | ## Earnings and Profitability | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |-------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------| | Revenue Growth (%) | 91.6% | 25.5% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 29.1% | 113.6% | | Gross Profit Margin | 49.3% | 65.9% | 71.9% | 74.6% | 79.1% | 81.6% | | Operating Margin | -24.9% | -7.2% | -17.0% | -30.4% | -13.8% | 15.5% | | ROE | na | 9.5% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 11.6% | 17.3% | ## Key Outlook and Recommendations - **Maintain BUY** recommendation. - **Target Price (HK$)**: **507.11** (up from **498.55**). - **Upside/Downside**: **20.5%** from current price **HK$421.00**. ## Financial Highlights - **Operating cash flow** remains negative in FY26 but is expected to improve significantly in FY28. - **Net cash from financing** is positive in FY25 and FY26, supporting growth and development. - **Capital expenditure** is expected to remain stable at **RMB150mn** in FY26, increasing to **RMB200mn** in FY27 and FY28. - **FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Firm)** is projected to turn positive in FY28, reaching **RMB8,803mn**. ## Conclusion Kelun-Biotech is on a strong trajectory, with a robust financial position and significant progress in its commercialization efforts. The success of the **Sac-TMT Ph3 trial** and **NRDL inclusion** for its core assets are key catalysts for future growth. The **BUY** recommendation is maintained, with a **target price** of **HK$507.11**, reflecting the company's potential for substantial returns over the next 12 months.