> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # China Consumer Pulse 2Q26 Summary ## Core Content The **China Consumer Pulse 2Q26** report highlights the mixed performance of the Chinese consumer market, noting that overall consumption remains under pressure despite some improvements in confidence and inflation indicators. The report analyzes key sectors including **Apparel, Sportswear, Alcohol, Beauty, Travel, Luxury, and Autos**, both in mass and premium categories, and evaluates the implications for **Japanese consumer companies**. ## Main Points ### **Overall Consumer Trends** - **GDP growth** moderated to 4.3% YoY in Q2 from 5.0% in Q1. - **Retail sales** slowed to +0.2% YoY, with **consumer confidence** gradually improving from late 2025 levels. - **CPI** remained positive (c.1%), easing concerns about deflation. - **Premium and Luxury** segments outperformed, showing relative resilience. - **Big ticket goods and Autos** remained weak, with continued caution for H2. ### **Beverages** - **Moutai's Fetien** saw continued **wholesale price increases**, with a second ex-factory price hike in Q2. - **Fetien pricing** rose **+13%** from the trough, and other high-end variants increased **+17-30%**. - **Beer** sales improved, with **+2%** YoY growth. - **Moutai** is the top pick in **China Beverages**, followed by **Nongfu Spring**. ### **Apparel and Sportswear** - **Apparel and Sportswear** outperformed broader retail, driven by **online channels**. - **3P Online sales** grew **10%** in Q2, outpacing the **2%** growth in online retail overall. - **Offline trends** remained muted, with **Pou Sheng** down **-3%** and **offline retail** down **-1%**. - **Nike** showed **+3%** sell-through but expects **negative total growth** due to reduced **sell-in**. - **Adidas** grew rapidly (**+32%**) and gained market share. - **Lululemon** experienced **marketplace declines** due to the **PFAS controversy**, but the situation is expected to normalize. - **Emerging brands** grew at **double-digit rates**. ### **Hotels** - **Chinese hotel RevPAR** continued its recovery in Q2, with **demand growth** driving performance. - **Luxury and Economy** segments showed the strongest RevPAR growth, while other segments struggled. - **IHG** has the most **China exposure** among asset-light hotel names. - The **3-year underperformance** of China has reduced its **impact on fee revenues**. - **RevPAR underperformance** over the last two years means the country is a **smaller component** of fee revenues, but still a **key part of the pipeline**. ### **Luxury Goods** - **China luxury demand** is stabilizing but not yet reaccelerating. - **Value-consciousness** and **K-shaped polarisation** remain defining features. - **Jewellery** outperformed **soft luxury** and **other categories**. - **Affluent consumers** drive demand for **elevated products**, **bespoke offerings**, and **high-ticket purchases**. - **Burberry** is noted as a **brand-specific turnaround**. - **Chinese consumers** continue to **arbitrage** across **Mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea** based on **FX dynamics** and **relative pricing**. ### **Autos** - **Auto sales** declined in Q2, influenced by the **expiration of trade-in subsidies** and a **5% purchase tax hike on EVs**. - **Passenger vehicle sales** dropped **-20% YoY**, down from **-17%** in Q1. - **EV sales** (BEV & PHEV) moderated to **-7% YoY**, compared to **-23%** in Q1. - **EV penetration** reached **59.9%** in Q2, up from **51.4%** in Q2 2025. - **Premium brands** (Audi, BMW, Mercedes) saw **significant declines**, with **Porsche** down **-41% YoY**. - **Mass market** volume also remained weak at **-21% YoY**. - **BYD** topped PV sales with **983k units**, while **Geely Group** was second with **959k units**. ### **Cosmetics** - **Beauty e-commerce GMV** grew **+13% YoY**. - **Tracked beauty companies** grew **+1.3%** and expanded **+62bps** in market share. - **Monthly trends** were volatile, with **April** seeing a **-10.0% YoY** decline, **May** rebounding to **+6.2% YoY**, and **June** declining **-3.2% YoY**. - **6.18 shopping festival** had a **peak impact**, with **online beauty sales** declining **-10.5%**. - **Tracked companies** outperformed in June, gaining **+72bps** in market share. ### **Japanese Consumer Brands in China** - **Uniqlo China** is in a **"scrap-and-build" phase**, reducing its store count from around **1,000 to below 900**. - **Muji** has a **stable store base** and growth is driven by **store productivity**, **e-commerce**, and **FX tailwinds**. - **Asics** is experiencing **high growth** in China, with **LFL store productivity** rising faster than **new store growth**. - **Sushiro** expanded to **over 110 locations** in China, indicating a **positive trajectory**. ## Investment Implications ### **Global Hotels & Leisure** - **Chinese hotel market** continues to recover, with **demand growth** and **slowing supply** driving performance. - **RevPAR growth** was strongest in **Luxury and Economy** segments. - **IHG** has the most **China exposure** but a **reduced share** of fee revenues due to past underperformance. - **OTA companies** have limited **domestic market success**, but **international businesses** remain strong. - **Airbnb** is well-positioned to benefit from **outbound travel**. ### **Global Apparel & Sportswear** - **Secular trends** in health and wellness, casualization, and government initiatives are expected to support **Sportswear growth**. - **Mainstream consumer spending** remains soft, affecting both **Western and Chinese brands**. - **Nike** is in a **reset phase**, with planned **exit of partner-operated online** expected to lead to **declines**. - **Adidas, Lululemon, On, and Hoka** are **gaining market share** with strong **product and brand resonance**. ### **China Premium Beverages** - **CRBeer and Tsingtao H-share** are rated **Outperform**. - **Tsingtao A-Share and Bud APAC** are rated **Market-Perform**. - **Moutai** is rated **Outperform**, while **Wuliangye** is **Underperform**. - **Nongfu Spring** is rated **Outperform**, with **Eastroc A-Share and H-Share** rated **Market-Perform**. ### **Global Luxury Goods** - **Global luxury demand** may be a turning point, with **positive performance** and **improved profit** in the first half of 2026. - **Richemont** is the top pick, with **jewellery momentum** expected to persist. - **Brunello Cucinelli** is favored for its **quality and potential for mean reversion**. - **Hermès** is difficult to be positive on in the short term, but **high single-digit growth** could be forgiven. - **Burberry** is on track for a **turnaround**, with **improved brand momentum** and **full-price sell-through**. ### **European Food and HPC with Premium China Exposure** - **L'Oréal** is rated **Market-Perform** with a **target price of EUR 405**. - **Beiersdorf** is rated **Outperform** with a **target price of EUR 95**. - **Unilever** is rated **Outperform** with a **target price of £58**. ### **China Autos** - A **cautious outlook** is maintained due to **subsidy expiration** and **tax hikes**. - **Wholesale volumes** are expected to reach **c.29 mn units**, down **3-5% YoY**. - **Domestic retail demand** is forecasted at **20-21 mn units**, declining **10-12% YoY**. - **EV exports** are expected to grow **40-50% YoY**, reaching **8.5-9 mn units**. - **Long-term EV growth** remains intact, with **domestic EV sales** expected to grow **3-5% YoY** and **penetration** to reach **62%**. - **BYD and Xiaomi** are rated **Outperform**, while **XPeng, Li Auto, and NIO** are **Market-Perform**. - **Geely** is rated **Outperform**, and **Great Wall, GAC, and SAIC** are **Market-Perform**. ## Key Insights - **Premium and Luxury** segments are **resilient** amid a weak consumer backdrop. - **Online consumption** outperformed **offline**, with **3P Online** growth at **10%**. - **Consumer behavior** is **divergent**, with **higher-income consumers** driving **premium demand**. - **Outbound travel** and **international markets** are **key growth areas** for some companies. - **Market share** shifts are evident, with **emerging brands** and **specific categories** gaining traction. - **Valuation** and **growth expectations** vary significantly across **sectors and brands**. ## Summary Table | Company | Rating | Closing Price | Price Target | Performance | Adjusted EPS 2025A | Adjusted EPS 2026E | Adjusted EPS 2027E | Adjusted P/E 2025A | Adjusted P/E 2026E | Adjusted P/E 2027E | |--------|--------|----------------|----------------|--------------|-------------------|-------------------|-------------------|--------------------|--------------------|--------------------| | Moutai | Outperform | CNY 1,321.00 | CNY 2,015.00 | (31.4)% | CNY 65.53 | CNY 72.57 | CNY 81.89 | 20.2 | 18.2 | 16.1 | | Wuliangye | Underperform | CNY 75.17 | CNY 65.00 | (62.2)% | CNY 2.31 | CNY 3.69 | CNY 3.98 | 32.6 | 20.4 | 18.9 | | Bud APAC | Market-Perform | HKD 6.93 | HKD 7.30 | (43.5)% | USD 0.04 | USD 0.05 | USD 0.05 | 23.8 | 19.5 | 17.1 | | CRB | Outperform | HKD 24.54 | HKD 47.50 | (32.5)% | CNY 1.80 | CNY 2.00 | CNY 2.17 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 9.8 | | Tsingtao H-share | Outperform | HKD 47.08 | HKD 69.00 | (32.6)% | CNY 3.36 | CNY 3.43 | CNY 3.51 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 11.6 | | Tsingtao A-share | Market-Perform | CNY 55.56 | CNY 60.00 | (42.2)% | CNY 3.36 | CNY 3.43 | CNY 3.51 | 16.5 | 16.2 | 15.8 | | Nongfu Spring | Outperform | HKD 44.90 | HKD 53.00 | (26.2)% | RMB 1.41 | RMB 1.62 | RMB 1.88 | 31.8 | 27.8 | 23.9 | | Eastroc A-share | Market-Perform | RMB 142.56 | RMB 142.00 | (58.4)% | RMB 8.49 | RMB 7.37 | RMB 8.34 | 16.8 | 19.4 | 17.1 | | Eastroc H-share | Market-Perform | HKD 125.20 | HKD 138.00 | NA | RMB 8.49 | RMB 7.37 | RMB 8.34 | 14.7 | 17.0 | 15.0 | | Hermes | Outperform | EUR 1,508.50 | EUR 2,150.00 | (54.4)% | EUR 43.12 | EUR 44.66 | EUR 52.67 | 35.0 | 33.8 | 28.6 | | Prada SpA | Outperform | HKD 38.48 | HKD 45.00 | (40.3)% | EUR 0.33 | EUR 0.28 | EUR 0.32 | 12.9 | 15.3 | 13.7 | | Swatch | Market-Perform | CHF 175.05 | CHF 195.00 | 1.4% | CHF 0.03 | CHF 5.60 | CHF 8.67 | N/M | 31.3 | 20.2 | | Richemont | Outperform | CHF 188.50 | CHF 240.00 | 19.1% | EUR 5.96 | EUR 8.07 | EUR 9.33 | 33.9 | 25.0 | 21.6 | | Moncler | Market-Perform | EUR 48.46 | EUR 57.50 | (16.0)% | EUR 2.31 | EUR 2.46 | EUR 2.66 | 21.0 | 19.7 | 18.2 | | Kering | Market-Perform | EUR 292.85 | EUR 270.00 | 20.6% | EUR 4.35 | EUR 6.66 | EUR 9.93 | 67.3 | 44.0 | 29.5 | | L'Oréal | Market-Perform | EUR 383.50 | EUR 405.00 | (15.1)% | EUR 12.25 | EUR 14.11 | EUR 15.63 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 17.2 | | Beiersdorf | Outperform | EUR 80.40 | EUR 95.00 | (44.3)% | EUR 4.44 | EUR 4.29 | EUR 4.59 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.1 | | Unilever | Outperform | GBP 4,986.00 | GBP 5,800.00 | (12.9)% | EUR 3.08 | EUR 3.23 | EUR 3.45 | 15.0 | 14.9 | 14.0 | | Xiaomi | Outperform | HKD 31.88 | HKD 43.00 | (58.4)% | CNY 1.62 | CNY 1.02 | CNY 1.77 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 15.5 | | BYD | Outperform | HKD 93.60 | HKD 136.00 | (45.1)% | CNY 3.58 | CNY 4.90 | CNY 6.90 | 22.6 | 16.5 | 11.7 | | Li Auto | Market-Perform | USD 13.80 | USD 15.50 | (66.2)% | CNY 1.13 | (4.88) | CNY 2.27 | 82.6 | (19.1) | 41.2 | | XPeng | Market-Perform | USD 13.06 | USD 20.00 | (45.6)% | (1.20) | (2.03) | CNY 0.45 | (73.9) | (43.5) | 195.8 | | NIO | Market-Perform | USD 4.76 | USD 6.00 | (15.5)% | (6.85) | (1.62) | CNY 0.49 | (4.7) | (19.9) | 65.5 | | Geely | Outperform | HKD 20.30 | HKD 25.00 | (11.9)% | CNY 1.67 | CNY 1.82 | CNY 2.26 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | | Nike | Outperform | USD 43.22 | USD 68.00 | (61.4)% | USD 2.10 | USD 1.96 | USD 2.50 | 20.6 | 22.0 | 17.3 | | Adidas | Outperform | EUR 180.75 | EUR 245.00 | (26.6)% | EUR 7.46 | EUR 9.71 | EUR 12.45 | 24.2 | 18.6 | 14.5 | | Lululemon | Market-Perform | USD 119.03 | USD 145.00 | (61.0)% | USD 13.26 | USD 11.58 | USD 13.17 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 9.0 | | Accor | Outperform | EUR 47.29 | EUR 55.70 | (21.6)% | EUR 5.01 | EUR 5.65 | EUR 6.41 | 32.1 | 28.4 | 25.1 | | Burberry | Outperform | GBP 1,193.00 | GBP 1,300.00 | (28.5)% | GBP 0.24 | GBP 0.36 | GBP 0.54 | 48.8 | 33.6 | 22.1 | | LVMH | Outperform | EUR 467.95 | EUR 600.00 | (19.2)% | EUR 22.73 | EUR 22.66 | EUR 26.79 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 17.5 | | Richemont | Outperform | EUR 5.96 | EUR 8.07 | EUR 9.33 | 33.9 | 25.0 | 21.6 | | Brunello Cucinelli | Outperform | EUR 83.70 | EUR 108.00 | (36.3)% | EUR 1.99 | EUR 2.26 | EUR 2.65 | 42.1 | 37.0 | 31.6 | | Ferragamo | Outperform | EUR 10.28 | EUR 8.80 | (82.4)% | (0.30) | EUR 0.04 | EUR 0.15 | (34.8) | 273.9 | 70.1 | | Beiersdorf | Outperform | EUR 4.44 | EUR 4.29 | EUR 4.59 | 24.3 | 21.6 | 18.4 | | Unilever | Outperform | GBP 3.08 | GBP 3.23 | GBP 3.45 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 14.0 | | L'Oréal | Market-Perform | EUR 12.25 | EUR 14.11 | EUR 15.63 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 17.2 | ## Conclusion The report emphasizes the **resilience of premium and luxury sectors** despite the broader **weak consumer environment** in China. It suggests that **value-consciousness** and **discretionary spending** among **higher-income consumers** continue to drive demand in these segments. The **cautious outlook** for the **autos sector** is due to **subsidy expiration**, **tax hikes**, and **weak consumer sentiment**. **Japanese consumer brands** are at **varied stages of development**, with **Uniqlo** and **Asics** showing **positive growth**. The **global luxury sector** is viewed as a **potential investment opportunity** with **improved performance** and **lower valuations** compared to historical levels.